Market evolution: Cold rolled steel coil (CN 720917) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of combined nomenclature code 720917 — flat-rolled products of iron or non-alloy steel, of a width of ≥ 600 mm, in coils, simply cold-rolled, not clad, plated or coated, of a thickness between 0.5 mm and 1 mm — traded by the European Union with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers both electrical (72091710) and non-electrical (72091790) sub-segments, the latter accounting for over 99% of traded volumes. Over the decade under review, the EU's position in this market underwent a profound structural transformation: export volumes collapsed while the import base diversified away from dominant historical suppliers, unit prices more than doubled on the back of global cost and policy shocks, and the EU's net trade balance in this product widened markedly.

I. A decade of eroding export capacity and widening trade deficit

EU export volumes fell by over 57% while import volumes proved more resilient

The most striking macro-level trend is the divergence between EU imports and exports of cold rolled steel coil. Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports declined from 423,214 t to 180,842 t (−57.3%), while EU imports contracted more modestly from 1,109,203 t to 949,194 t (−14.4%). In value terms, export receipts fell 37.8% to €139.2 million, whereas import expenditure actually rose 22.2% to €616.3 million.

The EU's trade deficit in this product thus widened from approximately €280 million in 2015 to €477 million in 2025, a deterioration of 70.1%.

Rising unit prices partially masked the volume collapse

Across the period, unit prices for both imports and exports rose substantially — import prices from €453/t to €649/t (+43.4%) and export prices from €529/t to €770/t (+45.4%). Prices peaked sharply in 2022, with import prices reaching €1,022/t and export prices €1,086/t, before correcting downward in 2023–2025. The 2022 spike reflects the combined impact of post-COVID demand recovery, the energy cost surge triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the continued effect of EU trade-defence measures. Despite these higher prices, the EU's export competitiveness eroded in volume terms, suggesting that cost pressures and competitive dynamics — rather than price alone — drove the contraction.

EU member states concentrated their exports but diversified their imports

On the exporting side, Belgium remained the largest EU exporter throughout (€50.7M → €52.9M, +4.3%), while Germany (€31.5M → €11.2M, −64.4%), Italy (€24.8M → €5.0M, −79.8%), and Spain (€42.3M → €7.4M, −82.5%) all saw dramatic declines. Sweden bucked the trend, rising from €12.2M to €20.9M (+71.0%). On the importing side, Italy (€103M → €171M, +66.1%), Belgium (€97M → €156M, +61.0%), and Spain (€71M → €147M, +107.3%) all substantially increased their intake. The Netherlands, once a significant importer (€29.0M in 2015), saw its imports collapse to just €85,074 by 2025 (−99.7%).

II. A dramatic realignment of the EU's import supply base

The collapse of Chinese and British supply created a vacuum filled by Asian and Turkish exporters

The most consequential structural shift in EU trade for CN 720917 was the near-total withdrawal of two once-dominant import suppliers: China and the United Kingdom. Chinese exports to the EU fell from €151.5 million in 2015 to just €12.2 million in 2025 (−91.9%), reflecting the impact of EU anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Chinese cold-rolled flat steel products, first imposed in 2016 and subsequently maintained. UK exports to the EU collapsed from €91.6 million to €0.6 million (−99.3%), a direct consequence of Brexit and the reclassification of the UK as a third country requiring customs formalities, rules-of-origin compliance, and — for steel — safeguard quota management.

The vacuum left by China and the UK was filled primarily by India, South Korea, Türkiye, and Taiwan. India's share surged from €47.2M to €153.9M (+226.3%), making it the EU's single largest supplier by 2025. Korea rose from €48.7M to €110.2M (+126.3%). Türkiye experienced the most dramatic proportional growth, from just €3.3M to €78.1M (+2,260.9%), while Taiwan went from €0.8M to €70.0M (+8,823.1%).

Import concentration fell as supply sources diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value declined from 2,113 in 2015 to 1,422 in 2025 (−32.7%), moving from a moderately concentrated market closer to an unconcentrated one. This confirms that the departure of dominant suppliers was accompanied by the entry of multiple new sources, reducing single-partner dependency. Conversely, export concentration rose from an HHI of 955 to 1,370 (+43.4%), indicating that EU exports became more reliant on a narrower set of destination markets — principally Türkiye, the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and Mexico.

EU internal specialization deepened in traditional steelmaking hubs

Within the EU, revealed comparative advantage analysis for 2025 shows that Austria (RSCA: 0.623), Belgium (0.582), and Sweden (0.400) are the most specialised exporters of this product, consistent with their integrated steelmaking traditions. Slovakia also displays moderate specialisation (0.240). At the other end, countries such as Croatia (−0.994), Denmark (−0.985), and Hungary (−0.983) show negligible export presence, confirming that EU production and export capacity for cold-rolled coil remains geographically concentrated in a handful of member states.

III. Price shocks, supply volatility, and the evolving vulnerability profile

Three major price shocks marked the decade

The volatility and shock analysis identifies three notable price shock events during the period:

The most prominent shock was a 92.2% jump in export prices to the United States in 2021, coinciding with the post-pandemic global steel price rally and the continued operation of US Section 232 tariffs (which, while not directly applied to EU exports permanently, shaped pricing expectations in the transatlantic corridor). The China import price shock of 2018, with an 849.7% shift, reflects the near-complete cessation of low-priced Chinese imports following the imposition of EU trade-defence duties — the residual volumes that continued to trade did so at dramatically higher unit prices. Serbia's export shock in 2021 mirrors the broader global steel cost surge.

Supply-side volatility was highest for newer, less established trade partners

The coefficient of variation in import values was highest for Russia (2.37), China (2.25), Japan (1.17), and the United Kingdom (0.97) — all of which experienced abrupt declines rather than gradual adjustments. Among emerging suppliers, Taiwan (0.86) and Brazil (0.76) also showed elevated volatility. On the export side, Morocco (0.88) and Algeria (0.65) stood out as volatile destinations, consistent with the smaller, more intermittent nature of North African demand. By contrast, Switzerland (0.16) and South Korea (0.15 — for imports) represented the most stable bilateral flows.

The EU's net trade position weakened in absolute terms but improved relative to production

The net import reliance metric, which measures the trade balance relative to domestic production, moved from −29.2% in 2015 to −9.0% in 2025 (where a negative value indicates a net export surplus). This apparent improvement masks the fact that the absolute trade deficit widened: the denominator — EU production — grew substantially over the period, partly reflecting expanded PRODCOM reporting coverage across member states. Meanwhile, trade intensity (the share of trade in total apparent consumption) fell from 36.7% to 15.0%, and export propensity (the ratio of exports to production) dropped from 32.9% to 12.0%. Both indicators point to the EU market for this product becoming progressively more domestically oriented — or, equivalently, less internationally competitive in exporting cold-rolled coil.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for cold-rolled steel coil (CN 720917) was reshaped by three conver