Market evolution: Cold rolled steel (CN 720916) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the evolution of European Union (EU) trade for cold-rolled flat-rolled steel coils (Combined Nomenclature code 720916) between 2015 and 2025. The analysis is based on annual trade data covering imports, exports, prices, partner concentrations, and market structure indicators. The decade was characterized by significant volatility, marked by a sharp price spike in 2021, a fundamental reshaping of import sourcing, and a notable decline in the EU's export competitiveness for this product.
A Decade of Divergent Flows: Stable Imports, Falling Exports
Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's trade pattern for CN 720916 diverged sharply between imports and exports. While import volumes remained relatively stable, export volumes contracted significantly. This divergence was further amplified by a pronounced price increase, leading to a dramatic rise in the trade deficit in value terms.
Import volumes held steady while export volumes halved
Despite fluctuations, the total quantity of imports into the EU remained broadly stable, ending the period at 1,295,820 tonnes, only a 4.8% decrease from 2015 levels. In stark contrast, export volumes fell by 51.6%, from 537,898 tonnes to 260,570 tonnes. This decline accelerated after 2017, suggesting a long-term loss of export market share or production capacity redirection.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import Quantity (t) | 1,361,537 | 1,295,820 | -4.8% |
| Export Quantity (t) | 537,898 | 260,570 | -51.6% |
| Net Trade Quantity (t) | -823,638 | -1,035,250 | -25.7% |
The net import reliance metric, while negative throughout (indicating net importer status), improved by 69.2% from -29.2% to -9.0%, reflecting the relative stability of imports against collapsing exports.
Soaring unit prices drove the trade deficit to record highs
A global surge in steel prices, especially pronounced after 2020, reshaped the financial picture of this trade. EU import and export prices rose by 41.5% and 42.6% respectively over the period, but the most dramatic spikes occurred in 2021-2022.
- The average import price peaked at €1,033/t in 2022.
- The average export price peaked at €1,129/t in 2022.
This price inflation, combined with the quantity trends, caused the EU's trade deficit in value to almost double. It grew from -€312 million in 2015 to -€616 million in 2025, after peaking at -€908 million in 2022. The deficit expansion was driven more by the value of imports (+34.6%) increasing despite stable quantities, while the value of exports fell (-30.9%) on collapsing volumes.
A Radically Reshaped Sourcing Landscape
The decade witnessed a profound transformation in the EU's import origins for this steel product. Traditional major suppliers saw their roles diminish dramatically, while new suppliers from Asia surged to prominence. This shift increased the geographic diversification of the EU's import base.
Traditional partners lost ground as Asian suppliers surged
The most striking changes occurred among the EU's top seven import partners.
| Partner Country | 2015 Import Value (EUR) | 2025 Import Value (EUR) | Percentage Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 254,803,135 | 25,431,105 | -90.0% | Severe decline, likely due to trade defence measures. |
| United Kingdom | 62,866,807 | 2,576,660 | -95.9% | Post-Brexit trade realignment. |
| Korea, Republic of | 31,792,433 | 158,765,388 | +399.4% | Emerged as a top supplier. |
| India | 26,839,816 | 128,941,897 | +380.4% | Emerged as a top supplier. |
| Taiwan | 895,502 | 121,823,636 | +13,503.9% | Became a major player from a negligible base. |
| Türkiye | 3,735,251 | 68,573,004 | +1,735.8% | Significant growth from a regional neighbour. |
| Ukraine | 60,802,974 | 88,076,594 | +44.9% | Moderate growth. |
The concentration (HHI) of imports by value fell by 51.9%, from 2,516 to 1,211, confirming a significant diversification away from a heavy reliance on a few partners (like China in 2015).
Intra-EU production surged, underpinning import dependency
While trade data shows the EU's external flows, production data indicates a robust domestic industry. EU production quantity for CN 720916 increased by 606.3% from 838,163 kg (approx. 838 t) in 2015 to 5,920,000 kg (5,920 t) in 2025. Production value rose even more steeply (+1,529.1%). This suggests strong investment and capacity within the EU, which likely caters to both internal demand and export markets, explaining the resilience of import volumes despite a shifting external sourcing map. The most specialized EU producers are Belgium and Sweden.
View partner concentration data
Navigating Turbulence: Shocks, Volatility, and Strategic Shifts
The period was not linear; it was punctuated by major shocks and heightened volatility that exposed vulnerabilities in supply chains and forced strategic adjustments. The year 2021 stands out as a critical inflection point.
The 2021 global price shock triggered acute market stress
The data identifies 2021 as a year of severe price shocks across key trade relationships. These shocks were characterized by extreme price abnormality and sharp year-on-year shifts.
- EU Exports to the United States: Experienced the most severe shock (abnormality index 35.9), with prices surging 82.2% in 2021, accounting for 23.5% of export value that year.
- EU Exports to Türkiye: Showed a major price shock (abnormality 18.3) with a 51.1% price increase.
- EU Imports from Viet Nam: Underwent a price shock (abnormality 11.9) with a 69.7% price hike.
Export markets faced higher and more variable price conditions
Analysis of price volatility (coefficient of variation) shows that EU export destinations generally experienced more price variability than import sources for the top partners. For instance, the CV for exports to the UK (0.58) and China (0.74) was higher than for imports from major suppliers like India (0.44) or South Korea (0.28). This suggests EU exporters faced more unstable pricing in their key markets.
The specialization indices reveal a structural shift: the EU's export propensity (exports as a share of production) plummeted by 63.6%, from 32.9% to 12.0%, indicating that a growing share of domestic production is being absorbed within the EU or its export capacity is diminishing. Meanwhile, trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) also fell, pointing to a less globally integrated market for EU producers of this specific steel grade.
Conclusion
The EU's market for cold-rolled steel coils (CN 720916) underwent a transformative decade between 2015 and 2025. The core narrative is one of resilient import volumes but a collapsing export sector, set against a backdrop of extreme price volatility and a fundamental realignment of global supply chains. The trade deficit expanded primarily due to the price effect on imports. The sourcing map was redrawn, with China and the UK's roles diminishing drastically, while South Korea, India, Taiwan, and Türkiye emerged as critical suppliers. This diversification reduced import concentration risk but introduced new geopolitical dependencies. The market proved susceptible to major exogenous shocks, most notably the 2021 global price spike, which strained trade relationships. Looking forward, the combination of strong but inward-focused domestic production, a weakened export posture, and a reliance on new trade partners defines a new equilibrium for this segment of the European steel market.