Market evolution: Aluminium scrap (CN 76020019) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Customs code 76020019 covers a specific category of aluminium waste: faulty workpieces and production-process waste, excluding turnings and shavings (76020011) and general aluminium scrap (76020090). This residual subheading of heading 7602 captures a meaningful segment of the EU's circular economy for aluminium.

Between 2015 and 2025, EU trade in this product category underwent a remarkable transformation. Total trade value roughly tripled, the EU's position as a net exporter intensified dramatically, and the geographic structure of both imports and exports shifted in response to evolving global demand for secondary aluminium raw materials. This report examines the main dynamics behind these changes, drawing on EU-level trade data across the full 11-year window.

Full product description and overview: Scope & Definitions

1. A Decade of Accelerating Trade Volumes and Values

EU trade in aluminium scrap roughly tripled over the period

The most striking headline from the data is the sheer scale of growth. EU imports of CN 76020019 rose from €326 million in 2015 to nearly €996 million in 2025—a 205% increase in value. Over the same period, import volumes grew from 264,682 tonnes to 513,999 tonnes (+94%). Exports followed a similar trajectory: value rose from €317 million to €749 million (+136%), and volumes from 240,663 tonnes to 407,353 tonnes (+69%).

Source: General Overview — Trade

Price increases amplified value growth beyond volume growth

Unit prices rose significantly for both flows. Import prices climbed from €1,233/t to €1,938/t (+57%), while export prices moved from €1,318/t to €1,839/t (+39%). The years 2021 and 2022 saw particularly sharp price spikes, consistent with the global commodity price surge driven by post-pandemic demand recovery, energy cost inflation (especially in Europe following the 2022 energy crisis), and supply chain disruptions. Import prices peaked at €2,088/t, exceeding export prices at their maximum of €1,849/t—suggesting that EU buyers faced tighter or more expensive supply conditions than their export customers.

The EU's net exporter position deepened substantially

The EU trade balance for CN 76020019 shifted from a modest deficit of €9 million in 2015 to a deficit of €247 million in 2025, reaching a trough of €458 million in earlier years. Net import reliance—the share of domestic consumption met by imports minus exports—moved from −15.5% to −81.0%. A negative value indicates net export status; this dramatic deepening implies that the EU has become a major supplier of aluminium waste to global markets, channelling far more material outward than it absorbs.

Source: Net Import Reliance

This trend reflects the EU's large installed base of aluminium-consuming industries (automotive, construction, packaging) that generate substantial post-consumer and industrial scrap, combined with expanding collection and sorting infrastructure. Simultaneously, global demand for aluminium scrap—particularly from fast-growing Asian economies seeking cost-competitive secondary raw materials—pulled EU volumes outward.

2. Shifting Geographic Flows: New Destinations and New Sources

Export destinations pivoted decisively toward India, Türkiye, and Thailand

The export side shows the most dramatic geographic reorientation. India emerged as the dominant destination, growing from €80 million to €214 million (+168%), and now absorbing nearly 29% of EU export value. The most explosive growth, however, came from two other partners:

• Türkiye surged from €6.4 million to €65.4 million (+923%), reflecting the country's rapid expansion of secondary aluminium smelting capacity and its strategic position as a gateway between European scrap supply and Middle Eastern/Asian demand.
• Thailand rocketed from under €1 million to €65 million—an extraordinary 8,415% increase—suggesting the emergence of new processing hubs in Southeast Asia.

Meanwhile, China—once a major buyer—declined from €91 million to €62 million (−31%). This is consistent with China's tightening import restrictions on scrap materials implemented from 2018 onward under its "National Sword" policy and subsequent solid waste import bans.

Source: Top Partners — Exports

Imports diversified, with the UK becoming a leading supplier

On the import side, Switzerland remained the largest single supplier throughout the period, rising from €112 million to €198 million (+78%). The most notable shift was the United Kingdom's emergence as a major source, growing from €40 million to €179 million (+346%)—a clear consequence of post-Brexit trade flows being recorded as extra-EU transactions rather than intra-EU movements.

Other notable import growth came from Australia (+506%, from €8 million to €49 million), Israel (+294%, from €16 million to €63 million), and Norway (+183%, from €17 million to €49 million). The United Arab Emirates was the only top partner to see a decline (−33%, from €22 million to €15 million), possibly reflecting the UAE's own growing domestic recycling capacity.

Source: Top Partners — Imports

Market concentration declined as trade diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which measures the concentration of trade among partners, fell meaningfully for both flows:

An HHI below 1,500 is generally considered an unconcentrated market; by 2025, both import and export flows had reached this threshold, indicating a healthier diversification of trading relationships. This reduces the EU's vulnerability to disruptions from any single partner.

Source: Concentration (HHI)

3. Market Structure, Price Shocks, and the Role of EU Member States

Production volumes grew while production value declined—signalling a price squeeze

EU domestic production of CN 76020019 (as captured by PRODCOM data, which uses a slightly different scope) rose from 1.33 billion kg to 1.50 billion kg (+13%) over the period. However, production value fell from €2.56 billion to €2.20 billion (−14%). This divergence suggests that unit production values were squeezed, possibly reflecting increased competition, shifts in the aluminium price cycle, or compositional changes in the quality/type of waste produced.

Source: Production Volumes

Germany, Spain, Italy, and Greece dominated intra-EU trade

Among EU member states acting as reporters, Germany was the largest single player on both sides: importing €252 million and exporting €179 million in 2025. Spain emerged as a major exporter (+255%, reaching €158 million), and Greece became a surprising import powerhouse, rising from €18 million to €184 million (+926%)—the highest growth rate among major importers.

Italy showed strong growth on both flows: imports up 115% to €170 million and exports up 215% to €103 million, suggesting Italy serves as both a collector and a re-export hub within the European scrap ecosystem.

Source: Top Reporters — Imports and Top Reporters — Exports

Specialisation patterns reveal structural roles within the EU

The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows that smaller EU economies—Cyprus (RSCA 0.86), Croatia (0.79), Slovenia (0.56), Bulgaria (0.44)—are the most specialised in this product, though their absolute trade volumes remain modest. France (RSCA 0.40) is the only large economy among the top five specialised exporters, reflecting its strong industrial scrap generation base (18.2% of EU production share).

At the other end, Ireland (RSCA −1.00), Latvia (−0.78), and Finland (−0.50) show negligible or negative specialisation, meaning they are net importers or have minimal involvement in this trade.

Source: Specialisation

Price shocks were concentrated in 2018 and 2021

The volatility analysis identified several significant price shocks:

The 2018 UK import price shock (+103%) is notably large and may reflect early Brexit-related trade reclassification effects or supply disruptions. The 2021 shocks across multiple partners (Norway imports, India exports) align with the global commodity supercycle that year, driven by post-COVID demand recovery, logistics bottlenecks, and surging energy costs. India, absorbing 32.5% of EU export value, transmitted significant price volatility into the EU market.

Among partner relationships, Thailand (CV 1.20) and Malaysia (CV 1.16) on the export side showed the highest volatility, while Switzerland was the most stable import partner (CV 0.10), reflecting its role as a steady, proximate supplier.

Source: Volatility and Supply Shocks

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, EU trade in aluminium waste and scrap under CN 76020019 underwent three fundamental shifts:

1. Scale: Trade volumes and values roughly tripled, driven by rising global demand for secondary aluminium raw materials and amplified by significant unit price increases, particularly during the 2021–2022 commodity price surge.

2. Geography: The EU's export profile pivoted sharply away from China (down 31%) toward India, Türkiye, and Southeast Asia (Thailand up 8,415%). On the import side, Brexit transformed the UK from an intra-EU partner to an extra-EU supplier, while long-standing sources like Switzerland and Norway remained stable. Market concentration fell to unconcentrated levels, indicating a healthier diversification.

3. Structural position: The EU consolidated its role as a major net exporter of aluminium waste—its net export reliance deepened from −15% to −81%—suggesting that the bloc generates more scrap than its domestic secondary smelting capacity can absorb. This positions the EU as a critical node in the global circular economy for aluminium, but also implies exposure to destination-country policy shifts (such as import restrictions) and price volatility in key markets like India.

Looking forward, the interplay between the EU's Green Deal ambitions (which favour domestic recycling and circularity), potential export restrictions on scrap (already discussed in policy circles), and continued demand growth from Asian processing hubs will shape the next phase of this market's evolution.