Market evolution: Wheat flour (CN 11010015) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of EU wheat flour (customs code 11010015 — Flour of common wheat and spelt) over the period 2015 to 2025, covering all EU trade with non-EU countries. Over this decade, the EU wheat flour market underwent a profound transformation: export volumes nearly halved while import volumes more than doubled, unit prices surged across both flows, and the geographic composition of partners shifted dramatically. The EU remains a net exporter of wheat flour, but its trade surplus narrowed by almost half in value terms. These changes reflect a combination of rising global commodity costs, post-Brexit trade restructuring, the redirection of Black Sea grain flows following the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and evolving competitive positioning within the milling industry.

I. A Structural Trade Rebalancing: Export Contraction Meets Import Surge

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the simultaneous contraction of EU wheat-flour exports and the rapid expansion of imports, producing a sharp erosion of the EU's trade surplus.

EU export volumes collapsed while import volumes doubled

(Source: General Overview — trade)

Export volumes fell by nearly half (−48.9%) over the decade, from 774,253 tonnes in 2015 to 395,606 tonnes in 2025. Despite this collapse, the total value of exports barely moved (−3.6%), thanks to a near-doubling of the unit price from €356/t to €672/t. On the import side, volumes more than doubled (+101.7%, from 141,054 t to 284,547 t), and value surged by 163.4% to reach €156.2 million by 2025. As a result, the EU's trade surplus shrank from €216.6 million to just €109.8 million — a decline of 49.3%.

Price inflation masked a severe volume deterioration

The decoupling between value and volume trajectories is a key feature of this period. Export prices reached a minimum of €344/t and a maximum of €690/t, reflecting the global commodity price shocks of 2022–2023 driven by the war in Ukraine and broader inflationary pressures. Import prices, while more moderate in their increase (+30.6%), also climbed significantly from €420/t to €549/t. This price environment meant that, in nominal terms, the trade balance appeared more resilient than the underlying volume data would suggest.

EU production grew steadily even as export performance weakened

Domestic EU production expanded by 5.7% in quantity (from 28.4 billion kg to 30 billion kg) and by 40.6% in value (from €7.1 billion to €10.0 billion). This suggests that the decline in exports was not caused by a supply-side contraction but rather by shifts in competitive positioning and demand patterns on international markets. The EU's milling industry has been producing more flour, but less of it is reaching non-EU destinations.

II. A Radically Redrawn Partner Landscape

The geographic composition of EU wheat-flour trade has been fundamentally reshaped over the decade, with some traditional markets collapsing and new partners — particularly from Eastern Europe and South Asia — rising to prominence.

Import sources shifted decisively toward Eastern Europe and the UK

(Source: Top partners — imports)

The United Kingdom dominates EU flour imports, accounting for roughly €108.8 million in 2025 — nearly 70% of all imports by value. This is a natural consequence of Brexit: flour shipments that were once intra-EU transfers now appear in the external trade statistics. Beyond the UK effect, the most dramatic growth came from Ukraine (+9,231%), Serbia (+1,074%), and India (+932%). Ukraine's surge reflects the EU's efforts to facilitate Ukrainian agricultural exports following the 2022 Russian invasion and the temporary trade liberalisation measures granted to Ukraine. Serbia and India represent emerging supply channels for the EU market.

The concentration of imports (measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index on value) declined from 5,804 to 4,975 (−14.3%), indicating a gradual diversification of import sources, even as the UK retained its dominant position.

EU export destinations saw extreme volatility and geographic upheaval

(Source: Top partners — exports)

The most dramatic story on the export side is the near-total collapse of EU flour exports to Angola — from €96.5 million in 2015 to a negligible €63,681 in 2025 (−99.9%). Angola had been the EU's single largest wheat-flour export market at the start of the period; its disappearance accounts for a very large share of the overall volume decline. Similarly, Sierra Leone (−99.9%) and Congo (−48.3%) saw steep declines, suggesting a broader retreat from Sub-Saharan African markets.

Conversely, the United States emerged as a major growth market (+238.1%), rising from €12.3 million to €41.4 million. The UK remained a stable export partner (+20.8%), and Guinea-Bissau emerged as a new significant destination (+1,719%). The concentration of exports dropped sharply (HHI from 1,529 to 674, −55.9%), reflecting both the loss of dominant markets like Angola and the emergence of new, more diversified destinations.

Within the EU, Italy has become the dominant flour exporter while Belgium and Portugal retreated

(Source: Top reporters — exports)

Italy's rise is extraordinary — from €33.9 million to €122.9 million (+262.2%) — making it the EU's leading flour exporter by 2025, overtaking France which halved its shipments. Belgium, once the second-largest exporter at €53.8 million, virtually exited the market (−95.9%). The Netherlands saw explosive growth (+389.8%), while Poland also expanded. On the import side, Ireland emerged as the dominant EU importer, growing from €35.8 million to €99.4 million (+178.0%), followed by Croatia (+1,309%) and France (+132.0%).

III. Reduced Vulnerability, Deeper Specialisation, and Isolated Price Shocks

Beyond the headline trade figures, structural indicators reveal how the EU's position in global wheat-flour trade has evolved in terms of self-sufficiency, competitive advantage, and exposure to supply disruptions.

The EU has moved closer to trade equilibrium but remains a net exporter

The net import reliance — defined as (imports − exports) / production — improved from −6.3% in 2015 to −1.2% in 2025. Negative values indicate a net export position: the EU has consistently exported more wheat flour than it imported. However, the convergence toward zero signals a significant structural shift: the EU's external surplus is shrinking.

(Source: Net import reliance, Trade intensity, Export propensity)

Trade intensity — the combined share of imports and exports relative to production — declined from 6.9% to 4.5% (−34.9%), indicating that the EU wheat flour market has become somewhat more domestically oriented. Export propensity, which measures exports as a share of production, fell even more sharply from 6.5% to 2.9% (−55.4%). The salience analysis confirms that export propensity has declined more severely than trade intensity overall.

Competitive specialisation has concentrated among a few EU members

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) analysis for 2025 shows a marked division:

(Most specialised exporters — source)

(Least specialised — source)

Luxembourg shows a very high RCA (5.96) in wheat flour, though its absolute trade volumes are small (production share of just 1.9%). Germany and Italy — which together account for over half of EU flour production by volume — both display meaningful comparative advantages (RCA of 1.84 and 1.69 respectively). By contrast, Ireland, Cyprus, Sweden, Romania, and Finland are net importers with essentially no export specialisation in this product.

Volatility has been concentrated in fragile markets, and isolated price shocks were detected

The volatility analysis reveals that the most volatile trade relationships — measured by the coefficient of variation (CV) of annual values — tend to involve geopolitically fragile or distant partners. On the import side, Libya (CV 2.00), Ukraine (1.67), and the UAE (1.35) show the highest volatility. On the export side, Angola (1.22), Congo (1.18), and Chad (1.14) are the most unstable.

Three price shocks were flagged in the data:

These events, while dramatic in percentage terms, involved relatively small shares of total EU export value (0.8%–2.6%) and therefore had limited macro-level impact. They do, however, illustrate the instability inherent in trade with conflict-affected or institutionally fragile partners.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU wheat flour market underwent a fundamental transformation characterised by three intertwined dynamics. First, a severe contraction in export volumes (−48.9%) — driven largely by the loss of major Sub-Saharan African markets like Angola — was partially masked by soaring unit prices, leaving nominal export values nearly flat. Second, import volumes more than doubled (+101.7%), propelled by the UK's reclassification as an external partner after Brexit, the emergence of Ukrainian flour exports facilitated by EU trade preferences, and growing shipments from Serbia and India. Third, the EU's net export surplus shrank by almost half, its export propensity fell by 55%, and the market became more domestically oriented.

At the same time, the EU's trade became more diversified: both import and export concentration indices declined significantly. Italy emerged as the EU's dominant flour exporter, displacing France and the collapsed Belgian trade. Production volumes held steady and even grew modestly, confirming that the trade shifts reflect changing competitive dynamics rather than domestic supply constraints.

Looking ahead, the key question is whether the EU's wheat flour trade will stabilise around a new, more balanced equilibrium — with lower export volumes but higher domestic consumption and selective imports — or whether further erosion of export competitiveness is to come. The continued price premium on EU flour exports (€672/t versus €549/t on imports) suggests that the EU's milling sector operates in a higher-cost environment, which may increasingly orient production toward domestic and nearby markets rather than long-distance trade with Sub-Saharan Africa.