Market evolution: Aluminium structures (CN 761090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade performance of the European Union in aluminium structures and prepared aluminium products classified under Combined Nomenclature code 761090 over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers a broad residual grouping—including structural parts, plates, rods, profiles, and tubes prepared for structural use—while explicitly excluding doors, windows, prefabricated buildings (heading 9406), and bridges/towers (the latter bundled under sub-code 76109010). Over this decade, the EU's trade in this sector underwent a profound transformation: import volumes roughly doubled, the trade surplus shrank significantly, and the geographic profile of suppliers and customers shifted in response to geopolitical shocks, cost pressures, and evolving industrial strategies. The analysis below is organised around three core dynamics: the erosion of the EU's net trade surplus driven by a surge in low-cost imports; the increasing concentration and geographic re-orientation of trade flows; and the rising role of unit-value differentials as an indicator of structural competitive divergence.

1. The Erosion of the EU's Trade Surplus

The most striking macro-level development over the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic narrowing of the EU's trade surplus in aluminium structures, even as export values continued to grow.

1.1 Export value growth masked by declining volumes

EU exports rose in value from approximately €1.15 billion in 2015 to €1.53 billion in 2025, a cumulative increase of 32.8%. However, this headline figure conceals a more troubling underlying trend: export volumes actually fell by 13.9%, declining from 150,487 tonnes to 129,590 tonnes. The entire increase in export value was therefore driven by rising unit prices, which climbed from €7,639/t to €11,781/t (+54.2%). This pattern—higher values on lower volumes—is consistent with either a shift toward higher-value-added products, or simply a reflection of global aluminium price inflation and cost pass-through.

1.2 Import volumes and values more than doubled

In contrast, EU imports surged far more aggressively. Import values climbed from €493 million to €1.16 billion (+134.3%), while import volumes nearly doubled from 117,555 tonnes to 214,988 tonnes (+82.9%). Import unit prices also rose, but more modestly—from €4,195/t to €5,376/t (+28.1%). The combination of rapidly growing import volumes and only moderate price increases points to the increasing penetration of cost-competitive foreign suppliers into the EU market.

1.3 The trade surplus shrank by nearly half

The structural consequence of these divergent trajectories is visible in the trade balance. The EU's surplus in aluminium structures fell from €656 million in 2015 to €371 million in 2025—a contraction of 43.5%. The EU remains a net exporter in this sector, but its margin of advantage has been substantially eroded. The net import reliance indicator, while still negative (confirming net-exporter status), moved from −8.2% to −4.2%, underscoring the progressive convergence between import and export flows.

2. Shifting Geographies: New Suppliers, Geopolitical Shocks, and Growing Concentration

Behind the aggregate numbers lie significant shifts in the geographic composition of the EU's trade partners, driven by cost competition from emerging suppliers and geopolitical disruptions.

2.1 China and Türkiye dominated the import surge

Two suppliers accounted for the bulk of the import growth. China's exports to the EU in this product category grew from €246 million in 2015 to €667 million in 2025, an increase of 170.8%. Türkiye's growth was even more dramatic in relative terms, rising from €38 million to €165 million (+330.8%). Bosnia and Herzegovina, though starting from a smaller base, expanded from €4 million to €27 million (+557.6%). These gains reflect the cost competitiveness of these producers—particularly China, whose export prices have historically remained well below EU domestic prices.

2.2 Russia's near-total collapse as an export destination

On the export side, the most dramatic shift was the virtual disappearance of Russia as a customer for EU aluminium structures. Exports to Russia fell from €43.5 million in 2015 to a mere €167,000 in 2025, a decline of 99.6%. This collapse is clearly linked to the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The data also reveal a supply shock anomaly centred on 2025 with an abnormality score of 2.4 and a shift of −98.1%, confirming the sanctions-driven nature of this collapse.

Meanwhile, the United Kingdom—the EU's single largest export destination—saw its share grow substantially, from €260 million to €506 million (+94.8%), likely absorbing some of the redirected capacity. Switzerland also grew robustly (+44.1%), while the United States (+10.9%) and Norway (+3.4%) showed more modest gains.

2.3 Trade concentration intensified on both sides

Both import and export concentration (HHI) increased over the period. The import-side HHI rose from 2,914 to 3,664 (+25.7%), reflecting the growing dominance of China and Türkiye. On the export side, the HHI climbed from 1,104 to 1,678 (+51.9%), suggesting that EU exports became more concentrated on fewer destination markets—particularly the UK and Switzerland. This dual increase in concentration introduces vulnerability: the EU is increasingly dependent on a small number of low-cost import sources, while its export base has become more reliant on a handful of neighbouring, high-income markets.

3. Price Divergence, Production Growth, and Competitive Positioning

A third important dynamic concerns the widening price gap between EU exports and imports, alongside a substantial expansion of EU production capacity and the internal specialisation structure of the Union.

3.1 The export–import price gap widened substantially

In 2015, EU exports were priced at €7,639/t against import prices of €4,195/t, yielding a ratio of approximately 1.82:1. By 2025, this ratio had widened further, as export prices reached €11,781/t while import prices stood at €5,376/t, producing a ratio of roughly 2.19:1. This divergence indicates that the EU continued to specialise in higher-value, more sophisticated aluminium structural products, while imports—particularly from China and Türkiye—occupied a lower-cost, higher-volume segment of the market. The product segment breakdown confirms this: within the main sub-code 76109090, export prices consistently exceeded import prices by a factor of roughly two throughout the entire period.

Sub-code 76109090 (main residual category) only.

3.2 EU production expanded strongly in volume

Despite the rising import penetration, EU production of aluminium structures grew substantially. Production quantities in kilograms more than tripled (+203.3%), rising from 978 million kg to approximately 2,966 million kg. Production value roughly doubled from €5.5 billion to €11.4 billion (+106.3%). This suggests that while imports captured a growing share of the EU market, the overall market itself expanded significantly—driven by demand in construction, renewable energy infrastructure (e.g., solar panel mounting structures), and industrial applications. The EU's domestic industry grew in absolute terms even as its relative trade surplus declined.

3.3 Internal specialisation patterns reveal a core–periphery structure

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 highlights a pronounced internal division of labour within the EU. Austria (RSCA: 0.49, RCA: 2.92) and Poland (RSCA: 0.40, RCA: 2.33) are the most specialised EU producers, with production shares significantly exceeding their overall trade weight. Denmark, Portugal, and Croatia also show positive specialisation. At the other end, Malta, Cyprus, Romania, Ireland, and Bulgaria exhibit negative RSCA values, indicating that they are net importers of these products relative to their overall trade patterns. This core–periphery structure—where Central European economies are specialised producers and peripheral economies are consumers—is consistent with broader patterns of industrial clustering in the EU's aluminium fabrication sector.

Among the largest national exporters, Germany remained the dominant EU exporter (€423m in 2025), though it saw a slight decline of 7.9%. Italy (+33.1%) and especially Poland (+166.3%) gained ground significantly. On the import side, Germany (€213m) and France (€208m) were the largest EU importers, with France showing the most explosive growth (+234.6%).

Conclusion

The EU's trade in aluminium structures (CN 761090) over the 2015–2025 decade tells a story of structural transformation. While the Union remains a net exporter and its domestic production has expanded substantially, the rapid growth of imports—driven primarily by China and Türkiye—has eroded the trade surplus by nearly half. The trade profile has become more concentrated on both sides: imports increasingly originate from a small number of low-cost suppliers, while exports are increasingly directed toward the UK and Switzerland. Geopolitical events, most notably the sanctions-driven collapse of exports to Russia, have further reshaped the geographic landscape. The persistent and widening price gap between EU exports and imports suggests that the EU retains a strong position in higher-value segments, but faces growing competitive pressure in standard, cost-sensitive product categories. Going forward, the sector's trajectory will likely depend on the interplay between EU industrial policy (including potential carbon border adjustment mechanisms), global aluminium price dynamics, and the continued capacity expansion in emerging supplier economies.