Market evolution: Wire rod coils low carbon (CN 72139910) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in low-carbon hot-rolled wire rod coils (Combined Nomenclature code 72139910) over the period 2015–2025. The product falls within the broader iron and steel category (CN 72) and covers bars and rods of iron or non-alloy steel, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, containing less than 0.25% carbon by weight — excluding circular cross-section products below 14 mm, free-cutting steel, and products with deformations produced during rolling. It corresponds to PRODCOM code 24.10.61.90 ("Other wire rod of non-alloy steel").

The decade under review was marked by substantial turbulence in global steel markets: the 2018 US Section 232 tariffs, EU safeguard measures, the COVID-19 demand shock, the 2021–2022 energy and commodity price surge, and the geopolitical disruptions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. All these events left visible imprints on the trade dynamics of this product. Across the period, the EU maintained a positive trade balance, but its underlying position evolved in important ways — volumes declined on both sides, unit values surged, supplier diversification increased, and the bloc's net import reliance rose markedly.

The data for this report is drawn from the EU Trade Dashboard.

1. Falling Volumes, Rising Prices: A Decade of Structural Compression

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the simultaneous decline in traded volumes and the sharp increase in unit values — a pattern observable on both the import and export sides.

1.1 EU exports held their value ground despite a third of their volume disappearing

Between the first and last year of the period, EU exports of CN 72139910 to non-EU countries fell from 51,804 tonnes to 33,030 tonnes — a contraction of 36.2%. Yet export value remained essentially flat, moving from €32.5 million to €32.5 million (–0.2%). The explanation lies in the dramatic rise of the average export unit value, which climbed from €628/t to €983/t, an increase of 56.6%. Export unit values peaked at €1,234/t in one year during the period, reflecting the global steel price spike of 2021–2022.

1.2 EU imports followed a comparable trajectory

Imports declined from 30,807 tonnes to 21,986 tonnes (–28.6%) in volume and from €15.5 million to €14.5 million (–6.2%) in value. The average import unit value rose from €502/t to €660/t (+31.4%), peaking at €904/t. The EU's trade balance remained in surplus throughout, ending at €17.9 million in 2025 compared to €17.0 million in 2015 (+5.3%). However, this headline stability masks significant year-to-year swings: the balance dipped to as low as €4.1 million during one period, before recovering to a peak of €33.0 million.

1.3 EU production contracted in volume but not in value

This volume-price dynamic extended to the EU's domestic production. According to PRODCOM data (production volumes), EU production of this product fell from 8.6 billion kg to 6.3 billion kg (–26.9%) over the decade, while production value rose from €2.56 billion to €3.6 billion (+40.8%). This implies a significant increase in the domestic production unit value, consistent with the higher raw material and energy costs faced by EU steelmakers and the progressive shift of lower-value production to third countries.

2. Geographic Reconfiguration: Diversifying Suppliers and Concentrating Export Markets

The geographic structure of EU trade in this product underwent significant reconfiguration between 2015 and 2025, characterised by greater diversification of import origins and a more concentrated export footprint.

2.1 Import sources broadened considerably

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value declined from 4,522 to 2,649 (–41.4%), indicating a substantial reduction in import concentration. Switzerland remained the largest single supplier throughout, but its share eroded: import value from Switzerland fell from €9.9 million to €6.1 million (–38.5%). Meanwhile, several suppliers that were marginal or absent at the start of the period grew markedly:

The most dramatic growth came from Ukraine (+529%) and Russia (+3,515%), although the latter's trade was characterised by extreme volatility (coefficient of variation of 1.24). The United Kingdom nearly doubled its exports to the EU, likely reflecting the post-Brexit reorientation of trade flows. Within the EU, the member states most active in importing shifted: Italy's imports grew from €1.6 million to €5.8 million (+268%), while Germany's fell from €7.5 million to €3.7 million (–51%), and Spain's collapsed from €2.4 million to €0.2 million (–92%).

2.2 Export destinations became more concentrated

In contrast to the import side, the HHI for exports by value increased from 2,298 to 2,764 (+20.3%). The EU's export base narrowed, with a growing share directed to fewer partners. Liechtenstein (which likely reflects transit trade with Switzerland) remained the top destination, with its value rising from €12.2 million to €14.7 million (+20.8%) and exhibiting the lowest volatility of any major partner (CV of 0.10). The United Kingdom also grew as an export market (+40.1%).

The most dramatic declines were in exports to the United States (–89.6%) and Türkiye (–82.1%). The collapse in US-bound exports is consistent with the impact of the 2018 Section 232 tariffs and subsequent trade policy measures, representing a detected supply shock with an abnormality of 2.7 and a –96.2% supply shift in 2025. Exports to Türkiye, once worth €8.1 million at their peak, also withered to under €1 million.

2.3 Austria emerged as the EU's anchor exporter

Among EU member states, Austria was consistently the largest exporter of this product to non-EU countries, accounting for €16.8 million in 2025 (up from €13.7 million in 2015, +22.9%). Germany and Spain, once significant exporters, saw their shares erode (–44% and –68% respectively). Italy's exports grew from €3.9 million to €5.8 million (+49.8%). The specialisation analysis (RSCA rankings) confirms this pattern: Czechia (RSCA 0.60), Spain (0.47), and Austria (0.42) showed the strongest revealed comparative advantage in 2025, while Finland, Belgium, and the Netherlands displayed marked under-specialisation in this product.

3. Rising Import Dependence and Weakening Export Capacity

Beyond the bilateral flows, the structural indicators of the EU's trade position reveal a gradual erosion of self-sufficiency in this product segment.

3.1 Net import reliance more than doubled

The EU's net import reliance for CN 72139910 rose from 6.0% in 2015 to 15.7% in 2025 — an increase of 163.6%. At one point during the period, it briefly turned negative (–3.3%), meaning the EU temporarily became a significant net exporter relative to its apparent consumption. However, the trend since then has been decisively upward, reaching a peak of 17.2%. This indicates that while the EU's trade balance in value terms remained positive, the physical volume of imports grew relative to the declining domestic production base.

3.2 Export propensity declined while trade intensity increased

The export propensity — the share of EU production that is exported to non-EU countries — fell from 8.7% to 6.4% (–25.7%). This is the most salient vulnerability indicator in the dataset (salience score of 69.3), suggesting a structural shift: the EU is exporting a smaller fraction of what it produces. Meanwhile, trade intensity — the combined share of imports and exports in apparent consumption — increased from 20.6% to 25.2% (+22.5%). The EU's wire rod market has become more open in aggregate, but with a growing import orientation and a shrinking export footprint.

3.3 Supply-side volatility poses ongoing risks

The analysis of trade volatility reveals that the EU's key import partners exhibit a wide range of price stability. Switzerland, the largest supplier, had a relatively low coefficient of variation (0.30), while imports from Ukraine (CV 1.10) and Russia (CV 1.24) were highly erratic. A detected price shock in Swiss imports in 2022 — with an abnormality of 4.0, a 75.6% price shift, and a 48.3% value share — underscores how sensitive the EU's import bill is to pricing dynamics in its dominant supplier. On the export side, the concentration of shipments in a small number of destinations (notably Liechtenstein/Switzerland and the UK) means that any disruption to those corridors could have outsized effects on the EU's export performance.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's external trade in low-carbon hot-rolled wire rod coils (CN 72139910) underwent a fundamental transformation. Traded volumes contracted sharply on both the import (–29%) and export (–36%) sides, while unit values rose substantially — by 57% on exports and 31% on imports. The EU's trade balance in value terms remained comfortably in surplus, but this headline masked a deeper structural shift: production volumes fell by 27%, export propensity declined, and net import reliance more than doubled to 15.7%.

Geographically, the trade map was redrawn. The import side diversified, with new or growing suppliers such as Ukraine, the UK, and Algeria partially compensating for the contraction from Switzerland. The export side, however, became more concentrated, increasingly reliant on Liechtenstein/Switzerland and the UK, while losing significant market access to the United States and Türkiye. Austria consolidated its role as the EU's leading exporter, while Germany and Spain saw their positions weaken.

Looking ahead, the combination of declining domestic production volumes, rising import dependence, and export market concentration poses questions about the resilience of the EU's position in this product segment. The data suggests that the EU's wire rod sector is transitioning from a balanced trade posture toward one where import reliance plays a more prominent role — a development that is likely to attract continued policy attention in the context of the EU's steel safeguard measures and broader industrial strategy.