Market evolution: Electric heating resistors (CN 85168080) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in electric heating resistors (CN 85168080) over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers electric heating resistors other than those assembled with an insulated former of agglomerated carbon or graphite, classified under HS heading 8516. This is a residual subheading (85168080) complementing the more specific code 85168020 for resistors assembled with an insulated former.

Over the past decade, the EU has undergone a dramatic transformation in this market segment. The data reveals three overarching dynamics: (i) a substantial erosion of the EU's trade surplus as imports have surged while exports have stagnated; (ii) a structural shift within EU production from high-volume to high-value manufacturing; and (iii) a reconfiguration of global supply chains involving the rapid rise of new suppliers in the Western Balkans and Asia alongside the collapse of exports to Russia. Together, these trends point to a sector that is increasingly exposed to global competition while simultaneously repositioning itself toward premium product segments.

1. The EU's Declining Trade Surplus: A Decade of Import-Led Convergence

The most striking macro-level development over 2015–2025 is the dramatic narrowing of the EU's trade surplus in electric heating resistors. What was once a comfortable positive balance has been substantially eroded by import growth that far outpaced export performance.

The trade balance has shrunk by 85% in value terms

Between the first and last available periods, the EU's trade surplus declined by 85.2%, falling from €225.5 million in 2015 to just €33.3 million in 2025. The balance peaked at €247.2 million at an intermediate point before collapsing to its current level.

Imports have more than doubled while exports have flatlined

The root cause of the balance deterioration is an asymmetry in growth trajectories. EU imports of electric heating resistors more than doubled in value, rising by 104.2% from €200.6 million to €409.6 million. Import volumes grew by 73.3%, from 11,751 tonnes to 20,367 tonnes. In contrast, exports grew by a modest 3.9% in value terms, and critically, export volumes actually declined by 28.5%, from 19,497 tonnes to 13,941 tonnes.

Import reliance remains moderate but has shifted in character

Despite the dramatic import growth, the EU's net import reliance remained negative (indicating net exporter status) throughout the period, moving from -14.9% to -12.2%. However, this masks a structural shift: the EU is increasingly absorbing foreign supply for domestic consumption while simultaneously reducing its volume-based export footprint. The EU remains a net exporter in nominal terms, but the margin has thinned considerably.

2. The Upmarket Pivot: From Volume Producer to High-Value Specialist

Beneath the aggregate trade figures lies a profound structural transformation in EU production. The data reveals a clear pattern of strategic repositioning: EU manufacturers have been shedding volume-based production while concentrating on higher-value output, a shift that is reflected in both production statistics and trade price differentials.

EU production volumes have halved while values have surged

The most dramatic evidence of this shift comes from EU production data. Between the first and last available periods:

Production volumes fell by 58.3% — nearly halved — while production value rose by 77.3%. This implies that the average unit value of EU-produced electric heating resistors increased more than fourfold over the period. EU manufacturers have clearly moved away from commoditised, high-volume segments and toward specialised, higher-margin products.

Export prices significantly exceed import prices

This upmarket positioning is confirmed by trade price differentials. Throughout the period, EU export unit values have consistently exceeded import unit values, and the gap has widened:

The EU export premium over imports expanded from 28% to 58%, indicating that EU producers are competing in increasingly differentiated product segments. Export prices rose by 45.4% while import prices rose by only 17.8%, suggesting that the EU's competitive advantage lies in quality, customisation, or technical complexity rather than cost.

Central and Eastern European members have emerged as production hubs

The specialisation analysis reveals that the most specialised EU producers in this product are concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe:

Romania stands out with an RCA of 8.03, indicating extreme specialisation. Hungary and Bulgaria also show strong comparative advantages. This geographic concentration suggests that lower labour costs in Eastern Europe have supported the volume-based segments of production, while Western European members (notably Italy and Germany) focus on higher-value segments.

On the import side, the largest EU importers are Germany (€56.1 million, +9.5%), Italy (€57.0 million, +128.8%), Hungary (€37.8 million, +203.7%), Belgium (€48.4 million, +157.4%), and France (€32.6 million, +114.0%). Italy's import growth is particularly noteworthy at 128.8%, likely reflecting the country's strong role in re-exporting and integrating foreign components into finished products.

3. Shifting Global Partnerships: The Rise of New Suppliers and the Collapse of Russian Demand

The period 2015–2025 witnessed a significant reconfiguration of the EU's trade partnerships for electric heating resistors, driven by geopolitical events, nearshoring trends, and the emergence of new competitive suppliers.

China remains the dominant import source but the supplier base has diversified

China was and remains the EU's largest supplier of imports, with import values growing from €70.3 million to €123.7 million (+76.0%). However, China's share of the total import market has declined as other suppliers have grown even faster:

The most striking development is the emergence of Serbia and North Macedonia as major suppliers. Serbia's exports to the EU surged from under €1 million to €28.4 million, while North Macedonia grew from negligible levels to €16.4 million. This suggests that Western Balkan countries have successfully attracted investment in resistor manufacturing, likely benefiting from EU integration processes, proximity, and lower labour costs. India also more than tripled its exports to the EU, growing by 239.8%.

The import concentration index (HHI) confirms this diversification, declining from 1,773 to 1,370 (-22.8%) by value. While still in the "moderately concentrated" range, the trend toward a broader supplier base reduces single-source dependency risks.

EU exports to Russia have collapsed entirely following geopolitical upheaval

The most dramatic shift on the export side has been the complete collapse of exports to Russia. From €33.4 million in 2015, exports fell to just €5,027 in 2025 — effectively zero, representing a -100% decline. This is almost certainly attributable to EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, combined with the broader geopolitical decoupling. Russia was among the EU's top five export markets in 2015; its elimination represents a significant loss of market access.

Other key export partners show mixed performance:

The United States remains the EU's largest export market and has grown modestly. Norway and Saudi Arabia have shown strong growth, partially offsetting losses elsewhere. However, exports to the UK and Türkiye have declined, reflecting increased local competition or shifting demand patterns.

The 2021–2022 period saw significant price shocks from supply chain disruptions

The volatility and shock analysis identifies three major abnormal price events during the period, all centred on 2021–2022:

The Chinese import price shock of 2022, with a 31.5% abnormal price increase and an abnormality score of 22.8, is particularly significant given that China accounts for nearly 47% of import value. This likely reflects the post-COVID global supply chain disruptions, rising energy costs, and increased raw material prices that affected Chinese manufacturing in 2021–2022. The Turkish import price shock of +23.3% during the same period is consistent with broader regional inflationary pressures.

Among the most volatile trade relationships, Tunisia (CV: 1.36), Morocco (CV: 1.20), and the United Kingdom (CV: 0.71 for imports, 0.60 for exports) show the highest coefficient of variation, indicating highly unstable trade flows with these partners.

Conclusion

The EU market for electric heating resistors (CN 85168080) has undergone a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Three defining narratives emerge from the data.

First, the EU's historical trade surplus has been substantially eroded. While the EU remains a net exporter, the surplus shrank from €225.5 million to €33.3 million as imports more than doubled in value (+104.2%) while export volumes declined by 28.5%. This convergence reflects the growing competitiveness of non-EU suppliers, particularly from China, the Western Balkans, and India.

Second, EU production has undergone a decisive shift from volume to value. Domestic production volumes nearly halved (-58.3%) while production values increased by 77.3%, and export unit prices now command a 58% premium over import prices. This indicates that EU manufacturers have deliberately exited commoditised segments and repositioned toward specialised, high-margin products — a strategy that has preserved the EU's positive trade balance despite the volume decline.

Third, the geographic landscape of trade has been dramatically reshaped. The rise of Serbia, North Macedonia, and India as import sources, the complete collapse of exports to Russia following the 2022 sanctions, and the 2021–2022 price shocks affecting Chinese and Turkish imports all point to a market in flux. The diversification of the EU's supplier base, as reflected in the declining import HHI, offers some resilience but also raises questions about the long-term competitiveness of domestic production.

Looking ahead, the EU's ability to maintain its high-value positioning while managing import dependency — particularly on China, which still accounts for the largest single share of imports — will be the central strategic challenge in this sector. The trade intensity of this sector has risen from 44.5% to 69.7%, confirming that the EU is now deeply integrated into global supply chains for this product, with both the opportunities and vulnerabilities that entails.