Market evolution: Butane (CN 27111391) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade performance of the European Union (EU) in liquefied butane with a purity greater than 90% but less than 95% (customs code 27111391) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The analysis focuses on the evolution of trade volumes, values, and prices, as well as changes in the geographical structure of trade and market concentration. The findings reveal a significant contraction in trade volumes, a major reorientation of sourcing and destination markets, and an increase in price volatility and market concentration, largely reflecting broader shifts in global energy markets and EU energy policy.

The Protracted Contraction of EU Butane Trade

The period under review was characterized by a severe and sustained decline in the EU's trade of this butane product, affecting both imports and exports. While prices generally increased, the drop in traded volumes was so profound that the total value of trade also fell substantially.

A Steep Decline in Traded Volumes and Values

The EU's total imports and exports of this butane product collapsed over the decade. Import volume fell from 1.53 million tonnes in 2015 to 752,000 tonnes in 2025, a reduction of 51.0%. Similarly, export volume decreased by 53.4%, from 617,000 tonnes to 288,000 tonnes. These dramatic volume declines directly translated into lower total trade values, with import value dropping by 37.4% and export value by 39.9%. This indicates a structural reduction in the EU's demand for and trade in this specific hydrocarbon product.

Rising Unit Prices Amid Falling Demand

Despite the collapse in quantity, average unit prices for both imports and exports increased over the period. The average import price rose by 27.7%, from €308 per tonne in 2015 to €394 per tonne in 2025. Export prices saw a similar increase of 28.9%, from €359 to €462 per tonne. This price inflation, occurring alongside falling volumes, suggests that the remaining trade flows are at higher price points, potentially due to changing supplier mixes, increased transportation costs, or shifts in the underlying feedstock markets.

The Widening and Then Narrowing Trade Deficit

The EU consistently maintained a negative trade balance for this product, confirming its status as a net importer. The deficit peaked at -€448 million in 2022 before narrowing to -€163 million by 2025, a 35.2% improvement relative to 2015. This narrowing is not a sign of improved competitiveness but rather a direct consequence of the sharper absolute decline in import values (-37.4%) compared to export values (-39.9%).

A Geographical Reorientation of Trade Partners

The trade contraction was not uniform; it involved a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's key suppliers and export customers, driven by supply security concerns and changing regional demand dynamics.

Import Sourcing: The Decline of Norway and Russia, The Rise of Algeria

The EU's import landscape underwent a fundamental shift. Traditional European suppliers saw their market share evaporate. Imports from Norway collapsed by 90.5%, and those from the Russian Federation fell by an even steeper 94.5%, reflecting the EU's deliberate strategy to reduce energy dependence on Russia following geopolitical events. In contrast, Algeria solidified its position as the EU's leading supplier, increasing its share of import value from €127 million to €205 million (+62.0%). The United States also emerged as a more significant, albeit volatile, supplier.

Table 1: Evolution of EU Import Partners by Value (Selected, 2015 vs. 2025)

Export Destinations: Consolidation on Nearby Markets

EU exports became increasingly concentrated on North African markets, while several other destinations disappeared almost entirely. Morocco and Tunisia remained the top two export destinations, though their values still declined. Meanwhile, exports to Egypt, Türkiye, and Serbia effectively ceased (down 99.9% to 100.0%). This suggests a retrenchment of EU exporters to their closest and most established regional markets, abandoning smaller or more distant ones.

Increased Market Concentration and Pronounced Price Shocks

The reshaping of trade flows led to a more concentrated market structure on both the import and export sides. This concentration, coupled with the product's sensitivity to global energy events, resulted in significant price volatility and isolated shock events.

A More Concentrated and Volatile Supply Base

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, indicates that both the import and export markets became significantly more concentrated between 2015 and 2025. The import HHI more than doubled from 2,409 to 5,154, driven by the rising dominance of Algeria. Similarly, the export HHI increased from 2,014 to 3,392. This heightened concentration inherently increases supply risk.

The volatility analysis underscores this risk. Imports from Norway and the Russian Federation exhibited the highest volatility (Coefficients of Variation of 0.66 and 1.20, respectively), reflecting their erratic decline. On the export side, sales to Egypt and Türkiye were extremely volatile (CV >1.3), aligning with their near-total collapse.

Table 2: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for Trade Concentration (by Value)

Distinct Price Shock Events Linked to Global Energy Markets

The system detected several significant price shocks. The most pronounced was a 2021 price shock in exports to Tunisia, where prices surged by 40.1% with an abnormality factor of 4.8. Another major shock occurred in 2022 for imports from Algeria, where prices jumped by 51.1%. These events (2021-2022) coincide with the global energy price surge following the economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the war in Ukraine, highlighting the product's integration into volatile global LPG markets.

Conclusion

The EU market for butane (CN 27111391) underwent a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The period was defined by a halving of traded volumes and values, indicating a structural decline in demand or availability. This contraction was coupled with a decisive reorientation of trade geography: the EU pivoted away from Norway and Russia to consolidate its import relationship with Algeria, while its export footprint shrank to focus on North Africa. Consequently, the market became more concentrated and susceptible to price shocks, as evidenced by the dramatic increase in HHI indices and the detection of major price events tied to global energy crises. Overall, the data paints a picture of a market in structural retreat, becoming smaller, more geographically specialized, and more sensitive to external price pressures.