Market evolution: Copper waste and scrap (CN 74040010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of copper waste and scrap (CN 74040010) by the European Union with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The product covers waste and scrap of refined copper, excluding certain unwrought shapes, ashes, residues, and primary battery waste. As a critical secondary raw material for the circular economy and copper-intensive industries, this commodity is central to Europe's resource security and sustainability ambitions.

The decade under review reveals a market fundamentally reshaped by three converging forces: a structural surge in global copper prices, a dramatic reorientation of the EU's trade position from net importer to net exporter, and a notable intensification of geopolitical risks in sourcing patterns. Export value rose by 228.4%, far outstripping the 19.5% growth in physical volumes—a clear signal that price appreciation, not capacity expansion, was the dominant driver of trade value growth. Meanwhile, the EU's net import reliance swung from +44.6% in 2015 to −31.0% in 2025, signifying a decisive shift toward net exporter status.

1. The Price-Led Boom: How Commodity Cycles Transformed Trade Values

1.1 Prices more than doubled across both import and export flows

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic escalation of unit prices. Export unit prices rose from €2,282/t in 2015 to €6,273/t in 2025 (+174.9%), while import unit prices climbed from €3,925/t to €8,360/t (+113.0%). These increases far exceeded physical volume growth and were the primary engine behind the surge in trade values.

Source: Trade Overview

1.2 Export values surged nearly seven times faster than physical volumes

Export value grew by 228.4% while volumes increased only 19.5%, meaning that over 90% of the value growth was attributable to price appreciation rather than increased shipments. For imports, the divergence was even more extreme: value rose 75.5% despite a 17.6% decline in quantity, implying that price increases alone were responsible for more than offsetting the volume contraction. This pattern is consistent with the global copper cycle, where prices rallied sharply from post-2015 lows through 2021 and remained elevated, reflecting demand from electrification, renewable energy, and supply constraints.

1.3 The production dimension confirms a structural price environment

EU domestic production of secondary copper raw materials grew from 475,200 tonnes (€1,628M) to 510,000 tonnes (€2,100M), a volume increase of just 7.3% against a value increase of 29.0%. The unit value of domestic production thus rose from approximately €3,426/t to €4,118/t (+20.2%), confirming that price dynamics permeated the entire market, not only trade flows.

2. From Net Importer to Net Exporter: A Structural Reorientation of the EU's Trade Position

2.1 The EU's net import reliance swung from positive to negative

Perhaps the most consequential structural shift in this market was the EU's transition from net importer to net exporter of copper waste and scrap. The net import reliance moved from +44.6% in 2015 to −31.0% in 2025, a swing of approximately 75 percentage points. In 2015, the trade deficit stood at −€721.8M; by 2025, it had narrowed to −€737.1M in value terms, but the underlying volumes told a different story: imports fell 17.6% while exports rose 19.5%.

Source: Net Import Reliance

2.2 Export propensity and trade intensity confirm the EU's deepening outward orientation

The export propensity rose from 144.0% to 150.6%, indicating that the EU exported more copper scrap than it produced domestically—a sign of strong international demand pulling scrap from multiple collection channels. Trade intensity also increased from 113.6% to 122.3%, reflecting a market in which cross-border flows grew faster than domestic production.

2.3 China became the dominant export destination, absorbing a growing share of EU scrap

Among export partners, China's share grew dramatically. EU exports to China rose from €242.8M to €673.1M (+177.2%), making China by far the largest single destination and representing approximately 59% of total export value by 2025. Japan emerged as another fast-growing market, surging from just €1.5M to €52.3M (+3,317%), while exports to India (+155.0%), Pakistan (+271.6%), and the United Kingdom (+101.8%) also expanded significantly.

Source: Partners (exports)

2.4 Spain emerged as the EU's largest exporter, overtaking traditional flows

Among EU Member State reporters, Spain experienced the most dramatic transformation, with exports soaring from €50.9M to €516.5M (+915.4%), making it the EU's leading exporter by value in 2025. Italy's exports also grew strongly (+464.5% to €169.2M), while Germany retained a significant but more moderate export presence (+60.4% to €126.2M). On the import side, Belgium's imports surged from €96.8M to €570.8M (+489.8%), and Poland's imports exploded from a negligible €0.8M to €125.7M, suggesting rapid industrial expansion in copper recycling or processing capacity.

3. Rising Concentration Risks and Geopolitical Sensitivities in Sourcing Patterns

3.1 Import source concentration more than doubled, amplifying supply risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import sources by value more than doubled from 1,180 to 2,697, moving from a moderately concentrated market into territory that signals high concentration. This was driven overwhelmingly by the United States' explosive growth as a supplier: EU imports from the US surged from €105.7M to €911.9M (+762.7%), making the US the single largest source of copper scrap imports by a wide margin. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom—the former dominant supplier—saw its share decline from €319.7M to €247.6M (−22.6%).

Source: Concentration (HHI)

3.2 Export concentration declined modestly but China dominance persists

The export HHI decreased from 5,069 to 3,645 (−28.1%), indicating some diversification of export markets. However, the absolute level remains high, and China's overwhelming share (approximately 59% of export value) means the EU remains highly dependent on Chinese demand for copper scrap. This dependency carries strategic risk, given China's history of adjusting import quotas and environmental regulations for scrap materials.

3.3 Price shocks and supply volatility highlighted fragilities in key bilateral relationships

The volatility analysis reveals substantial instability in several bilateral trade relationships. The coefficient of variation (CV) exceeded 0.80 for exports to Hong Kong (1.01), Thailand (1.02), and Russia (0.89), and for imports from Canada (0.86). These figures indicate that trade volumes with these partners fluctuated wildly around their mean, suggesting episodic rather than stable commercial relationships.

The most significant shock events centred on 2020–2021:

The UK import price shock in 2021 was particularly consequential given the partner's 27.2% value share, likely reflecting post-Brexit trade disruption coinciding with the global commodity price surge. Japan's export price spike in 2020 (+89.3%) may reflect opportunistic sourcing during the early pandemic period when global scrap availability tightened.

3.4 The United States became a dominant but relatively stable import source

Among import partners, the United States displayed moderate volatility (CV of 0.56) despite its rapid growth, suggesting a structurally deepening trade relationship rather than a series of one-off transactions. In contrast, imports from Canada (CV 0.86), Mexico (CV 0.61), and Lebanon (CV 0.55) showed higher instability, indicating that these supply lines were more sensitive to episodic disruptions.

Conclusion

The 2015–2025 period witnessed a fundamental transformation of the EU's copper waste and scrap market, driven by the interplay of three forces: a sustained global commodity price rally, a structural reorientation of the EU from net importer to net exporter, and an increasing concentration of supply chains that elevated geopolitical risk.

The headline finding—export value growth of 228.4% against volume growth of just 19.5%—underscores that this was overwhelmingly a price story. The global copper price cycle, fuelled by electrification, renewable energy demand, and supply constraints, lifted the value of every tonne traded. Yet beneath the price surface, deeper structural changes were at work: the EU's net import reliance turned negative, physical imports declined, and the EU became a significant net exporter, principally to China and other Asian markets.

However, this outward orientation comes with vulnerabilities. The doubling of import concentration, driven by the US becoming a dominant source, and the persistent export dependence on China create bilateral dependencies that could be disrupted by trade policy shifts, geopolitical tensions, or regulatory changes. The shock events of 2020–2021 demonstrated that even well-established trading relationships can be severely disrupted during periods of systemic stress.

Looking ahead, the EU's strategic position in copper scrap will depend on its ability to diversify both supply sources and export markets, scale domestic recycling capacity (currently 510,000 tonnes, up only 7.3% over the decade), and navigate the regulatory complexities that increasingly govern the international trade in secondary raw materials.