Market evolution: Electric heating parts (CN 851690) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of parts for electric heating and domestic appliances (CN 851690) by the European Union with non-EU countries from 2015 to 2025. Over this decade, the EU market for these components underwent significant structural changes, characterized by a strong rise in unit values, a major geographical realignment of trade partners, and a fundamental shift in the EU's trade position from that of a net exporter to a net importer.

The EU's Evolving Trade Position: From Net Exporter to Net Importer

The period witnessed a fundamental reversal in the EU's trade balance for CN 851690. While the value of both exports and imports grew, the dynamics of volumes and prices led to a deterioration of the trade deficit.

A Widening Deficit Driven by Price, Not Volume The EU's trade deficit in electric heating parts widened from -170.6 million EUR in 2015 to -194.4 million EUR in 2025, a 14% increase (General Overview). This deterioration occurred despite export volumes (+1.4%) and import volumes (-1.2%) remaining relatively stable over the period. The primary driver was a significant increase in unit prices, which rose by 37.1% for exports and 31.0% for imports. Consequently, export values grew by 39.1% to 374.6 million EUR, but import values grew by 29.3% to 569.0 million EUR.

Import Reliance Deepens The EU's net import reliance on non-EU partners shifted dramatically. In 2015, the EU was a net exporter with a reliance metric of -11.0%. By 2025, this had swung to a positive 13.1%, indicating the EU became a significant net importer (Net Import Reliance). This shift underscores a structural reconfiguration of supply chains for these components.

Geographical Shifts and Volatility in Key Partnerships

The EU's trading partners for CN 851690 experienced profound changes, with some relationships strengthening dramatically while others weakened or became more volatile.

Import Origins: China's Dominance and Diversification Efforts China solidified its position as the primary source of imports, with the value growing 24.5% to 320.0 million EUR in 2025, accounting for over 56% of total EU imports (Top Partners by Value). However, notable diversification emerged. Imports from Indonesia surged by 277.7%, and imports from Switzerland (likely in part re-exports) increased by 71.5%. A major geopolitical shift is visible in imports from the United Kingdom, which collapsed by 70.5%, a clear consequence of Brexit.

Export Destinations: The Ukraine Phenomenon and Geopolitical Realignment The most dramatic change in exports was the explosion of trade with Ukraine, which grew from 2.4 million EUR in 2015 to 69.5 million EUR in 2025 (+2748%). This makes Ukraine the EU's second-largest export destination in 2025, a shift almost certainly linked to geopolitical events and supply chain reconfigurations. Conversely, exports to Türkiye fell by 44.1%. The United States also became a much more important market, with export values growing by 217.1%.

Price Shocks and Volatility Highlights Trade with certain partners was highly volatile. Imports from the United Kingdom showed the highest volatility (Coefficient of Variation: 0.76), followed by Indonesia (0.82). On the export side, trade with Serbia was most volatile (0.82) (Volatility). Significant price shocks were detected, notably a 58.5% price shock in EU exports to China in 2017 and a 27.7% price shock in EU imports from China in 2022 (Supply Shocks).

Structural Dynamics Within the EU: Specialisation and Production

Internally, the EU's production landscape for CN 851690 remained concentrated, with value growing while certain member states dramatically increased their involvement in the value chain.

Increased Trade Intensity Reflects Integrated Production The EU's trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) increased from 38.3% to 62.7%, and its export propensity rose from 27.4% to 41.6%. This indicates that the EU's domestic production became increasingly geared towards and integrated with international markets.

Concentration and Specialisation in Production EU production value for these parts grew by 27.3% from 787 million EUR to over 1 billion EUR (Production Volumes). However, this growth was unevenly distributed. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export concentration remained low but rose from 933 to 1066, suggesting a slight increase in specialisation among exporting members.

The most specialised producers in 2025, based on Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA), were Slovenia, Romania, Italy, Austria, and Germany (Specialisation). Notably, Hungary underwent a transformation from a minor player in 2015 to the second-largest EU exporter by value in 2025, with its export value growing by over 6000%, positioning it as a major hub within EU supply chains. Germany remained the leading exporter, increasing its share by 25.8%.

Conclusion

The EU market for parts of electric heating appliances (CN 851690) between 2015 and 2025 was defined by three interconnected themes: a deteriorating trade balance driven by rising prices, a dramatic geopolitical reshuffling of trade partners, and an internal restructuring of production and specialisation. The EU shifted from a net exporter to a net importer, with China reinforcing its role as the primary source of imports. The most striking feature of the decade was the surge in exports to Ukraine, a development likely tied to recent geopolitical tensions. Within the EU, production value grew, but the landscape became more concentrated, with Hungary emerging as a major new export hub. These trends point to a sector that is increasingly globalised, price-sensitive, and influenced by geopolitical shifts, with important implications for the EU's industrial resilience and supply chain strategies in the green transition.