Market evolution: Aluminium parts (CN 76169990) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in articles of aluminium, uncast, not elsewhere specified (CN code 76169990) between 2015 and 2025. Based on annual data for trade with non-EU countries, it examines key trends in value, quantity, prices, trade balances, and market structure. The period was characterized by a significant shift in the EU's trade position, rising import dependency—particularly from China—and substantial growth in both production and trade intensity, despite periods of volatility.

1. A fundamental shift: The EU's transition from net exporter to net importer

The decade under review saw a complete reversal in the EU's trade balance for CN 76169990, moving from a position of net export surplus to net import dependency. This structural shift was driven by stronger growth in import values compared to export values, despite rising unit prices for exports.

• Trade balance reversal: The EU's trade balance for these aluminium articles swung from a surplus of €71.5 million in 2015 to a deficit of €262.5 million in 2025, a deterioration of 467% (General Overview).
• Asymmetric value growth: Import values grew by 106.9% (from €1.01 billion to €2.10 billion) over the period, significantly outpacing the 69.1% growth in export values (from €1.09 billion to €1.84 billion) (General Overview).
• Divergent volume and price trends: Export growth was entirely price-driven, as export volumes actually fell by 19.5% while unit export prices more than doubled (+109.9%). In contrast, import growth was volume-led, with quantities increasing by 51.0% and unit prices rising by 37.0% (General Overview).

Source: General Overview

2. Rising import concentration and the dominant role of China

The EU's import market for these articles became significantly more concentrated over the decade, primarily due to the growing dominance of China. Simultaneously, EU exports remained more diversified, though some emerging partnerships showed high volatility.

• Increased import market concentration: The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value increased by 24.4%, from 2,295 in 2015 to 2,854 in 2025, indicating a move towards a more concentrated supply base (General Overview).
• China's commanding lead: China was the EU's largest import source by value throughout the period. Imports from China surged by 138.5% to €1.07 billion in 2025, representing over half of the EU's total import growth. Its share of total EU imports from non-EU countries rose correspondingly (General Overview).
• Other significant import partners: While China dominated, other key suppliers included Türkiye (+73.7%), the United States (+59.5%), and the United Kingdom (+21.5%). Notably, imports from Viet Nam saw the highest percentage growth among the top partners (+149.8%) (General Overview).
• Diversified but volatile export destinations: EU exports were directed to a wider range of partners, with a slightly decreasing HHI (-12.9%). Traditional partners like the United States (+67.1%), the United Kingdom (+42.7%), and Switzerland (+36.1%) remained the largest markets. Serbia (+643.9%) emerged as a fast-growing but volatile destination, as reflected in its high coefficient of variation (1.30) (General Overview, Volatility & Shocks).

Source: General Overview

3. Domestic production surge and growing integration into global trade

Despite becoming a net importer, the EU experienced a remarkable expansion in domestic production of these articles. This production growth, however, was accompanied by an even greater increase in trade intensity, highlighting the sector's deepening integration into international supply chains.

• Explosive growth in production: EU production volume for CN 76169990, as reported by Prodcom, increased by an extraordinary 2,620% between 2015 and 2025, rising from 542 thousand tonnes to 14.7 million tonnes. Production value also more than doubled (+129.5%) to reach €5.7 billion (Market Structure).
• Increased trade intensity: The trade intensity index (exports plus imports as a share of production) rose from 42.0% in 2015 to 58.1% in 2025. This indicates that a growing proportion of the EU's production in this sector is either destined for or competed with foreign markets (Autonomy & Vulnerability).
• Specialisation patterns: In 2025, the most specialised EU member states in exporting these articles (based on Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage - RSCA) included Italy (RSCA: 0.39), Slovenia (0.35), and Austria (0.32). Conversely, smaller member states like Cyprus (-0.89) and Malta (-0.84) were the least specialised (Market Structure).
• Concentration within the EU: Germany was the leading EU member state for both imports (€452 million in 2025) and exports (€584 million), followed by France and Italy. Poland exhibited the strongest growth in both imports (+193.2%) and exports (+170.9%) among the top member state traders (General Overview).

Conclusion

Over the period 2015-2025, the EU's trade in aluminium articles (CN 76169990) underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc shifted from being a net exporter to a net importer, driven by rapid import growth—led overwhelmingly by China—which outpaced value-added export growth. This occurred alongside a paradoxical but massive expansion in EU domestic production volumes. The result is a sector with significantly higher trade intensity and import dependency. While EU production capacity has grown immensely, its increasing integration into global trade has also heightened its exposure to external market dynamics and concentration risks, particularly from dominant suppliers. The rise in trade intensity and net import reliance underscores the sector's evolving vulnerability within the global market.