Market evolution: Electric blankets (CN 851679) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in CN 851679, a residual customs code covering electro-thermic domestic appliances not classified elsewhere—primarily electric blankets, deep fat fryers, and various other small household heating appliances. The analysis draws on data from 2015 to 2025 and reveals a market fundamentally transformed over the decade. The EU has shifted from a position of near self-sufficiency to one of heavy import dependence, driven almost entirely by surging Chinese supply. At the same time, EU production has collapsed, trade deficits have widened dramatically, and the few remaining export flows have reoriented toward new destinations. The sections below explore these dynamics in detail.

I. A Decade of Rapid Import Growth and Mounting Deficits

Imports have more than doubled in value while export growth has been modest

The most striking feature of the CN 851679 market over 2015–2025 is the sheer scale of import growth. EU imports of these products rose from €697.6 million in 2015 to €1,711.6 million in 2025, an increase of 145.3% (General Overview). By contrast, EU exports grew from €299.3 million to €448.9 million (+50.0%) over the same period—a respectable increase, but one that pales beside the import surge. As a result, the trade balance deteriorated sharply, widening from a deficit of €398.3 million in 2015 to €1,262.7 million in 2025, a worsening of 217%.

Volume growth tells the same story—imports surged while exports stagnated

In tonnage terms, import volumes climbed from 97,707 tonnes to 245,443 tonnes (+151.2%), while export volumes barely moved, rising from 20,140 tonnes to just 20,749 tonnes (+3.0%). The supplementary unit data—measured in number of pieces—confirms the pattern: imports grew from 79.1 million items to 140.7 million items (+77.9%), while exports edged up from 6.5 million to 9.2 million items (+42.5%). The divergence between the tonnage and piece-count growth rates for imports suggests that average product weight has increased over time, possibly reflecting a shift toward heavier appliances such as deep fat fryers.

Prices diverged: export unit values rose while import prices remained flat

Despite the volume surge, average import prices per tonne remained broadly stable, moving from €7,140/t to €6,973/t (−2.3%). This indicates that the growth in import value was overwhelmingly volume-driven rather than price-driven. On the export side, unit values rose significantly from €14,860/t to €21,634/t (+45.6%), suggesting that EU exports have shifted toward higher-value, more specialised products. The gap between export and import unit prices—exports at roughly three times the import price per tonne—points to a qualitative divergence: the EU increasingly imports mass-market appliances while exporting niche, higher-specification goods.

II. China's Dominance and the Collapse of EU Production

China now accounts for the overwhelming majority of EU imports

China's share of EU imports in this product category is remarkable. In 2015, Chinese imports stood at €596.9 million; by 2025, they had reached €1,625.1 million (+172.3%) (Top partners). This means China supplied approximately 95% of all EU imports by value in 2025. No other partner comes close:

The import concentration index (HHI) rose from 7,354 to 9,092 (+23.6%), reflecting this growing dominance by a single supplier (Concentration). An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered highly concentrated; at over 9,000, the import side of this market is essentially a Chinese monopoly.

EU production has declined dramatically

Production data confirms that the import surge has coincided with—indeed, largely replaced—domestic manufacturing. EU production in this category fell from 23.8 million items (valued at €731.1 million) in 2015 to just 9.3 million items (valued at €210.0 million) in 2025, declines of 60.9% in volume and 71.3% in value (Production volumes). The net import reliance ratio—which measures the trade deficit as a share of apparent consumption—soared from 5.1% to 85.4% over the decade, confirming that the EU has moved from near-autonomy to deep dependence on external supply (Net import reliance).

Specialisation patterns reflect a hollowed-out EU industrial base

Among EU Member States, France remains the most specialised producer with an RCA of 3.34 in 2025, followed at a distance by Slovakia (1.45), Poland (1.12), Spain (1.11), and Germany (1.08) (Specialisation). However, many smaller Member States—Malta, Cyprus, Ireland, Finland, Luxembourg—show near-zero specialisation, indicating that production is concentrated in a handful of countries. Germany remains the largest single importer by Member State (€261.8M in 2025), followed by the Netherlands (€364.8M), France (€224.8M), and Spain (€133.4M), confirming that demand is geographically dispersed even as supply is not.

III. A Resilient Export Base with Emerging Destinations and Notable Volatility

EU exports have shifted toward higher-value goods and new markets

While the EU's export footprint in CN 851679 is dwarfed by imports, it remains substantial and has undergone a notable qualitative transformation. Export unit values rose from €14,860/t to €21,634/t (+45.6%), and the supplementary price per item edged up from €46.18 to €48.59 (+5.2%). This suggests that EU manufacturers have moved upmarket, focusing on higher-specification products where they retain a competitive edge. The export price premium over imports—roughly 3:1 on a per-tonne basis—underscores this strategic repositioning.

Ukraine and Norway emerged as fast-growing export destinations

The most dramatic shift on the export side has been the rise of Ukraine as a destination. EU exports to Ukraine surged from €1.8 million in 2015 to €35.8 million in 2025, an increase of 1,852% (Top partners). Norway also grew strongly, from €10.3 million to €23.8 million (+132.2%). Meanwhile, traditional markets held steady or grew: the United Kingdom (the largest single destination at €63.8 million), Switzerland (€79.2 million, +87.1%), and the United States (€32.6 million, +68.0%). The export HHI declined slightly from 897 to 775 (−13.6%), indicating a modest diversification of export destinations.

Notably, EU exports to China fell from €32.9 million to €19.7 million (−40.1%), a reversal that may reflect growing Chinese self-sufficiency in these product categories.

The product mix reveals deep fat fryers as a significant sub-category

At the sub-product level, imports of CN 85167970 (other electro-thermic domestic appliances, excluding deep fat fryers) reached €1,507.8 million in 2025, while CN 85167920 (electric deep fat fryers) accounted for €203.2 million (Product segment breakdown). On the export side, the residual category (85167970) dominated at €418.8 million, while deep fat fryers contributed only €30.1 million. This asymmetry—strong imports of deep fat fryers but limited exports—suggests that this sub-segment has been almost entirely captured by Asian (predominantly Chinese) manufacturers.

Supply shocks and price volatility have been concentrated in a few events

The volatility analysis identifies three notable shock events over the period (Supply shocks):

1. Russia (2019, exports): A price shock with an abnormality score of 37.6 and a +43.7% shift, representing 2.5% of export value. This likely reflects pre-sanctions trade adjustments or currency effects.
2. Morocco (2022, exports): A price shock (+73.1% shift, abnormality 11.1), accounting for 1.1% of export value—possibly a one-off contract or data anomaly.
3. China (2022, imports): A price shock with a +33.0% shift and an abnormality score of 9.0, affecting 100% of import value. This aligns with the global supply-chain disruptions and energy cost spikes of 2022, which pushed up Chinese export prices across many categories.

Among import partners, Switzerland showed the highest volatility (coefficient of variation of 0.75), while Korea showed the lowest (0.15), reflecting the stabilising effect of long-standing trade relationships. On the export side, Ukraine exhibited the highest volatility (CV of 1.24), unsurprising given the geopolitical disruptions of 2022–2025.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 851679 has undergone a profound structural transformation over the 2015–2025 period. What was once a near-balanced market with substantial domestic production has become one characterised by massive import dependence on China, collapsing EU production, and a widening trade deficit that exceeded €1.26 billion by 2025. China's dominance—supplying roughly 95% of imports by value—represents one of the most extreme cases of single-supplier concentration in EU trade, with import HHI levels far exceeding standard thresholds for market concentration risk.

At the same time, the EU retains a viable, if much smaller, export base that has pivoted toward higher-value goods and diversified toward new markets, notably Ukraine, Norway, and Switzerland. The export side also shows lower concentration and lower volatility than the import side, suggesting greater resilience. However, the net import reliance ratio of 85.4% signals significant vulnerability to supply disruptions, tariff changes, or geopolitical shifts affecting the EU–China trade relationship. For policymakers and industry stakeholders, this market offers a clear case study in the consequences of deindustrialisation in low-technology consumer goods—and a potential reference point for ongoing debates about EU economic security and supply-chain resilience.