Market evolution: Cotton nightwear (CN 610831) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 610831 — women's or girls' nightdresses and pyjamas of cotton, knitted or crocheted — within the European Union's extra-EU trade flows over the period 2015–2025. The EU is overwhelmingly a net importer of this product category: by 2025, extra-EU imports stood at €471 million against just €45 million in exports, yielding a trade deficit of over €426 million. Across the decade, three defining dynamics emerge: a collapse in EU domestic production accompanied by surging import reliance; a pronounced reorientation of supply away from China and towards South and Southeast Asia, above all Bangladesh; and a series of geopolitical and pandemic-related shocks that reshaped both sourcing costs and export destinations. The following sections explore each of these themes in turn.

1. Hollowing Out: EU Production Collapse and Deepening Import Dependence

The most striking structural trend over 2015–2025 is the dramatic contraction of EU domestic production of cotton nightwear and the corresponding deepening of the bloc's reliance on extra-EU imports.

Domestic production fell by nearly two-thirds

EU production of cotton nightwear declined from approximately 26.9 million pieces (valued at €192 million) in 2015 to just 9.7 million pieces (valued at €80 million) in 2025 — a drop of 64% in volume and 58% in value. The minimum was reached at 8.3 million pieces, suggesting that output has only just stabilised at a level roughly one-third of its 2015 baseline. This collapse reflects the broader long-term shift of basic textile and apparel manufacturing out of the EU, driven by labour-cost differentials and the progressive offshoring of cut-make-trim operations.

Net import reliance climbed from 63% to 89%

As production contracted, net import reliance surged from 62.6% in 2015 to 88.8% in 2025 — a 41.7% increase. This means that by 2025, nearly nine out of every ten items of cotton nightwear consumed in the EU were sourced from outside the bloc.

Imports grew moderately in value, more strongly in piece count

In aggregate, EU imports of CN 610831 grew from €415 million to €471 million (+13.4% in value) and from 116.7 million to 145.1 million pieces (+24.4% in supplementary unit count) over the period. Notably, the average import price per piece declined from €3.56 to €3.24 (–8.9%), indicating that the EU was sourcing progressively cheaper goods — consistent with a shift towards lower-cost producing countries and a general deflationary pressure on garment prices.

The gap between the modest growth in import value (+13.4%) and the stronger growth in import piece count (+24.4%) underscores a market in which volumes are rising faster than spending — a pattern consistent with increasing penetration of low-price nightwear from developing-country suppliers.

2. From China to Bangladesh: The Reconfiguration of Supply Origins

Over the decade, the geography of EU cotton nightwear imports underwent a fundamental transformation, with Bangladesh displacing China as the dominant supplier and import concentration rising markedly.

Bangladesh became the EU's single largest supplier

Bangladesh's share of EU imports of CN 610831 grew dramatically: import values rose from €105 million in 2015 to €196 million in 2025 (+85.9%), peaking at €239 million along the way. By 2025, Bangladesh alone accounted for roughly 42% of all extra-EU imports by value — up from about 25% in 2015. This mirrors Bangladesh's broader ascent as a global hub for basic cotton apparel, supported by low labour costs, established garment infrastructure, and preferential market access under the EU's Everything But Arms (EBA) arrangement.

China's share contracted by more than half

In contrast, China saw its exports of this product to the EU fall from €92 million to €41 million (–55.3%). This decline reflects a combination of rising Chinese production costs, a deliberate Chinese industrial policy of moving up the value chain, and the effects of EU trade policy measures (including the withdrawal of GSP preferences for China). China went from the third-largest supplier to being eclipsed by both Bangladesh and India.

India held steady; Cambodia and others grew from smaller bases

India, the second-largest supplier, remained relatively stable, growing modestly from €118 million to €131 million (+10.7%). Cambodia more than doubled its shipments from €9.4 million to €16.2 million (+72.2%), while Pakistan stayed broadly flat at around €6–7 million. These shifts point to a wider "China plus one" strategy by EU importers, diversifying sourcing across South and Southeast Asia.

The United Kingdom's bilateral trade collapsed after Brexit

One of the sharpest bilateral disruptions occurred between the EU and the United Kingdom. UK imports of this product from the EU fell from €17.0 million in 2015 to just €2.2 million in 2025 (–86.8%), with a coefficient of variation of 1.12 — the highest volatility of any import partner. The UK's exit from the EU Single Market and Customs Union introduced customs formalities and rules-of-origin requirements that disrupted previously frictionless supply chains. On the export side, EU exports to the UK similarly fell from €9.6 million to €4.3 million (–55.7%).

Import concentration intensified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value rose from 2,028 to 2,656 (+31.0%). In the context of the product-level data, this increase in concentration means that the EU's import base became significantly less diversified: Bangladesh's rising dominance came partly at the expense of China and the UK, leaving the EU more exposed to supply disruptions originating in a single country.

3. Resilience, Shocks and Export Reorientation

While the EU's export footprint in cotton nightwear is small relative to imports, export dynamics reveal an interesting story of diversification and adaptation to geopolitical shocks. Meanwhile, the import side experienced notable price shocks that merit attention.

EU exports grew and diversified significantly

EU extra-EU exports of CN 610831 rose from €34 million to €45 million (+30.6% in value) and from 4.4 million to 7.2 million pieces (+63.3% in supplementary units). The export HHI fell sharply from 1,751 to 910 (–48.0%), indicating a substantial broadening of export destinations. The average export price per piece, however, fell from €7.78 to €6.23 (–20.0%), suggesting either a shift towards lower-value product segments or increased competitive pressure.

Eastern European producers emerged as specialised exporters

Specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that Central and Eastern European (CEE) member states — notably Bulgaria (RSCA: 0.52), Poland (RSCA: 0.50), Slovenia (0.34), Hungary (0.29), and Romania (0.21) — have the strongest revealed comparative advantage in this product. This is consistent with the well-documented role of CEE countries as nearshoring hubs for EU apparel brands, offering shorter lead times than Asian suppliers while retaining cost advantages relative to Western Europe.

Poland and Spain emerged as major growth stories

Within the EU, Poland experienced extraordinary growth as both an importer and an exporter. Polish extra-EU imports surged from €10 million to €61 million (+522%), while Polish exports rose from €1.1 million to €9.1 million (+742%). Spain similarly grew its imports from €38 million to €58 million (+50%) and its exports from €2.5 million to €6.7 million (+167%). These two countries appear to have become increasingly central nodes in the EU's cotton nightwear trade — Poland as a nearshoring production and re-export platform, and Spain as a growing consumer market.

Geopolitical shocks affected specific bilateral flows

The volatility and shock analysis identified several notable events:

• Bangladesh import price shock (2022): An abnormality score of 13.2 and a 35.7% price shift occurred around 2022, likely reflecting the global cotton price spike and post-COVID supply-chain disruptions. Given Bangladesh's 46.5% share of import value, this shock had outsized systemic impact.
• Russia export price shock (2022): With an abnormality score of 11.5 and a 39.7% price shift, this coincides with the imposition of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. EU exports to Russia fell from €3.5 million to €2.1 million (–39.7%).
• Ukraine and Serbia as emerging export markets: EU exports to Ukraine surged by 855% (from €0.5M to €4.8M) and to Serbia by 1,265% (from €0.25M to €3.4M). These remarkable growth rates reflect both trade diversion effects and the progressive EU integration of Western Balkan and Eastern Partnership economies.

The EU's trade deficit continued to widen

Despite the growth in exports, the trade balance deteriorated from –€381 million to –€426 million (–11.8%), having reached a trough of –€534 million at one point. The structural deficit is a direct consequence of the production hollowing described in Section 1 and is unlikely to reverse without a significant shift in EU manufacturing competitiveness or consumer preferences.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU market for cotton women's nightwear has been reshaped by three converging forces. First, a sustained decline in domestic production — down 64% in piece count — has pushed net import reliance to nearly 89%, raising questions about supply-chain vulnerability. Second, the sourcing landscape has been fundamentally reoriented: Bangladesh now supplies over 40% of imports by value, while China's share has halved. This concentration, captured by a rising HHI, creates a strategic dependency that contrasts with the EU's stated goal of supply-chain diversification. Third, while EU exports have grown and diversified — with CEE member states, particularly Poland, emerging as specialised producers — this has not been sufficient to offset the widening trade deficit. Geopolitical events, notably Brexit and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have further reconfigured bilateral flows, while 2022 price shocks highlighted the sensitivity of the sector to global commodity and logistics disruptions. Looking ahead, the sustainability of low-cost Asian sourcing, the potential for nearshoring to CEE, and EU consumer demand patterns will be the key variables shaping this market.