Market evolution: Aluminium structures (CN 76109090) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in aluminium structures and related semi-finished products (CN 76109090) over the 2015–2025 period. This product category covers a wide range of aluminium-based structural components—excluding doors, windows, bridges, and prefabricated buildings—and serves diverse end-uses across construction, industrial equipment, and infrastructure. Over the decade, the EU's trade position in this sector has undergone a significant transformation: while the Union remains a net exporter, its surplus has narrowed considerably as imports have surged. The analysis draws on trade flow data, partner dynamics, production volumes, and market concentration metrics to explain the main structural shifts shaping this market. For an overview of the product scope, see the Scope & Definitions page.

1. A narrowing surplus driven by import surge

The most prominent dynamic over the decade is the rapid growth of EU imports compared to a more moderate expansion of exports, progressively eroding the EU's trade surplus in this product category.

Imports have more than doubled in value while exports grew by one-third

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 76109090 rose from €489 million to €1.14 billion, an increase of 132.8%. Over the same period, EU exports grew from €1.11 billion to €1.49 billion (+33.5%). The trade surplus therefore shrank from €624 million to €349 million—a contraction of 44.2%. The EU thus remains a net exporter of aluminium structures, but its competitive margin has been significantly reduced.

Source: General Overview — Trade

Import volumes have nearly doubled, indicating strong structural demand

The rise in import value was not solely a price phenomenon. Import quantities increased from 117,059 tonnes to 213,121 tonnes (+82.1%), suggesting genuine growth in demand for externally sourced aluminium structures. Import prices rose more moderately (+27.9%), from €4,175/t to €5,339/t.

EU export prices have risen sharply, offsetting a decline in volume

Interestingly, EU export quantities actually fell by 11.9% over the period (from 144,157t to 126,948t). However, this was more than compensated by a 51.6% increase in unit export prices (from €7,722/t to €11,708/t). This pattern suggests a shift in the EU's export profile toward higher-value, more specialised products—possibly driven by inflationary pressures on raw aluminium and energy costs, as well as a move up the value chain.

The EU's net import reliance remains negative but is converging toward zero

The net import reliance metric—defined as (imports − exports) / production—moved from −8.2% in 2015 to −4.2% in 2025 (an improvement of 48.6%). Negative values indicate a net exporter, so this convergence means the EU is becoming less self-sufficient in this product relative to its trade position, though it still exports more than it imports from outside the bloc.

2. China and Türkiye: the main engines of import growth

The surge in EU imports has been heavily concentrated in a small number of partner countries, with China and Türkiye accounting for the lion's share of the increase.

China dominates EU imports and has more than doubled its share

Chinese exports of CN 76109090 to the EU grew from €246 million in 2015 to €661 million in 2025, an increase of 168.5%. China is by far the largest single supplier, accounting for the majority of import growth. The import Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for value rose from 2,946 to 3,704 over the period (+25.7%), confirming a meaningful increase in import concentration—driven primarily by China's growing dominance.

Türkiye has emerged as a major and fast-growing supplier

Türkiye's exports to the EU grew from €38 million to €165 million (+330.3%), making it the second-largest non-EU supplier by 2025. This rapid expansion likely reflects Türkiye's competitive cost structure, its proximity to the EU, and its established aluminium processing industry. Bosnia and Herzegovina also saw a very large proportional increase (+557.6%), albeit from a smaller base.

Source: Top Partners

EU exports are diversified but increasingly concentrated on the UK and Switzerland

On the export side, the United Kingdom remains the EU's largest single destination, with exports growing from €239 million to €490 million (+104.8%). This is particularly notable given that the UK left the EU single market during this period; post-Brexit trade arrangements appear not to have significantly dented demand for EU aluminium structures. Switzerland is the second-largest destination (+43.6%). However, the export HHI also increased from 1,080 to 1,681 (+55.7%), indicating growing concentration in export destinations.

The collapse of EU exports to Russia marks a geopolitical rupture

One of the most striking changes is the near-total elimination of EU exports to the Russian Federation: from €43 million in 2015 to just €167,383 in 2025 (−99.6%). This reflects the impact of EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The coefficient of variation for EU-Russia trade in this product is 0.78, confirming high volatility driven by this structural break. This supply shock is documented in the Volatility & Shocks section.

3. Resilient domestic production and shifting competitive specialisation

Despite the import surge, EU domestic production of aluminium structures has grown substantially, and certain Member States have consolidated strong competitive positions.

EU production has more than tripled in volume

EU production of CN 76109090 grew from 978 million kg in 2015 to 2.97 billion kg in 2025 (+203.3%). The production value rose from €5.54 billion to €11.43 billion (+106.3%). This expansion has occurred alongside the import growth, indicating that the increase in imports has supplemented—rather than substituted—domestic output, consistent with rising overall demand for aluminium structures in the EU (e.g., driven by construction activity, renewable energy infrastructure, and transport).

Trade intensity has increased significantly

The EU's trade intensity—defined as (exports + imports) / production—rose from 13.3% to 21.5% (+61.2%). This indicates that international trade has become a larger share of the overall market, reflecting deeper integration of EU producers into global value chains, or increased reliance on external supply to meet domestic demand. Export propensity (exports / production) also increased from 10.7% to 13.8%, confirming that EU producers have become more export-oriented.

Austria and Poland lead in revealed comparative advantage

Among EU Member States, specialisation data for 2025 show that Austria (RSCA: 0.50, RCA: 2.96) and Poland (RSCA: 0.41, RCA: 2.36) are the most specialised EU exporters of this product. Poland's export value grew from €47 million to €124 million (+164.8%) over the period, making it one of the fastest-growing exporters. At the other end, Malta (RSCA: −0.99) and Cyprus (RSCA: −0.76) are the least specialised, reflecting their small manufacturing bases.

Source: Specialisation

Germany remains the largest EU exporter, though its position has slightly eroded

Germany is by far the largest EU exporter of CN 76109090, with €421 million in 2025 (down from €457 million in 2015, −7.9%). Italy is second with €205 million (+31.7%). Germany is also the largest importer among EU Member States (€212 million, +92.3%), followed by France (€203 million, +233.3%) and Italy (€104 million, +318.9%). The particularly strong import growth in France and Italy may reflect booming domestic construction or infrastructure programmes. See the Top Reporters data for further details.

Conclusion

The EU market for aluminium structures (CN 76109090) has evolved substantially over 2015–2025. While the EU remains a net exporter, its trade surplus has narrowed by 44% as imports—particularly from China and Türkiye—have surged. EU domestic production has more than tripled in volume, but trade intensity has also increased significantly, indicating a more open and globally integrated market. On the export side, the EU has maintained strong positions in the UK, Switzerland, and the US, while geopolitical events (notably sanctions on Russia) have reshaped trade flows. Rising export prices suggest a shift toward higher-value products, even as volumes have declined. The growing concentration of both imports and exports raises questions about supply-chain resilience, particularly given China's dominant position as a supplier. Looking ahead, the interplay between rising domestic production capacity, competitive pressures from Asian and Turkish suppliers, and evolving EU industrial and trade policy will shape the next phase of this market's development.