Market evolution: Copper alloy scrap (CN 74040099) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of copper alloy scrap (excluding copper-zinc alloys) within the European Union over the 2015-2025 period. The product, classified under Customs code 74040099, represents a significant segment of the secondary raw materials market. An examination of the provided data reveals a fundamental transformation in the EU's trade position, moving from a net importer to a net exporter of this material. This shift is characterized by divergent trends in trade value and quantity, significant price inflation, evolving partnerships with key global partners, and increasing market volatility. The following sections detail these main findings.

1. A Structural Shift: From Net Importer to Net Exporter

The most prominent trend over the decade is the EU's reversal in trade balance for copper alloy scrap. This section examines the quantitative and qualitative changes that underpin this structural shift.

1.1 The trade balance has fundamentally inverted

The EU's trade balance for copper alloy scrap has undergone a complete transformation. In 2015, the EU was a net importer, with a trade deficit of approximately €63.3 million. By 2025, this had turned into a net surplus of about €9.2 million. This 114.6% positive change indicates a significant repositioning of the EU within the global copper scrap market.

1.2 Rising values contrast with declining physical volumes

A deeper look at trade flows shows a critical divergence between monetary value and physical quantity.

Source: General Overview trade data

While the total value of both exports and imports increased substantially (by 71.3% and 55.5%, respectively), the physical volume traded fell, especially for exports. This demonstrates that the increase in value was almost entirely driven by a significant rise in unit prices, with the price of EU exports increasing more than threefold.

1.3 The EU's net import reliance has evaporated

The net import reliance indicator, which measures the dependency on foreign supply, confirms this structural shift. The EU moved from a net import reliance of 44.6% in 2015 to -31.0% in 2025. A negative value indicates that the EU is a net exporter. This change, a drop of 169.5 percentage points, underscores the transformation from a supply deficit to a position of external surplus.

2. Diversifying Destinations and Consolidating Sources

The evolution of the EU's trade partnerships reveals strategic adjustments. While the bloc has diversified its export customer base, import sourcing has become slightly more concentrated.

2.1 Export destinations have diversified, with emerging markets gaining prominence

The top export partners show significant growth from several Asian and other non-traditional markets. China remains the dominant buyer, but its share fluctuates. Notable increases were seen with India (+405.8%), Malaysia (+2952.1%), and Hong Kong (+65.0%). This diversification is also reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value concentration, which declined by 36.7%, from 5,189 to 3,285, indicating a less concentrated and more resilient export portfolio.

2.2 Import sources have become slightly more concentrated

In contrast to exports, the concentration of import sources has increased. The HHI for import value rose by 36.0%, from 950 to 1,291. The United States solidified its position as the largest supplier, with its share growing from €157M to €332M (+111.3%). Other major suppliers like Switzerland and Türkiye also saw significant growth. This suggests a consolidation of the EU's supply base for this material.

2.3 Internal specialisation and production support the trade shift

The EU's capacity to become a net exporter is supported by its own production structure. EU production quantity increased by 7.3%, and its value by 29.0%. Specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that smaller member states like Cyprus, Latvia, and Finland exhibit high comparative advantage (RCA > 1) in this product, indicating niche expertise within the bloc.

3. Heightened Volatility and Geopolitical Price Shocks

The period was marked by significant price volatility, which directly influenced trade values and flow patterns. Several identifiable price shocks point to the influence of specific geopolitical or market events.

3.1 Price volatility is pronounced across key partners

Variation in trade values, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV), is notably high for several key export partners. China (CV=0.80), Malaysia (CV=0.87), and Thailand (CV=1.00) show very high volatility in export flows. For imports, flows from Brazil (CV=1.08) and Lebanon (CV=0.60) are particularly unstable. This volatility underscores the market's sensitivity to external economic and logistical conditions.

3.2 Specific geopolitical events triggered measurable price shocks

The data identifies several discrete shock events. The most notable involved the United Kingdom:

• 2018 Import Price Shock: A 58.5% price increase with an abnormality score of 69.5, affecting 18.5% of import value.
• 2021 Export Price Shock: A 73.8% price increase with an abnormality score of 46.1, affecting 10.2% of export value.

These shocks, occurring around the time of the UK's departure from the EU Single Market, likely reflect new customs procedures, tariffs, or logistical frictions that disrupted previously fluid intra-European scrap trade flows.

Conclusion

The 2015-2025 decade witnessed a fundamental reconfiguration of the EU's copper alloy scrap trade. The bloc has transitioned from a net importer to a net exporter, a shift driven not by increasing physical volumes but by a dramatic rise in unit prices, particularly for exports. This change is underpinned by a diversification of export markets towards Asia and a consolidation of import sources, primarily from North America and Europe. The period was also characterized by significant price volatility, with identifiable shocks linked to geopolitical shifts such as Brexit. These dynamics indicate a market that has become more integrated into global trade flows, with prices responding acutely to worldwide supply-demand balances and policy changes, thereby altering the EU's strategic position in the circular economy for copper.