Market evolution: Ceramic pigments and glazes (CN 3207) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in products classified under Combined Nomenclature code 3207, which covers prepared pigments, opacifiers, vitrifiable enamels, glazes, engobes, liquid lustres, glass frit, and similar preparations used in the ceramic, enamelling, and glass industries. Over the decade to 2025, the EU remained a strong net exporter in this sector, maintaining a trade surplus of approximately €768 million. However, beneath the surface of apparent stability in aggregate export value (a modest –2.2% decline from €1.02 billion to €1.00 billion), the market underwent profound structural changes: volumes contracted sharply, prices surged, major geopolitical events reconfigured trade flows, and the internal product mix shifted decisively. This report identifies and explains three principal dynamics that shaped the market over this period.

1. From Volume to Value: Price-Driven Resilience in a Shrinking Market

The most striking macroeconomic feature of the EU's CN 3207 trade between 2015 and 2025 is the divergence between quantity and value trends. On the export side, the EU lost more than a quarter of its shipped volume while barely denting its revenue; on the import side, surging volumes were absorbed at declining unit prices. Together, these trends point to a European industry that is producing and shipping less but capturing significantly more value per unit — a hallmark of upstream specialisation.

1.1. Export volumes fell 28% while value held nearly flat

EU exports in CN 3207 declined from 770,067 tonnes in 2015 to 553,375 tonnes in 2025, a contraction of 28.1%. Yet export value fell only 2.2%, from €1,024 million to €1,002 million. The mechanism is straightforward: unit export values rose 36.2%, from €1,330/tonne to €1,810/tonne over the same period. This price increase absorbed nearly all of the volume loss, suggesting that EU producers have moved toward higher-value, more specialised product mixes or have been able to pass through higher input costs.

1.2. Import volumes surged 73% as unit prices fell by a third

On the import side, the dynamics were inverted. The EU's imports grew from 40,655 tonnes in 2015 to 70,510 tonnes in 2025 (+73.4%), while value rose only 14.2% (from €205 million to €234 million). Unit import prices dropped 34.2%, from €5,047/tonne to €3,320/tonne. This combination of rising volumes and falling prices suggests that the EU increasingly sources lower-cost, commoditised preparations from abroad — most likely glass frit (CN 320740), which dominates import volumes.

1.3. EU production shifted from quantity to value

Domestic production data corroborates this structural shift. EU production volumes declined 28.9%, from 2.35 billion kg in 2015 to 1.68 billion kg in 2025, yet production value rose 26.8%, from €2.00 billion to €2.54 billion. The implied unit production value thus increased substantially — consistent with an industry producing fewer tonnes of higher-margin products. This pattern aligns with the broader European manufacturing trend of moving up the value chain in response to global competition on commodity-grade goods.

2. Geopolitical Reconfiguration: Sanctions, Brexit, and New Corridors

The period 2015–2025 was marked by major geopolitical disruptions that left deep imprints on the EU's CN 3207 trade geography. Three events stand out: the progressive isolation of Russia following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the United Kingdom's departure from the EU single market, and the rise of North African and Turkish markets as both customers and competitors.

2.1. The collapse of trade with Russia

The most dramatic single shift was the disappearance of exports to the Russian Federation. In 2015, Russia was the EU's fourth-largest extra-EU export destination for CN 3207, absorbing €70 million in value. By 2025, this had collapsed to just €3,089 — effectively zero. This was not a gradual decline: shock detection identifies a massive price anomaly in residual Russia-bound exports in 2023, with unit values surging over 1,000% year-on-year — consistent with the near-total cessation of regular trade and the possible clearance of residual or diverted shipments at extraordinary prices. The loss of this market removed a significant volume sink and likely contributed to the overall decline in EU export tonnage.

2.2. Brexit reshaped the UK trade corridor

EU-United Kingdom trade in CN 3207 was heavily disrupted by Brexit. The UK was the second-largest source of EU imports in 2015 (€46 million), but by 2025 this had fallen 77.5% to just €10 million. The HHI import concentration index for value dropped from 1,765 to 1,570 (–11.1%), partly because the UK's share diminished. The decline likely reflects both new customs frictions and the reorientation of supply chains away from the UK post-2020.

2.3. North Africa and Türkiye emerged as growth poles

Partially offsetting these losses, Algeria became the EU's top export destination for CN 3207, with export values surging 121.0% from €48 million to €106 million. Morocco also grew (+26.4% to €50 million). Türkiye simultaneously became a larger export market for the EU (+41.0% to €107 million) while also more than tripling its own exports to the EU (+179.4% to €32 million). This bidirectional growth reflects the expanding ceramic and glass manufacturing capacity in these regions, which both consumes EU-origin pigments and glazes and competes with EU producers on price-sensitive product lines. The volatility of the Türkiye and Algeria corridors was comparatively low (coefficient of variation of 0.15 and 0.21 respectively), suggesting sustained structural demand rather than erratic flows.

3. Internal Restructuring: The Disappearance of Liquid Lustres and the Rise of Enamels

Behind the aggregate trade figures, the four product sub-segments within CN 3207 followed sharply divergent trajectories. The most dramatic was the near-total collapse of the liquid lustres segment (CN 320730), while vitrifiable enamels and glazes (CN 320720) emerged as the dominant growth driver in value terms.

3.1. Liquid lustres (CN 320730): a segment in freefall

EU exports of liquid lustres collapsed from 18,929 tonnes (€236 million) in 2015 to just 728 tonnes (€96 million) in 2025. This 96% decline in volume was accompanied by a 60% drop in value, and the residual trade carried extraordinarily high unit values — rising from €12,462/tonne in 2015 to €132,112/tonne in 2025. Import volumes of this segment also fell 73% (from 758 to 205 tonnes), though import values were sustained by a 176% price increase. The most plausible explanation is a combination of regulatory pressure (liquid lustres often contain heavy metals and volatile organic compounds), process substitution, and a shift toward solid-state or water-based alternatives. What remains is high-value, low-volume niche trade in specialty formulations.

3.2. Vitrifiable enamels and glazes (CN 320720): the new value engine

In stark contrast, vitrifiable enamels and glazes became the EU's fastest-growing export segment by value. Export revenues rose from €174 million to €297 million (+70.3%) over the period, while volumes increased more modestly from 255,433 to 288,002 tonnes (+12.7%). Unit export values climbed 51%, from €683/tonne to €1,032/tonne. On the import side, this segment saw an extraordinary price escalation: import unit values surged from €2,560/tonne to €38,448/tonne, even as volumes fell from 3,486 to 1,427 tonnes. This suggests that the EU increasingly imports only highly specialised, high-value enamel formulations while exporting at scale in more standard grades — a pattern consistent with the EU's comparative advantage as shown in the specialisation data, where Spain (RCA 5.96) and Italy (RCA 1.62) are the most specialised producers.

3.3. Glass frit (CN 320740): volume decline offset by price gains

Glass frit, the largest segment by weight, saw EU export volumes nearly halve from 424,555 to 212,514 tonnes (–50.0%), while export value declined only 12.2% (from €299 million to €263 million). Unit export values nearly doubled, from €704 to €1,236/tonne. Simultaneously, EU imports of glass frit more than doubled in volume (from 30,687 to 64,805 tonnes), though at declining unit prices (from €1,239 to €938/tonne). This is the clearest illustration of the commodity-competition dynamic: the EU is losing volume share in glass frit to lower-cost imports (likely from China and Türkiye) while retaining value through quality differentiation and rising global prices.

3.4. Prepared pigments (CN 320710): stable but squeezed

The prepared pigments segment was the most stable in value terms — export revenues moved from €314 million to €346 million (+9.9%) despite a volume decline from 71,150 to 52,130 tonnes (–26.7%). Unit export prices rose 50%, from €4,418 to €6,628/tonne. Import prices for pigments were broadly stable (around €8,400–8,800/tonne), suggesting that the EU sources specialised pigment grades at premium prices while competing in mid-tier export markets on the basis of formulation expertise.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's trade in CN 3207 products tells a story of resilience through restructuring. The headline figures — a stable export surplus of roughly €770 million and a modest 2.2% decline in export value — mask dramatic shifts underneath. Export volumes fell 28%, but the EU compensated by moving decisively up the value chain: unit export prices rose 36% and production values increased 27% even as production tonnage declined 29%.

Geopolitically, the sector absorbed two major shocks: the loss of the Russian market (from €70 million to essentially zero) and the disruption of UK trade flows post-Brexit (–77.5% in imports). These losses were partly offset by strong growth in North African and Turkish markets, though these regions are simultaneously becoming more competitive.

At the product level, the near-disappearance of the liquid lustres segment (CN 320730) and the rise of vitrifiable enamels and glazes (CN 320720) as the leading value driver signal a fundamental reorientation of the sector. The EU's export propensity rose from 28.9% to 40.6%, confirming that the industry has become more outward-looking even as its physical footprint has shrunk. The net import reliance ratio deepened from –29.8% to –47.8%, reinforcing the EU's position as a net exporter — but one increasingly dependent on maintaining a technological and quality edge rather than competing on volume or price.