Market evolution: Aluminium doors and windows (CN 761010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade evolution of aluminium doors, windows, and their frames (Customs code 761010) by the European Union with non-EU countries over the 2015-2025 period. Despite its maturity, the market has demonstrated significant dynamism. The EU consistently maintained a strong net exporter position, yet its imports grew at a faster pace, driven by shifts in sourcing from neighbouring and emerging economies. The period was marked by substantial growth in trade values, changing partnership patterns, and notable price volatility, reflecting broader economic and geopolitical currents.

1. Resilient and Expanding Export Base

The EU's export sector for aluminium fenestration products showed robust and sustained growth over the decade, establishing itself as a net exporter and strengthening its global market position.

1.1 Strong Growth in Export Value and Volume

EU exports to the world grew substantially, with the total value increasing by 55.9% from €507 million in 2015 to €790 million in 2025. While the physical quantity exported (by weight) rose by a more modest 15.2%, from 49,031 tonnes to 56,477 tonnes, the value growth was significantly amplified by a 35.3% increase in average unit prices (from €10,337 to €13,986 per tonne). This indicates a shift towards higher-value products or inflationary pressures. The export performance by item count was also strong, with volumes rising 29.0% from 2.89 million to 3.73 million items (General Overview).

1.2 Geographical Diversification of Key Partners

The export landscape is dominated by geographically close or high-income markets, but patterns have evolved. The United Kingdom remained the largest single destination, growing 14.6% to €158 million. Notable developments include:

• The United States surged to become a major partner, with exports increasing 282.2% to reach €118 million by 2025.
• Canada exhibited similar exponential growth (344.5%), rising to €27 million.
• Neighbouring markets like Switzerland (€139 million) and Norway (€52 million) also showed steady growth (General Overview).

1.3 The EU Internal Specialisation and Production Hubs

Export leadership is concentrated within the EU. Germany is the undisputed leader, responsible for €217 million (27%) of EU exports in 2025. Poland emerged as a dynamic force, with exports growing by 358.3% to €122 million, making it the third-largest exporter by 2025. Italy maintained a strong presence at €87 million. The Specialisation data reveals that countries like Slovenia (RCA 8.35) and Poland (RCA 4.62) are highly specialised in this product. This internal production strength underpins the EU's export capacity, with EU production value growing by 95.8% to €17.7 billion over the period.

2. Rapidly Evolving Import Landscape and Sourcing Shifts

While exports remained the dominant feature, EU imports grew more than twice as fast, altering the trade balance structure and highlighting the rising integration of regional and low-cost suppliers.

2.1 Import Growth Outpacing Exports

EU imports surged by 156.0% in value, from €129 million in 2015 to €331 million in 2025. The volume of imports (by weight) more than doubled (106.4%), from 23,693 to 48,913 tonnes. Item counts grew even faster, by 150.2% to 8.14 million items, suggesting imports consist of lighter, potentially more prefabricated products. Import prices rose by 24.0%, a slower increase than export prices, contributing to a widening of the EU's trade surplus to €459 million in 2025 (General Overview).

2.2 The Rise of Western Balkan and Asian Suppliers

The most dramatic changes occurred in the origin of imports. Bosnia and Herzegovina and Albania experienced explosive growth, with their exports to the EU increasing by 313.5% (to €89 million) and 1144.1% (to €14 million) respectively. Serbia also grew by 294.0% to €20 million. This indicates a strong trend of sourcing from candidate and potential candidate countries in the Western Balkans. Meanwhile, traditional suppliers like Türkiye grew by a more moderate 62.9% to €51 million, and China grew by 220.1% to €75 million. The UK, now outside the EU, is also a key import source at €28 million (General Overview).

2.3 Diverse EU Import Destinations

Within the EU, import demand grew across many member states. France saw the largest absolute increase, with imports growing by 227.8% to €72 million. Slovenia and Croatia, geographically positioned to facilitate Western Balkan trade, saw massive increases of 332.6% and 813.3% respectively. Germany remained the largest importer at €53 million, while Ireland and the Netherlands also showed strong growth (General Overview).

3. Market Dynamics: Concentration, Volatility, and Price Shocks

The market's expansion was accompanied by shifts in trade concentration and punctuated by significant price shocks, testing supply chain resilience.

3.1 Divergent Trends in Market Concentration

Trade concentration, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), evolved differently for exports and imports. Import concentration slightly increased (HHI from 1545 to 1656), suggesting a growing reliance on a relatively stable set of major suppliers. In contrast, export concentration decreased (HHI from 1318 to 1145), indicating that EU exports are becoming more diversified across more destination markets, reducing dependency risk (Market Structure).

3.2 Significant Price Volatility and Supply Shocks

The market experienced notable volatility, particularly in certain bilateral relationships. Imports from Albania (Coefficient of Variation, CV: 0.64) and Lebanon (CV: 1.11) were highly volatile. On the export side, flows to the Russian Federation (CV: 0.96) and Saudi Arabia (CV: 0.75) showed high instability. This culminated in several identified price shocks:

• Saudi Arabia (2019): An extreme export price shock (+342.2%) coincided with the country becoming a key market.
• United States (2020): A +20.2% price shock during the initial COVID-19 pandemic year.
• China (2022): A +51.7% import price shock, likely linked to global logistics and energy cost crises.

3.3 Sustained Autonomy and Growing Trade Intensity

Despite rising imports, the EU's net import reliance remained negative (indicating a net exporter status), fluctuating between -1.4% and -4.4% of apparent consumption, ending at -3.0%. More significantly, the trade intensity (share of trade in EU production) more than doubled, from 3.1% to 6.5%, while export propensity (share of production exported) grew from 2.6% to 4.8%. This demonstrates the sector's increasing integration into global value chains (Autonomy & Vulnerability).

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's market for aluminium doors and windows exhibited vigorous growth and structural adaptation. The Union solidified its position as a major net exporter, with strong performance in mature markets and successful penetration into North America. Simultaneously, the import side underwent a transformation, with explosive growth from Western Balkan nations, reflecting EU integration and supply chain diversification strategies. While the EU maintained its overall autonomy, the sector's deepening trade integration and exposure to geopolitical price shocks highlight the importance of resilience. The market dynamics tell a story of a mature industry navigating globalization, regionalization, and volatility to achieve significant expansion.