Market evolution: Cotton panties (CN 610821) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 610821 — women's or girls' briefs and panties of cotton, knitted or crocheted — within the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The EU is a major consumer market for this product category, and the data reveals a decade of profound structural change: a sharp decline in domestic production, a dramatic deepening of import dependence, and a significant reconfiguration of sourcing geographies. While the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical events such as Brexit introduced notable short-term shocks, the overarching trends are driven by long-term shifts in global textile supply chains and EU industrial competitiveness. The analysis draws on trade data, partner-level flows, intra-EU reporting, production volumes, concentration metrics, and vulnerability indicators.

1. A market increasingly dependent on imports amid collapsing EU production

1.1 Domestic production has fallen by two-thirds over the decade

The most striking structural feature of this market is the collapse of EU-internal production. Production volumes fell from 527.2 million pieces at the start of the period to 180.0 million pieces by 2025, a decline of 65.9%. Production value contracted even more sharply, from €805.8 million to €262.3 million (−67.5%). This indicates that the EU has progressively exited the manufacturing of basic cotton panties, a labour-intensive product category where low-cost Asian producers hold a decisive cost advantage.

1.2 Import volumes and values have surged in response

As domestic production contracted, imports grew substantially to fill the gap:

Source: General trade overview

The piece count grew much faster than the tonnage (+41.8% vs. +18.9%), suggesting that the average unit weight has declined — likely reflecting a shift toward lighter, thinner fabrics or smaller packaging formats. Meanwhile, the unit price per piece edged down slightly, indicating that importers have benefited from competitive global supply.

1.3 Net import reliance has more than doubled

The net import reliance ratio surged from 37.0% in 2015 to 79.5% in 2025 — an increase of 114.5%. This means that roughly four-fifths of the cotton panties consumed in the EU now originate from outside the bloc. The trade deficit widened correspondingly, from −€388.0 million to −€533.7 million (−37.5% in absolute terms). The EU's trade intensity also rose from 59.6% to 98.3%, underscoring how heavily this product category now depends on cross-border flows.

2. Bangladesh's rise and the reshaping of supply geographies

2.1 Bangladesh has overtaken China as the EU's leading supplier

The most dramatic shift among sourcing countries has been the meteoric rise of Bangladesh. Its export value to the EU grew from €76.7 million in 2015 to €197.4 million in 2025 — an increase of 157.4% — making it the single largest supplier by value, slightly ahead of China.

Source: Top import partners

Bangladesh's rise reflects its well-established garment industry, preferential EU market access (Everything But Arms), and competitive labour costs. China, while still the second-largest supplier, saw its peak in around 2018 (€236.3 million) before declining — a pattern consistent with the broader "China plus one" diversification strategy adopted by global fashion brands.

2.2 The United Kingdom's import footprint collapsed after Brexit

UK-sourced imports of cotton panties fell from €15.5 million to just €3.2 million, a drop of 79.3%. This is the most volatile bilateral import relationship in the dataset, with a coefficient of variation of 1.68 — far exceeding all other partners. The collapse is largely attributable to Brexit: the UK's departure from the EU customs union introduced new rules of origin requirements, border frictions, and loss of preferential treatment, making UK-origin goods less competitive in the EU market.

2.3 Sri Lanka and Albania have emerged as fast-growing nearshore suppliers

Sri Lanka increased its exports to the EU by 54.8% (from €40.6M to €62.8M), while Albania more than doubled its shipments (+105.4%, from €13.4M to €27.4M). Albania's growth is particularly noteworthy given its geographic proximity to the EU and its role in the European textile supply chain. The EU–Albania Stabilisation and Association Agreement provides preferential trade terms, and Albanian producers have capitalised on nearshoring demand. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, benefits from a skilled workforce and established relationships with European lingerie brands.

2.4 Supply concentration has modestly declined

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 2,199 to 2,035 (−7.5%), indicating a slight broadening of the supplier base. However, by volume, concentration actually increased from 2,029 to 2,557 (+26.0%), reflecting the growing dominance of a few large-volume suppliers like Bangladesh. This divergence suggests that while more countries participate in trade, a smaller number of high-volume producers increasingly dominate the physical flow of goods.

3. Price shocks, volatility, and the evolving role of EU exporters

3.1 Import prices have been subject to notable supply shocks

The volatility and shock analysis identifies three significant price shock events:

Source: Supply shocks

The 2017 India shock stands out with an abnormality score of 53.5, suggesting an exceptionally unusual price movement — possibly linked to raw cotton price fluctuations or supply disruptions. The 2022 Bangladesh price shock is particularly significant given Bangladesh's 31% value share in EU imports: a +23.6% price increase in such a large supplier would have had meaningful downstream cost effects for EU retailers and consumers. The 2022 Russia export shock (price +51.6%) likely reflects the impact of sanctions and trade disruption following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

3.2 EU export unit values have risen sharply, signalling a move upmarket

While the EU's export volumes grew only modestly (from 46.4 million to 49.5 million pieces, +6.7%), export values surged from €70.7 million to €104.8 million (+48.2%). The unit price per exported piece rose from €1.52 to €2.12 (+38.9%). This is a striking contrast with the flat-to-declining import unit price (€0.80 → €0.78).

The interpretation is that EU-based producers have shifted toward higher-value, niche, or branded products — potentially organic cotton, luxury lingerie, or designs with higher margins — rather than competing on volume with Asian mass-market producers. This is consistent with the export propensity rising from 25.6% to 90.2% (+252.7%), a remarkable increase suggesting that an increasing share of the remaining EU production is oriented toward export markets rather than domestic consumption.

3.3 Italy and Poland have emerged as EU export leaders

Among EU member states, Italy and Poland stand out for their export dynamism:

Source: Top EU exporters

Italy's tripling of exports is consistent with its reputation for high-quality textiles and luxury fashion manufacturing. Poland's surge (+384.4%) reflects the country's growing role as a Central European manufacturing hub, with competitive labour costs and strong EU single-market connectivity. Notably, Poland's imports also grew dramatically (+424.8%), suggesting that Poland functions as both a consumer market and a re-export or logistics hub.

Specialisation analysis for 2025 confirms that Croatia (RSCA: 0.42), Poland (0.25), and France (0.24) display the strongest revealed comparative advantage in this product within the EU, while smaller member states like Luxembourg, Malta, and Cyprus show negligible specialisation.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for cotton panties (CN 610821) has undergone a fundamental transformation. Domestic production has collapsed by roughly two-thirds, replaced by a rapidly growing import base that now accounts for nearly 80% of consumption. The sourcing geography has shifted significantly: Bangladesh has emerged as the dominant supplier, overtaking a declining (though still large) Chinese export base, while nearshore partners like Albania and Sri Lanka have gained ground. Brexit caused a near-total withdrawal of UK-origin goods from the EU market.

EU exporters, meanwhile, have adapted by pivoting toward higher-value segments, with unit export prices rising nearly 39% while volumes remained largely stable. Italy and Poland have become the bloc's export champions, reflecting divergent but complementary competitive strategies — Italian design excellence and Polish cost-efficient manufacturing. The persistent price shocks detected in the data (notably from India in 2017 and Bangladesh in 2022) highlight the vulnerability of a supply chain that is concentrated among a small number of Asian producers. Overall, the EU's increasing reliance on external suppliers raises important questions about supply chain resilience, though the diversification of sourcing partners and the reorientation of remaining EU production toward premium exports suggest a market that is adapting — albeit at the cost of industrial sovereignty in a basic consumer goods category.