Market evolution: Ceramic pigments (CN 320710) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in Prepared pigments, prepared opacifiers, prepared colours and similar preparations of a kind used in the ceramic, enamelling or glass industry (CN 320710) over the period 2015–2025. The EU is a structural net exporter of these products: in 2025, export value stood at €345.6 million against imports of only €35.7 million, yielding a trade surplus of €309.9 million. Over the decade, the overall picture is one of value stability masking a deep structural transformation — a sharp contraction in traded volumes, a steep rise in unit prices, a reorientation of both export destinations and import sources, and a growing concentration of production within the EU around a small number of specialised Member States.

1. Rising Prices, Falling Volumes: The EU Trades Less but Earns More

1.1. Export value held up despite a 27 % collapse in volume

Over the 2015–2025 period, EU exports of CN 320710 rose by 9.9 % in value (from €314.4 million to €345.6 million) but fell by 26.7 % in volume (from 71,150 t to 52,130 t). The reconciliation lies in a 50.0 % increase in average export unit prices — from €4,418/t in 2015 to €6,628/t in 2025. Export value peaked at €500.9 million in a mid-period year before retreating, while volumes declined almost continuously after an initial high of 84,304 t.

1.2. Imports contracted even more sharply

Imports fell by 26.0 % in value (from €48.3 million to €35.7 million) and by 28.9 % in volume (from 5,724 t to 4,072 t), while import unit prices rose only modestly (+4.0 %, from €8,433/t to €8,772/t). Notably, import prices have consistently been roughly 30–50 % higher than export prices throughout the period, suggesting that the EU imports a narrower, more specialised or higher-grade product mix than it exports.

1.3. The trade surplus widened as the EU consolidated its net-exporter position

The trade balance grew from €266.1 million to €309.9 million (+16.5 %). The net import reliance ratio deepened from −24.2 % to −63.5 %, confirming that the EU's position as a net exporter of ceramic pigments intensified substantially. This deepening reflects both the decline in imports and the growing importance of export revenues relative to domestic consumption.

2. A Dramatic Geographic Reorientation of Trade Flows

2.1. Export destinations shifted towards emerging markets

The most striking feature of the period is the reorientation of EU export destinations. Among the top seven partners, the fastest-growing markets were India (+255.6 %, from €16.8 million to €59.8 million), Brazil (+141.1 %, from €13.3 million to €32.0 million), and the United States (+72.7 %, from €20.0 million to €34.5 million). India's rise is particularly remarkable: it became the EU's single largest export market for CN 320710 in 2025, overtaking both Türkiye and China.

By contrast, exports to China and Russia declined, likely reflecting a combination of increased local production capacity in those countries and, in the case of Russia, geopolitical disruption following 2022. Together, the three largest emerging-market destinations (India, Brazil, Mexico) grew from €38.9 million to €105.3 million — a tripling that more than compensated for losses elsewhere.

2.2. Import sources consolidated around China while traditional partners collapsed

On the import side, China remained the dominant supplier, growing modestly from €17.2 million to €19.2 million (+11.8 %) and accounting for over half of extra-EU imports by value in 2025. All other major sources saw dramatic declines:

The United Kingdom's collapse (−80.0 %) is largely attributable to Brexit: UK-EU flows that previously counted as intra-EU trade were reclassified to extra-EU after 2020, but the steep decline since suggests the UK has also reduced sourcing from the EU, possibly redirecting supply chains domestically or towards Asia. The declines for Switzerland and South Korea point to broader supply-chain rationalisation.

2.3. Within the EU, Spain emerged as the unrivalled export champion

The Member-State breakdown reveals a pronounced consolidation around Spain. In 2025, Spain accounted for €222.2 million of extra-EU exports — roughly 64 % of the total — up from €155.8 million in 2015 (+42.7 %). No other Member State comes close: the Netherlands held steady at €61.8 million, while Italy (−39.6 %) and Germany (−63.2 %) both contracted significantly.

Spain's revealed comparative advantage (RCA) stands at 6.91 — by far the highest in the EU — with a production share of 40.0 % of EU output and a normalised RCA (RSCA) of +0.75, indicating strong, persistent specialisation. Italy and the Netherlands also show positive RSCA values, but all other large Member States are net importers or unspecialised in this product category.

3. Structural Shifts in Production, Concentration, and Market Vulnerability

3.1. EU production shifted towards higher-value output

EU domestic production followed the same pattern observed in trade: volumes declined by 41.3 % (from 304,000 t to 178,519 t), while production value rose by 38.4 % (from €640 million to €885.7 million). This implies a near-doubling of the average production unit value — from roughly €2.1/kg to roughly €5.0/kg — indicating that the EU industry has progressively shifted away from bulk, commodity-grade pigments towards higher-value, specialised preparations. This is consistent with the EU's comparative advantage in technology-intensive ceramic and glass applications and with the broader industrial strategy of moving up the value chain.

3.2. Market concentration intensified on both the import and export sides

Import concentration (HHI by value) rose from 2,479 to 3,520 (+42.0 %), driven by China's growing dominance as the sole large extra-EU supplier. By volume, concentration more than doubled (from 2,441 to 5,383, +120.5 %). Export concentration also increased, though from a lower base: the HHI by value rose from 443 to 743 (+67.8 %), and by volume from 432 to 793 (+83.6 %). These increases reflect the growing weight of a few large partners — India, Brazil, and the United States on the export side; China on the import side — and the relative decline of previously diversified bilateral relationships.

The rising import concentration is a potential vulnerability factor: with China accounting for over half of extra-EU imports, any disruption to that bilateral relationship — whether from trade measures, logistics issues, or geopolitical escalation — could create supply-side pressure on EU ceramics and glass manufacturers that depend on imported specialty pigments.

3.3. Volatility and isolated shock events underscore supply-chain fragility

The volatility analysis reveals that several bilateral trade relationships were highly unstable over the period. On the import side, Algeria (CV = 1.85), Israel (0.99), India (0.93), and South Korea (0.87) exhibited the highest coefficient-of-variation values, indicating sharp year-to-year swings. On the export side, China (0.52), the United Arab Emirates (0.48), and Morocco (0.34) were the most volatile among the top partners.

The shock detection identified three notable price shocks in EU exports:

Morocco and the UAE both experienced extreme export price spikes in 2018, likely reflecting either a compositional shift towards higher-value product mixes in those markets or one-off supply disruptions that temporarily elevated prices. Brazil's 2022 shock coincides with the broader inflationary and logistics disruptions of that year. While none of these shocks individually represent a large share of total EU exports (2–8 %), they illustrate the kind of episodic volatility that traders in this sector must manage.

3.4. The EU's export orientation deepened, increasing dependence on external demand

The trade intensity index rose from 29.8 % to 45.1 %, while export propensity increased from 25.6 % to 42.9 %. Both metrics peaked at levels close to 70 % in mid-period years before settling. The higher salience score of export propensity (74.7 vs. 56.0 for trade intensity) underscores that the EU's ceramic pigment industry is increasingly oriented towards external markets. While this reflects competitive strength, it also means that the sector is more exposed than before to downturns in partner-country construction, ceramics, and glass demand — particularly in fast-growing but potentially volatile markets like India and Brazil.

Conclusion

The EU ceramic pigments market (CN 320710) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. The headline numbers — stable export values, a widening trade surplus — conceal a story of deep structural change. Traded volumes have fallen sharply on both sides, with the EU progressively exiting bulk production in favour of higher-value, specialised preparations. This value-chain upgrading is most evident in Spain, which has consolidated its position as the EU's dominant exporter and producer, supported by a strong revealed comparative advantage.

Geographically, the map of EU trade has been redrawn. India, Brazil, and the United States have emerged as the principal growth markets for exports, while China has tightened its grip as the leading extra-EU import source. Traditional bilateral flows — with the United Kingdom, Switzerland, and South Korea — have collapsed, reflecting post-Brexit trade restructuring and broader supply-chain rationalisation. The concentration of both imports and exports has increased, raising efficiency but also heightening vulnerability to bilateral disruptions.

Looking ahead, the EU's growing reliance on exports (now over 40 % of production value) and on a small number of import partners creates both opportunity and risk. Continued specialisation in high-value ceramic and glass pigments should sustain the sector's competitiveness, but policymakers and firms alike should monitor the increasing concentration of import supply around China and the exposure of export revenues to cyclical demand in emerging economies.