Market evolution: Women's synthetic briefs (CN 610822) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in women's or girls' briefs and panties of man-made fibres (customs code 610822) over the period 2015–2025. The product sits within the broader category of knitted or crocheted women's apparel (HS 6108) and is one of the highest-volume garment categories traded within and outside the EU. Over the decade under review, the EU's trade profile for this product was shaped by three overarching dynamics: the progressive geographic diversification of sourcing away from China toward South and Southeast Asia, a severe contraction in domestic production accompanied by a sharp rise in import dependence, and a persistent price divergence between cheapening imports and resilient export unit values. Together, these shifts paint a picture of an industry that has substantially offshored its manufacturing base while retaining niche export capabilities.

1. Geographic Diversification of Imports: From Chinese Dominance to a Multi-Polar Supplier Base

1.1 Imports grew in volume while the trade deficit widened

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 610822 rose from €576.5 million to €636.5 million (+10.4% in value). In physical terms, the increase was even more pronounced: imported tonnage grew from 19,420 tonnes to 22,705 tonnes (+16.9%), and the supplementary unit count surged from 368.4 million pieces to 473.5 million pieces (+28.5%). Over the same period, EU exports grew more modestly — from €103.7 million to €119.9 million (+15.6%). The trade balance thus remained firmly in deficit, widening from €472.8 million to €516.6 million.

The faster growth in piece-count than in tonnage points to a sustained decline in the average weight per unit — consistent with lighter, thinner synthetic fabrics gaining ground in the product mix.

1.2 China's share eroded as Bangladesh, Viet Nam, and Myanmar surged

China remained the EU's single largest supplier throughout the period, but its dominance declined substantially. Chinese exports to the EU fell from €311.7 million (2015) to €266.8 million (2025), a contraction of 14.4%. Meanwhile, three Asian suppliers grew dramatically:

Bangladesh's share roughly tripled over the decade, reaching nearly the level of China's in the final years. Viet Nam's value almost tripled as well, while Myanmar — starting from a very low base — grew by a factor of six. These shifts reflect the broader "China plus one" sourcing strategy adopted by major European apparel brands, driven by labour-cost differentials, tariff considerations (e.g. EU GSP/EBA preferences for LDCs), and supply-chain risk diversification after COVID-19.

At the same time, two suppliers that initially held meaningful shares lost ground:

The UK's decline largely reflects post-Brexit trade reclassification and friction; flows that were intra-EU before 2021 became extra-EU trade. Indonesia's retreat may indicate competitive pressure from lower-cost South Asian producers.

1.3 Import concentration fell as supplier base diversified

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value dropped from 3,121 in 2015 to 2,327 in 2025 (−25.4%). While still above the conventional 2,500 threshold for moderate concentration, the trajectory is unambiguously toward greater diversification. The EU's import supply for women's synthetic briefs has become markedly less dependent on any single country — a structural change that reduces vulnerability to country-specific disruptions but complicates supply-chain management.

2. Collapse of EU Production and the Surge in Import Dependence

2.1 Domestic production contracted by two-thirds

Perhaps the most striking finding in the data is the collapse of EU production. Output fell from 527.2 million pieces in 2015 to just 180.0 million pieces in 2025 — a decline of 65.9%. Production value dropped even more steeply, from €805.8 million to €262.3 million (−67.5%).

This collapse far outpaces the growth in exports, indicating that the decline is not a rebalancing toward export markets but a genuine deindustrialisation of the segment within the EU. Contributing factors likely include continued offshoring by European brands, intense price competition from Asian producers, and rising energy and labour costs in parts of the EU.

2.2 Net import reliance more than doubled

As a direct consequence of declining production and rising imports, the EU's net import reliance soared from 37.0% in 2015 to 79.5% in 2025 — an increase of 114.5%. In parallel, trade intensity (imports + exports as a share of apparent consumption) rose from 59.6% to 98.3%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) jumped from 25.6% to 90.2%.

The export propensity figure — reaching 90.2% — is particularly telling. It suggests that the remaining EU production base is now almost entirely oriented toward export markets (primarily neighbouring non-EU European countries), while the EU's own domestic consumption is overwhelmingly supplied by imports. The EU has, in effect, transitioned from a largely self-sufficient market to one that is structurally dependent on extra-EU sourcing.

2.3 A few EU member states drive what remains of production

Specialisation data for 2025 reveals that export competitiveness in this product is concentrated in a handful of EU countries. Croatia (RSCA 0.518), Slovakia (0.388), Austria (0.251), Italy (0.240), and Poland (0.169) are the most specialised producers/exporters of CN 610822 within the EU. Italy and Poland stand out as the largest absolute exporters among the specialised producers: Italy's exports grew from €18.1 million to €29.5 million (+63.1%), and Poland's from €1.2 million to €6.7 million (+444.2%) over the period. Conversely, the least specialised member states — Cyprus, Finland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, and Greece — contribute virtually nothing to the EU's export footprint in this category.

3. Price Divergence, Shocks, and the Reconfiguration of EU Trade Flows

3.1 Import unit prices fell while export prices held steady

A notable trend over the decade is the divergence between import and export unit prices. Import prices per tonne declined from €29,685 to €28,028 (−5.6%), and the supplementary unit price fell from €1.56 per piece to €1.33 (−14.8%). By contrast, the EU's export price per tonne edged up from €54,140 to €55,084 (+1.7%), and the export price per piece rose from €2.30 to €2.47 (+7.5%).

The widening price gap — exports now command roughly twice the unit value of imports in per-tonne terms — suggests that the EU's remaining export capacity is concentrated in higher-end, branded, or technically differentiated products, while mass-market items are almost entirely sourced from low-cost Asian suppliers. This is consistent with the broader "fast fashion vs. premium" bifurcation observed across European apparel markets.

3.2 COVID-19 and geopolitical shocks left distinct traces

The volatility analysis identifies several notable disruptions. Among supply shocks, three stand out:

The Russian Federation shock in 2022 is the most commercially significant: with a 26.4% share of EU export value in that year, the sharp increase in export unit prices to Russia (+44.8%) likely reflects the impact of sanctions and supply-chain disruption following the invasion of Ukraine — fewer units shipped at higher effective prices, or a compositional shift toward premium products in the remaining trade. Norway's 2017 spike, while dramatic in percentage terms, affects a much smaller trade flow (6% value share). The Ceuta event (a Spanish exclave in North Africa) is statistically notable but economically marginal (0.2% share).

In terms of bilateral volatility, the United Kingdom stands out on the import side with an exceptionally high coefficient of variation (CV = 1.125), reflecting the Brexit-related reclassification and trade disruption. On the export side, Türkiye (CV = 0.706) and Ceuta (CV = 0.991) show the most erratic patterns.

3.3 Intra-EU trade patterns shifted as Poland emerged and France receded

Among EU member-state importers, the most dramatic shift occurred in Poland, which saw its extra-EU imports surge from €6.3 million to €40.9 million (+546.2%). The Netherlands (+25.4%), Spain (+18.3%), and Sweden (+19.5%) also increased their imports, while France (−18.0%) and Germany (−3.7%) — historically the two largest importers — saw declines in absolute terms. On the export side, Italy (+63.1%), Germany (+43.6%), the Netherlands (+64.6%), Spain (+61.3%), and Poland (+444.2%) all expanded, while France's exports contracted by 20.9%. The convergence of import and export growth in countries like Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Poland suggests these member states increasingly function as hubs — importing semi-finished or lower-value garments and re-exporting finished or branded products.

Conclusion

The EU market for women's synthetic briefs (CN 610822) underwent a profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. Domestic production collapsed by roughly two-thirds, leaving the EU with a net import reliance of nearly 80%. The sourcing landscape diversified significantly: China, while still the largest supplier, saw its share decline, while Bangladesh, Viet Nam, Sri Lanka, and Myanmar collectively absorbed much of the growth. Import prices fell — reflecting the relentless cost pressure from Asian manufacturing — while EU export prices held firm or increased, indicating a niche specialisation in higher-value segments. The trade deficit widened to over half a billion euros. Key disruptions, notably Brexit and the post-2022 sanctions on Russia, left visible imprints on bilateral flows. Looking ahead, the EU's strategic vulnerability in this segment is clear: it is overwhelmingly dependent on imports for mass-market consumption, with only a thin layer of specialised production — concentrated in Italy, Poland, Slovakia, Austria, and Croatia — sustaining any export capability at all.