Market evolution: Ink cartridges (CN 32159020) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in ink cartridges for printers and copiers without an integrated print head (CN code 32159020) over the period 2017–2025. The analysis covers EU trade flows with non-EU countries, drawing on Eurostat data for value, volume, price, partner concentration, production, and vulnerability indicators.

The period under review reveals a market that underwent profound transformation. Both EU imports and exports expanded dramatically in value and volume, yet imports grew far more rapidly, converting a modest trade surplus into a large structural deficit. At the same time, the geographic composition of trade shifted decisively toward East and Southeast Asian manufacturing hubs, while EU domestic production volumes collapsed — even as their value edged upward. These shifts point to a market in which the EU has moved from being a balanced producer-trader to an increasingly import-dependent hub, simultaneously re-exporting significant volumes to third-country destinations.

1. Explosive Growth Concealing a Reversal from Surplus to Deficit

Trade volumes and values expanded at an unprecedented pace

Between 2017 and 2025, EU external trade in CN 32159020 grew at rates rarely seen in mature product categories. EU exports rose from EUR 107.9 million to EUR 547.5 million (+407.2% in value), while export quantities climbed from 1,383 tonnes to 8,572 tonnes (+519.9%). EU imports grew even more steeply, surging from EUR 96.1 million to EUR 1,024.1 million (+966.0% in value) and from 3,455 tonnes to 17,285 tonnes (+400.3%).

Source: General Overview

Import value growth outpaced volume growth, driven by rising unit prices

A striking feature of the period is the divergence in price trajectories. Export prices declined by 18.2%, falling from EUR 78,048 per tonne to EUR 63,865 per tonne — suggesting that the EU increasingly exported lower-unit-value cartridges or faced competitive pricing pressure. By contrast, import prices more than doubled (+113.1%), rising from EUR 27,801 per tonne to EUR 59,247 per tonne. This implies that the composition of imports shifted toward higher-value or more technologically sophisticated cartridges over the period, or that upstream cost pressures were transmitted into import prices.

The trade balance reversed from a small surplus to a deep deficit

In 2017, the EU held a modest trade surplus of EUR 11.9 million in this product. By 2025, this had become a deficit of EUR 476.6 million — the balance reaching a trough of nearly EUR −1.1 billion at its worst. Despite the substantial growth in EU exports, the even faster pace of import expansion made this reversal structurally significant. The EU's net import reliance remained elevated throughout, hovering around 74–75%, confirming that the EU consistently consumed far more ink cartridges from external sources than it produced domestically for export.

2. A Geographic Reorientation Toward Asian Manufacturing Hubs

Import sourcing diversified while pivoting decisively to Asia

At the start of the period, the United Kingdom was the EU's single largest import source at EUR 43.0 million, reflecting pre-Brexit intra-European supply chains. By 2025, Asian producers dominated the EU's import landscape: China led at EUR 174.0 million (+557%), followed by Japan at EUR 163.0 million (+1,880%), Malaysia at EUR 254.8 million, and Indonesia at EUR 147.0 million. The latter two represent the most dramatic shifts: imports from Indonesia surged from just EUR 67,690 in 2017 (+217,132%), and imports from Malaysia rose from EUR 1.2 million (+20,746%). Singapore also emerged as a major source at EUR 72.8 million (+1,617%).

Source: Top partners by value

The rise of Southeast Asian suppliers — particularly Malaysia and Indonesia — likely reflects the strategic diversification of printer manufacturers (HP, Canon, Epson, Brother) away from concentrated production in a single country. This geographic reconfiguration is consistent with broader post-2020 supply-chain resilience strategies.

Export destinations diversified, with the UK and United States as anchor markets

EU exports were historically concentrated on the United Kingdom, which absorbed EUR 61.6 million in 2017 and grew to EUR 174.4 million in 2025 (+183%). However, the most remarkable growth story was the United States, which received EUR 1.4 million of EU exports in 2017 and EUR 94.1 million in 2025 (+6,564%). Switzerland (EUR 72.0 million, +643%), the United Arab Emirates (EUR 33.4 million, +2,559%), and Türkiye (EUR 20.8 million, +1,879%) also grew substantially. Notably, exports to the Russian Federation declined by 27.7%, from EUR 4.5 million to EUR 3.2 million — likely reflecting the impact of EU sanctions following 2022.

Market concentration fell markedly on both sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 2,950 to 1,591 (−46.1%), and for exports from 3,727 to 1,598 (−57.1%). Both measures moved from moderately concentrated territory toward more competitive, diversified structures. This is consistent with the geographic broadening described above: the EU now trades with a wider set of partners on both the import and export sides, reducing single-partner dependency.

Germany and the Netherlands dominate intra-EU reporting

Among EU Member States, Germany and the Netherlands accounted for the lion's share of both imports and exports. Germany's imports surged from EUR 14.6 million to EUR 347.5 million (+2,281%), and its exports from EUR 9.4 million to EUR 249.8 million (+2,571%). The Netherlands followed a similar trajectory, with imports rising from EUR 46.5 million to EUR 469.8 million (+911%) and exports from EUR 42.8 million to EUR 220.1 million (+415%). These two countries are consistent specialisation leaders (RSCA of 0.49 and 0.24 respectively in 2025), suggesting that their large trade volumes reflect genuine competitive positioning — likely linked to the presence of distribution hubs and, in the case of Germany, manufacturing or remanufacturing facilities.

3. Declining Domestic Production, Rising Export Propensity, and Fragilities

EU production volumes collapsed while values crept upward

Perhaps the most telling structural indicator is the evolution of EU production. Production quantities fell from 43.6 million kilograms to 14.0 million kilograms (−68.0%), yet production value rose slightly from EUR 169.6 million to EUR 196.7 million (+15.9%). This divergence implies a sharp increase in the unit value of domestically produced cartridges — the EU appears to have progressively exited mass-market, lower-value ink cartridge production, concentrating on higher-value, possibly remanufactured or specialty products.

Source: Production volumes

The EU became an increasingly outward-oriented re-export hub

The export propensity — the ratio of exports to domestic production — soared from 123.2% to 402.7% (+226.8%). This means that by 2025, the EU was exporting more than four times what it produced domestically, confirming its role as a major re-export and distribution platform for cartridges manufactured elsewhere. Trade intensity (the sum of imports and exports relative to apparent consumption) also rose from 104.5% to 137.5%, indicating that external trade grew in importance relative to the domestic market.

Import supply chains carry moderate volatility risks

The coefficient of variation of import values varied widely across partners. China (CV = 0.26) and Japan (CV = 0.37) showed relatively stable supply patterns, while Hong Kong (CV = 0.96) and Taiwan (CV = 0.89) exhibited high volatility — suggesting episodic or transhipment-driven flows rather than stable trade relationships. Among major Asian suppliers, Indonesia (CV = 0.50) and Malaysia (CV = 0.47) displayed moderate volatility, reflecting the rapid but not entirely smooth ramp-up of new supply chains.

On the export side, Norway was the most stable destination (CV = 0.08), while Australia (CV = 1.25) and Pakistan (CV = 0.87) were highly volatile — consistent with small, irregular orders rather than established distribution channels.

Isolated price shocks occurred but did not derail the broader trend

The shock detection algorithm identified two notable events. A price shock in EU exports to Pakistan in 2022 showed an abnormality score of 33.1 and a +97.3% price shift, though Pakistan represented only 0.5% of export value — indicating a niche, possibly one-off transaction. A more significant price shock was detected in EU exports to the United Kingdom in 2020 (+18.4% price shift, abnormality 2.5). Given the UK's weight in EU exports (48.6% of value at that point), this may reflect post-Brexit customs adjustments, currency effects, or pandemic-related supply disruptions.

Conclusion

The EU market for ink cartridges (CN 32159020) between 2017 and 2025 was characterised by explosive trade growth, dramatic geographic reorientation, and a fundamental shift in the EU's role within global value chains. What began as a balanced trade position with a modest surplus evolved into a deep structural deficit driven by surging imports from Asian manufacturing hubs — principally China, Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore. At the same time, EU domestic production volumes contracted by 68%, while the Union became an increasingly important re-export platform, with export propensity exceeding 400% of domestic output by 2025.

Market concentration declined on both the import and export sides, reflecting meaningful diversification of trade partners. However, this diversification has not eliminated vulnerability: the EU's persistent net import reliance of around 75% and its dependence on a geographically concentrated set of Asian suppliers for the bulk of its cartridges leave it exposed to future supply disruptions — whether from geopolitical tensions, logistics bottlenecks, or shifts in manufacturing strategy by the major printer OEMs.

The data suggest that the EU's competitive advantage in this product has migrated from manufacturing toward logistics, distribution, and the supply of higher-value or remanufactured cartridges. Whether this trajectory proves sustainable will depend on the EU's ability to maintain its re-export role, deepen its remanufacturing capacity, and manage the supply-chain risks inherent in heavy reliance on distant producers.