Market evolution: Welded stainless steel tubes (CN 73064080) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's trade dynamics for welded stainless steel tubes of circular cross-section (customs code 73064080) over the 2015–2025 period. The product encompasses a range of industrial applications, excluding cold-drawn/rolled products, large-diameter tubes (>406.4 mm), and line pipe or casing/tubing used in oil and gas drilling (Scope & Definitions).

Over the decade, the EU has remained a structural net exporter of this product. However, the data reveals a progressive erosion of that position, driven by a combination of declining export volumes, rising import volumes, and significant price divergence between inbound and outbound flows. The following sections detail these shifts and their underlying causes.

1. A Widening Import Base Challenging the EU's Net Export Position

The EU's trade surplus in welded stainless steel tubes has narrowed significantly over the period. While the Union maintained a positive trade balance throughout, the structural dynamics point to a market under increasing import pressure.

1.1. Export volumes have declined while import volumes surged

EU exports fell from 71,689 tonnes in 2015 to 58,781 tonnes in 2025, a contraction of -18.0%. Over the same period, imports grew from 32,232 tonnes to 53,652 tonnes, an increase of 66.5% (General Overview). By the end of the period, the gap between export and import volumes had narrowed considerably: in 2015, the EU exported 2.2 times the volume it imported; by 2025, that ratio had fallen to approximately 1.1 times.

1.2. Price dynamics masked the volume trend in nominal value terms

Despite the volume decline, EU export values rose from €329 million to €357 million (+8.4%), entirely driven by a 32.2% increase in unit export prices (from €4,592/t to €6,070/t). Import prices rose more modestly, from €3,503/t to €3,824/t (+9.1%), meaning that EU exporters increasingly operated in a premium price segment relative to their competitors (General Overview).

1.3. The trade balance eroded despite stable export earnings

The EU's trade surplus contracted from €216 million to €152 million (-29.8%). The net import reliance indicator, which is negative when the EU is a net exporter, moved from -16.4% to -9.1% — a 44.8% increase toward zero, confirming the structural shift. Concurrently, export propensity (the share of EU production that is exported) fell from 20.8% to 16.0%, while trade intensity declined from 25.8% to 22.0%.

1.4. New Asian suppliers emerged as a dominant force in EU imports

The composition of EU import sources changed markedly. Three suppliers stand out for their extraordinary growth:

(Source: Top partners by value — imports)

Taiwan and China consolidated their positions as the two largest extra-EU suppliers, while Viet Nam's growth — from a negligible base to €19 million — signals the emergence of Southeast Asian stainless steel producers as competitors. Türkiye and India also expanded their share significantly, suggesting competitive cost structures outside the EU.

2. Concentration and Specialisation: The EU's Internal Export Landscape Is Shifting

Behind the aggregate trade figures, the internal EU landscape reveals divergent national trajectories, with a handful of member states dominating both production and export activity.

2.1. Italy and Germany anchor EU exports, but with different trajectories

Italy and Germany together account for the lion's share of EU exports to non-EU countries. In 2025, Italian exports stood at €110 million (up 28.2% from 2015), while German exports were essentially flat at €104 million (+0.5%). Other member states with notable export activity include Finland (€37 million, +39.7%), Spain (€18 million, +94.7%), and Belgium (€13 million, +175.4%). Conversely, the Netherlands saw exports collapse from €42 million to €13 million (-69.7%) (Top reporters by value — exports).

2.2. EU production grew strongly in value, despite modest volume increases

EU domestic production data shows a striking divergence between physical output and value. Production volumes rose from 1.17 billion kg to 1.24 billion kg (+6.0%), while the estimated production value surged from €1.34 billion to €3.75 billion (+179.6%) (Production volumes). This implies a sharp rise in domestic prices or a shift toward higher-value product specifications within the same CN code.

2.3. Specialisation remains highly concentrated in southern and northern Europe

In 2025, Italy and Finland display the strongest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in this product among EU members, with RCA indices of 6.96 and 5.25 respectively (Most specialised reporters). Italy alone accounts for over 55% of EU production in this category. By contrast, countries such as Ireland (RCA 0.01), Portugal (0.02), and Romania (0.02) are essentially absent from this market. This concentration suggests that competitive capacity in welded stainless steel tubes is geographically uneven within the EU.

2.4. Import sources diversified while export destinations concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports declined from 2,145 to 1,744 (-18.7%), indicating reduced concentration among suppliers — consistent with the emergence of new sources such as Viet Nam, Türkiye, and India. By contrast, the export HHI rose from 662 to 933 (+41.0%), suggesting that EU exports became more reliant on a smaller number of destination markets over the period.

3. Price Shocks and Volatility: Geopolitical and Structural Disruptions

The 2015–2025 period saw significant price volatility, particularly in 2021–2022, reflecting both macroeconomic disruptions and structural shifts in global stainless steel supply chains.

3.1. Import prices for Chinese stainless steel tubes spiked in 2022

The most significant import-side price shock occurred in 2022, when the unit value of imports from China surged by 52.8% relative to trend, with an abnormality score of 6.0. This episode coincided with the global post-pandemic industrial recovery and surging nickel and energy prices, which disproportionately affected stainless steel production costs. China's share of EU import value in that year reached 26.2%.

3.2. Export prices to the United Kingdom also exhibited a marked shock in 2022

On the export side, EU prices for tubes shipped to the United Kingdom jumped by 36.5% with an abnormality of 6.5 in 2022. Given that the UK is the EU's largest single export destination (€64 million in 2025, representing 17.9% of total extra-EU exports), this price shock had outsized effects on aggregate export unit values. The UK market appears to be relatively price-sensitive in its relationship with EU suppliers, with a relatively low volatility coefficient of 0.17 for export flows.

3.3. Oman exports collapsed, revealing high fragility in certain destination markets

The most dramatic single-market shock occurred in Oman. EU exports to Oman fell from €24 million in 2015 to just €75 thousand in 2025 — a decline of 99.7%. This market exhibited extreme volatility (coefficient of variation of 1.44 for exports), and a price shock with an abnormality of 237.3 was detected in 2021. While the reasons may include project-completion cycles or shifts in Middle Eastern procurement strategies, the near-total disappearance of this market underscores the fragility of concentrated export relationships.

3.4. Southeast Asian import flows show high structural volatility

Among import sources, Viet Nam (CV 0.88), Malaysia (CV 1.60), and Ukraine (CV 1.11) display high volatility in import flows. While these markets have grown rapidly — Viet Nam from virtually zero to €19 million — the irregularity of the flows suggests that EU buyers may treat these sources as supplementary or opportunistic rather than as core supply partners.

Conclusion

The EU market for welded stainless steel tubes (CN 73064080) has undergone a significant structural transformation over 2015–2025. While the EU remains a net exporter, its competitive position has weakened: export volumes have fallen by 18%, while import volumes have grown by 67%. The trade surplus has contracted by nearly 30% in value terms.

The erosion is driven by a combination of (i) the emergence of new, lower-cost Asian suppliers — notably China, Viet Nam, and India — and (ii) a shift in EU exports toward premium-priced segments, which has sustained nominal export values but not physical volumes. Italy and Finland remain the EU's most specialised producers, but the overall export base has become more concentrated on fewer destination markets, raising questions about diversification.

The 2021–2022 period was marked by significant price shocks across both import and export flows, linked to global commodity price surges and post-pandemic supply chain disruptions. These episodes tested the resilience of EU trade relationships and revealed that certain markets (such as Oman) can disappear rapidly.

Going forward, the key dynamics to monitor include: the continued penetration of Asian suppliers into the EU market; the sustainability of high unit-value export strategies; and the EU's ability to diversify both its supplier base and its export destinations to reduce vulnerability to single-market shocks.