Market evolution: Printing ink (CN 3215) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in products classified under CN code 3215 — Printing ink, writing or drawing ink and other inks, whether or not concentrated or solid — over the period 2015–2025. The code is a bundling heading that encompasses three sub-classes: black printing ink (321511), coloured printing ink (321519), and other inks excluding printing ink (321590). The analysis relies exclusively on the data provided and focuses on identifying the principal structural, geographic, and price-related dynamics that have shaped the EU ink trade over the past decade.

1. A Sector in Structural Contraction: Falling Production, Shrinking Volumes, and a Widening Deficit

EU ink production has declined sharply over the decade

The most striking feature of the period is the dramatic contraction of EU domestic production. Output by volume fell from 1,116,136 tonnes in 2015 to 654,981 tonnes in 2025 — a decline of 41.3%. Production value contracted by 27.3%, from €3,570 million to €2,597 million, implying a notable rise in average unit production values over the period (the less steep value decline compared to the volume decline indicates higher-value output). This contraction likely reflects a combination of digitalisation reducing demand for traditional printing inks, consolidation of manufacturing capacity, and growing competition from non-EU suppliers.

Export volumes have fallen much faster than export values

EU exports tell a similar story of contraction, though moderated by price increases:

While the value of exports declined by 13%, volumes dropped by nearly a third — meaning that rising unit values partially masked the severity of the volume contraction. Exports peaked in value around 2019 at approximately €1,907 M and in volume around 2016 at approximately 206,328 t, both before declining steadily.

Import volumes have been more resilient, though they too have declined

EU imports followed a different trajectory:

Import value actually rose slightly over the period (+2.8%), while volumes fell moderately (−6.8%). Notably, import unit values are roughly double those of exports (€24,883/t versus €11,291/t in 2025), which is largely explained by the composition effect: the high-value "other ink" sub-segment (321590) accounts for a disproportionate share of imports.

Import value peaked at approximately €2,635 M in 2020 — an anomaly likely linked to pandemic-era supply chain disruptions and price surges — before falling back to €1,891 M by 2025.

The trade balance has swung from near-equilibrium to a persistent deficit

The combined effect of declining exports and resilient imports has been a sharp deterioration of the trade balance:

In 2015, the EU was virtually self-sufficient in ink products (a deficit of just €11 M). By 2020, the deficit had ballooned to nearly €944 M — the decade's worst figure. Although it has since narrowed to €300 M, this still represents a fundamental shift. The net import reliance rose from 7.6% in 2015 to 12.8% in 2025 (+69%), confirming a structural increase in the EU's dependence on external ink suppliers.

The sector has become more trade-intensive and export-oriented

Despite the overall contraction, trade intensity (the ratio of trade to the total market) nearly doubled from 43.0% to 80.6%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) more than doubled from 24.4% to 65.1%. This paradox — declining production alongside rising export intensity — suggests that EU producers, facing shrinking domestic demand, have increasingly turned to external markets to maintain utilisation of their capacity.

2. Geographic Reorientation: Brexit, Sanctions, and the Rise of Asian Suppliers

The United Kingdom has lost its position as the EU's dominant trade partner

The single most consequential geographic shift has been the collapse of EU–UK ink trade. The UK was the EU's largest partner on both sides of the ledger in 2015:

The timing and scale of this decline are consistent with the disruption caused by Brexit, which introduced customs formalities, regulatory divergence, and friction at the border from January 2021 onward. The UK's share of EU ink trade has fallen dramatically on both the import and export sides, fundamentally reshaping the partner landscape.

EU exports to Russia have virtually collapsed following the 2022 sanctions

The EU–Russia ink trade experienced the most extreme disruption of any bilateral relationship in the data. EU exports to Russia fell from €127 M in 2015 to just €11 M in 2025, a decline of 91.5%. The sharpest drop occurred between 2021 and 2023, coinciding with the EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This is also the most volatile export relationship in the dataset, with a coefficient of variation of 0.68 — far above any other partner.

China and India have emerged as fast-growing suppliers

While traditional partners have declined, China and India have substantially increased their presence in the EU import market:

China's import value nearly tripled over the decade, while India's more than doubled. These gains reflect the broader trend of Asian industrialisation in the chemical and ink sectors, and likely also reflect some re-routing of trade flows previously captured by intermediaries such as the UK.

The United States has become the EU's most valuable single-country export market

On the export side, the United States has grown in importance:

With the UK and Russia in decline, the US has become the EU's single most valuable extra-EU export market for ink products. Türkiye has also been a stable and moderately growing destination (€108 M → €115 M, +6.4%).

Trade concentration has fallen, reflecting a more diversified partner structure

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for both imports and exports has declined significantly:

The import HHI fell from a level indicating moderate concentration to one indicating a well-diversified market. This reflects the decline of the UK as a dominant supplier and the emergence of multiple alternative sources. Export concentration has also fallen, consistent with the loss of the concentrated Russian market and a broadening of EU exports across more destinations.

Within the EU, Germany remains the largest player but is losing ground; the Netherlands and Spain are gaining

Looking at intra-EU reporting patterns, Germany was by far the largest EU Member State in both imports and exports in 2015, but its share has declined:

The specialisation data confirms that the Netherlands (RSCA = 0.40) and Germany (RSCA = 0.19) are the most specialised large exporters, while several smaller or peripheral Member States (Ireland, Malta, Finland, Estonia, Romania) show very low specialisation in this product. The rise of the Netherlands, Belgium, and Spain as exporters suggests a geographic re-configuration of EU ink production and trade intermediation.

3. Sub-Segment Divergence, Persistent Price Increases, and Supply-Side Volatility

The "other inks" sub-segment (321590) dominates import value and is the only growing import category by volume

Examining the sub-segment breakdown, the three sub-classes of CN 3215 have followed very different trajectories:

EU imports by sub-segment (2015 vs 2025):

The 321590 sub-segment accounts for 65% of all import value in 2025 (€1,237 M out of €1,891 M) and is the only category to have grown in both value (+11.9%) and volume (+8.8%). Its very high unit value (€43,890/t in 2025, compared to €14,604/t for coloured printing ink and €10,684/t for black printing ink) suggests it includes specialty and high-technology ink products for which the EU is structurally dependent on external suppliers. The import value for this segment peaked at €1,919 M in 2020 before declining, likely reflecting post-pandemic normalisation.

Coloured printing ink (321519) remains the dominant export segment but is declining sharply

On the export side, coloured printing ink (321519) remains the largest sub-segment:

EU exports by sub-segment (2015 vs 2025):

Coloured printing ink exports have fallen by 20.7% in value and 37.3% in volume — the steepest decline of any sub-segment. Black printing ink exports have also contracted significantly (−37.2% in value, −41.2% in volume). By contrast, the "other inks" category has grown in volume (+27.9%) even as its value has dipped slightly (−5.5%), suggesting price compression in this segment. Together, these patterns are consistent with the secular decline of traditional print media and the growing importance of specialty and industrial inks.

Unit values have risen across nearly all sub-segments and flows

A pervasive trend across the data is the increase in unit values. Aggregate export unit values rose 26.6% (from €8,915/t to €11,291/t) and import unit values rose 10.4% (from €22,549/t to €24,883/t). At the sub-segment level:

• Export unit values for coloured printing ink (321519) rose from €5,696/t to €7,207/t (+26.5%).
• Export unit values for black printing ink (321511) rose from €5,091/t to €7,713/t (+51.5%).
• Import unit values for other inks (321590) fluctuated between €23,912/t (2017) and €61,453/t (2020), ending at €43,890/t in 2025.

These increases likely reflect a mix of input cost inflation (raw materials, energy), a shift toward higher-value specialty products, and possible currency effects. The particularly wide swings in the 321590 import price suggest this segment is sensitive to compositional shifts (i.e., changes in the mix of specialty products being imported) rather than uniform price increases.

The Russia export channel exhibited the most extreme shock in the dataset

The volatility analysis identifies several notable shock events. The most significant is the EU–Russia export price shock centred on 2023:

The Russia shock is by far the largest in the dataset, with a price abnormality of 63.5 standard deviations and a 337.6% unit-value shift. This is almost certainly an artefact of the sanctions regime: as volumes collapsed, the small remaining trade may have shifted to higher-value or lower-volume transactions, dramatically inflating the unit value. The Russia export channel also had the highest coefficient of variation (0.68) of any partner, reflecting the extreme instability introduced by geopolitical events.

Import-side volatility is highest among emerging Asian suppliers

On the import side, the highest coefficients of variation are observed among newer or smaller suppliers:

The high volatility of imports from Indonesia, Malaysia, and India suggests these are less mature or less stable trade relationships, possibly subject to compositional shifts or sporadic large orders. The UK's high volatility (0.34) is a post-Brexit artefact — the sharp, one-off decline in trade volumes naturally inflates the coefficient of variation.

Conclusion

The EU ink market (CN 3215) has undergone a profound structural transformation over 2015–2025. Domestic production has contracted by over 40% in volume, export volumes have fallen by nearly a third, and the trade balance has swung from near-equilibrium to a persistent €300 M deficit. Simultaneously, the sector has become far more trade-intensive and export-oriented, with EU producers increasingly reliant on external markets as domestic demand weakens.

Geographically, the landscape has been redrawn by two major disruptions — Brexit and Russia sanctions — which together removed or severely diminished the EU's two largest extra-EU trade relationships. Asian suppliers, particularly China and India, have stepped into the breach on the import side, while the United States has emerged as the EU's most important export market. Trade concentration has fallen sharply, indicating a more diversified but also more complex trading environment.

Within the product mix, the "other inks" category (321590) has proven the most resilient, dominating import value and growing in both directions — a signal that the future of the EU ink industry lies increasingly in specialty and industrial applications rather than traditional printing inks. Rising unit values across the board, combined with persistent supply-side volatility from newer trading partners, suggest that the EU ink trade is navigating a period of both structural decline in legacy segments and gradual repositioning toward higher-value, more globally integrated market dynamics.