Market evolution: Writing ink (CN 321590) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's trade in ink other than printing ink (customs code 321590) between 2015 and 2025. The analysis reveals a market undergoing significant structural transformation. The EU has solidified its position as a net importer, with import value growing steadily while export value has stagnated. However, this headline figure masks profound shifts in the geographic sourcing of imports, the specialization of EU exporters, and the underlying product composition of trade. The period was characterized by the rising dominance of Asian suppliers, the substantial impact of Brexit, and a pronounced shift towards higher-value-added ink cartridges in both trade flows.

1. A Reorientation of Import Sources and a Deepening Trade Deficit

The EU's trade deficit in this product category has widened considerably, driven primarily by a substantial increase in imports. While export volumes grew, their value declined, highlighting a challenging competitive environment for EU producers in international markets.

1.1 Growing Imports and a Widening Trade Gap

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's import value for CN 321590 increased by 11.9%, reaching EUR 1.24 billion. Concurrently, export value fell by 5.5% to EUR 758 million. This dynamic caused the EU's trade balance to deteriorate significantly, from a deficit of approximately EUR -304 million in 2015 to EUR -479 million in 2025—a 57.6% increase in the deficit. Despite this, the EU's net import reliance remained high and relatively stable, averaging around 75% throughout the period.

1.2 The Reshuffling of Major Import Partners

The geographic composition of EU imports underwent a dramatic transformation. The United Kingdom, historically the largest supplier, saw its export value to the EU plummet by 74.0% from EUR 496 million in 2015 to EUR 129 million in 2025, a clear consequence of Brexit-related trade friction. This collapse created a vacuum that was filled almost entirely by Asian suppliers:

Data on top import partners

The combined share of China, Malaysia, and Indonesia in EU imports grew massively, indicating a strategic shift in sourcing towards Southeast and East Asia.

1.3 High Volatility in Key Import Corridors

Trade with several major partners exhibited significant volatility. Malaysia and Indonesia, two of the fastest-growing suppliers, also showed high volatility as measured by the coefficient of variation (0.61 and 0.66, respectively), suggesting their trade flows are subject to considerable year-on-year fluctuations. Notably, a major price shock was detected in imports from China in 2018, characterized by a 251% price shift and an abnormality score of 15.6, which warrants further investigation into product mix changes or market disruptions.

2. Export Specialization and the Persistence of Traditional Markets

EU exports demonstrated resilience in volume, growing by 28.0% to 26,809 tonnes. However, this growth was entirely absorbed by a 26.1% decline in unit prices, leading to the aforementioned drop in total value. The EU's export strategy appears increasingly focused on specific, high-value niches within the broader ink category.

2.1 Geographic Diversification and the Declining UK Market

Similar to imports, the UK's role as an EU export destination diminished sharply (value down 51.9%). The United States solidified its position as the top non-EU market, with exports growing by 77.6% to EUR 124 million. Growth was also robust to emerging markets like Brazil (+123.0%) and India (+126.3%), indicating a broadening of the EU's export base. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports fell from 2484 to 1076, confirming a significant reduction in export concentration and a move towards a more diversified partnership portfolio.

2.2 Divergent National Performances Within the EU

Export performance varied greatly among EU member states. Germany remained the largest exporter but saw its value decline by 30.4%. In contrast, the Netherlands emerged as a major growth engine, more than doubling its export value (+115.0%) to become the second-largest EU exporter. Italy also posted strong growth (+75.4%). This intra-EU divergence is reflected in specialisation data, where the Netherlands showed a strong Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA of 0.47), indicating a clear competitive edge in this product, while Germany's RSCA was a more modest 0.23.

2.3 The Dominance of High-Value Cartridges in Exports

A closer look at the product breakdown reveals the core driver of EU export value: ink cartridges for printers/copiers (sub-code 32159020). In 2025, these cartridges constituted only 32% of export volume (8,572 tonnes) but accounted for 72% of the total export value (EUR 547 million). The unit price for these cartridges was EUR 63,865 per tonne, nearly six times higher than the price for other inks (EUR 11,527 per tonne). This segment is the linchpin of the EU's export competitiveness in this market.

3. Structural Shifts in the Product Mix and Production Landscape

Beneath the top-line trade figures, the composition of traded goods shifted markedly, with profound implications for value capture. EU domestic production data further complicates the picture, showing a dramatic decline in volume.

3.1 The Import Surge in High-Value Cartridges

The growth in imports was overwhelmingly driven by the same high-value cartridge segment (32159020). Between 2017 and 2025, import volume of these cartridges surged by 400% (from 3,455 to 17,285 tonnes), while their value grew by 966% (from EUR 96 million to EUR 1.02 billion). This segment now represents over 80% of the total import value. The price for imported cartridges fell from EUR 27,801/tonne in 2017 to EUR 59,247/tonne in 2025, but remains significantly below the export price, indicating potential differences in product specification or competitive pressure from Asian manufacturers.

3.2 Stable but Lower-Value Trade in Other Inks

Trade in the other ink category (sub-code 32159070) was more stable in both volume and value for both imports and exports. Import volumes fluctuated around 11,000 tonnes, and export volumes were consistently higher (around 18,000 tonnes). However, the unit prices for these "other inks" are substantially lower than for cartridges, underscoring the critical importance of the cartridge segment for trade value.

3.3 A Puzzle: Declining Production Volumes Amidst Growing Trade

A striking paradox emerges from the EU production data. Domestic production quantity plummeted by 68.0%, from 43.6 million kg in 2015 to just 14.0 million kg in 2025. Yet, production value only declined by 15.9% to EUR 197 million. This suggests that EU producers have either exited the market for bulk, low-value inks or have aggressively shifted their own production mix towards higher-margin specialty products, effectively mirroring the trend seen in trade data.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 321590 inks between 2015 and 2025 evolved along three main axes. First, it experienced a profound geopolitical reshuffling of its import supply chains, moving away from the UK and towards a constellation of Asian suppliers, led by Malaysia and China. Second, EU exports demonstrated specialization and diversification, focusing on high-value ink cartridges while reducing dependence on any single partner. Third, both trade flows were dominated by a structural shift towards higher-value ink cartridges, which became the primary determinant of trade values. This shift is occurring against a backdrop of sharply declining EU production volumes, suggesting a fundamental restructuring of the European industry. The market has become more integrated and competitive globally, but the EU's persistent and growing trade deficit highlights the ongoing challenge of balancing import reliance with export strength in a technologically evolving segment.