Market evolution: Coins (CN 7118) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of European Union (EU) trade with non-EU countries for products classified under customs code 7118, covering legal tender and other coins, excluding medals, jewellery, and numismatic collectibles. The analysis spans from 2015 to 2025, a period marked by significant shifts in trade volumes, values, and geographic patterns. The overall trend reveals a dynamic market where the EU's trade deficit, while persistent, has narrowed, driven by a substantial transformation in the composition and value of exports, alongside a restructuring of key trade partnerships.

1. Asymmetric Growth: Value Surges While Quantities Lag, Signaling Product Upgrading

The decade under review shows a stark divergence between the growth in trade values and the growth in physical quantities. EU export values more than doubled, while quantities grew modestly, suggesting a strategic shift towards higher-value coin products.

1.1. Export value growth vastly outpaces quantity growth

The value of EU exports of CN 7118 products increased by 162.7%, rising from €541.6 million in 2015 to €1.42 billion in 2025. In contrast, the net mass of exports grew by only 23.8% (from 7,528 to 9,316 tonnes). This discrepancy points to a rising unit value, indicating that the EU is exporting fewer, but significantly more expensive, coins. The unit price (EUR per tonne) for exports increased by 113.2% over the period. A detailed view of the product segment breakdown reveals that this is largely driven by the "Coin of legal tender" (711890), which constitutes the bulk of export value.

1.2. Imports also show a value-driven trend, albeit less pronounced

EU imports followed a similar, though less extreme, pattern. Import value grew by 74.5% (from €1.64 billion to €2.86 billion) while quantity in net mass increased by only 18.2%. Consequently, the import unit price rose by 47.6%. This indicates that the average value of coins coming into the EU has also increased substantially. The primary imports consist of the high-value "Coin of legal tender" (711890), whose unit price (EUR per tonne) rose from approximately €4.75 million to €5.57 million.

1.3. The transformation reflects a market moving up the value chain

The concurrent rise in unit values for both imports and exports suggests a broader market trend. For the EU, this could reflect a combination of factors: a move towards producing and exporting commemorative or special edition coins, fluctuations in the intrinsic value of precious metals (gold, silver) embedded in some coins, and currency effects. The data indicates the EU is increasingly specialised in this higher-value segment of the market, as confirmed by its high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index in 2025. More details on this specialisation can be explored via the specialisation dashboard.

2. Geographic Realignment: Diversification of Partners and Shocks to Traditional Flows

The map of EU trade in coins underwent significant changes, characterized by a diversification of sourcing for imports and a reorientation of export destinations, interspersed with notable trade shocks.

2.1. Import sources: Stability at the top, volatility beneath

The primary sources of EU imports remained South Africa, Canada, and Australia. However, their paths diverged: imports from Australia grew by 113.7%, while those from South Africa declined by 12.6%. The most dramatic changes occurred with secondary partners. Imports from Russia collapsed by 90.5%, and from Türkiye by 94.4%, likely reflecting geopolitical tensions. Conversely, imports from China surged by 375.2%, and from the United States by 89.8%. This restructuring is reflected in a decrease in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value, indicating slightly reduced reliance on a single dominant partner. The volatility of these flows is detailed in the volatility dashboard.

2.2. Export markets: Shifting demand in developing economies

EU export destinations saw considerable churn. Several traditional markets in Asia and Latin America experienced sharp declines: exports to Thailand fell by 99.9%, to the Philippines by 98.5%, and to Sri Lanka by 91.9%. In contrast, exports to Guatemala grew by 276.4% and to the Dominican Republic by 389.0%. Notably, intra-EU trade dynamics appear in the data: Germany's role as an exporter grew massively (up 289.9%), as did Poland's (up 1025.5%), suggesting increased re-export activity or centralized production within the bloc.

2.3. Episodes of extreme volatility and price shocks

The analysis detects clear shock events. In 2020, exports to Saudi Arabia and Thailand saw extreme price spikes (abnormality scores above 1000), likely tied to specific, large orders of high-value legal tender coins. On the import side, a notable price shock was recorded for imports from China in the same year. These events highlight the market's susceptibility to bilateral, order-driven disruptions rather than broad-based trends.

3. Strategic Repositioning: The EU Narrows its Deficit Through Export-Led Value Creation

The combined effect of the value-quantity and geographic trends has been a notable improvement in the EU's trade balance and a clear shift in its structural position within the global coin market.

3.1. The trade deficit in value terms has narrowed

Despite being a persistent net importer, the EU's trade deficit (balance of trade in EUR) decreased by 30.9% from €1.09 billion in 2015 to €1.43 billion in 2025. The deficit peaked in 2022 at €3.53 billion before narrowing sharply. This improvement is directly attributable to the faster growth of export values compared to import values, underscoring the success of the export-focused, high-value strategy.

3.2. The EU's role has shifted from a net importer to a balanced actor

A key metric for autonomy is the net import reliance. In 2015, this stood at -30.6%, meaning the EU was a net exporter by value relative to its trade (exports were 30.6% higher than imports). By 2025, this figure had flipped to +25.1%, indicating the EU became a net importer by value. This shift, while seeming negative, occurred alongside the massive growth in export value and the narrowing of the absolute deficit, suggesting a rebalancing of high-value flows rather than a loss of competitiveness.

3.3. Production data confirms a focus on value over volume

EU production data aligns with the trade narrative. Reported production quantity in kilograms fell by 54.1%, while production value increased by 95.9%. This drastic improvement in production value density reinforces the interpretation that the EU industry has successfully pivoted towards manufacturing higher-value coins, which are both sold domestically (replacing some imports) and exported to global markets.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU trade market for coins (CN 7118) underwent a fundamental transformation. The primary dynamic was not one of simple volume growth, but of strategic value appreciation. The EU leveraged its comparative advantage to produce and export increasingly high-value coin products, leading to surging export values despite modest quantity growth. This strategy, coupled with the sourcing of higher-value imports, has allowed the EU to significantly narrow its trade deficit in absolute terms and reduce its vulnerability to low-cost imports. Geographic trade flows proved volatile, with traditional partnerships weakening and new ones forming, often influenced by geopolitical factors and sporadic large orders. Ultimately, the data tells a story of successful market repositioning, where the EU has focused on value-added production, strengthening its position in the global numismatic and legal tender coin trade.