Market evolution: Vehicle petrol engines (CN 84073499) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in spark-ignition reciprocating piston engines over 1,500 cm³ destined for vehicles of Chapter 87 (CN 84073499) between 2015 and 2025. Over this eleven-year window, the EU has remained a strong net exporter of these engines, maintaining a trade surplus of roughly €2.9 billion throughout the period. However, beneath this surface stability the market underwent profound structural transformation: export and import volumes contracted sharply, unit values rose substantially, long-standing trade partnerships were disrupted by geopolitical events, and production shifted significantly between EU member states. The period also coincides with the accelerating transition toward electrified powertrains — a macro-trend whose imprint is clearly visible in the declining physical volumes recorded in the data. The following sections analyse these dynamics in detail, drawing on the general trade overview, partner-level breakdowns, and concentration indicators.

1. Declining Volumes and Surging Unit Values: The Twin Face of a Market in Transition

1.1 Export volumes fell by nearly 40 % in mass and over 42 % in unit count

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's export quantity of CN 84073499 engines dropped from 265,198 tonnes to 160,420 tonnes (−39.5 %), while the supplementary unit count declined from 1,752,712 pieces to 1,011,825 pieces (−42.3 %). These are the lowest values recorded in the entire 2015–2025 window, indicating that the contraction was not cyclical but secular.

1.2 Import volumes contracted even more steeply, falling by over half

On the import side, the decline was even more pronounced. Mass-based imports fell from 94,208 tonnes to 42,992 tonnes (−54.4 %), and unit-based imports from 748,878 pieces to 304,550 pieces (−59.3 %). Import value dropped from €1.24 billion to €784 million (−36.6 %). As with exports, unit prices rose significantly — by +38.9 % per tonne and +55.8 % per piece — suggesting that the engines traded at the end of the period are either more technologically sophisticated, heavier per unit, or both.

1.3 Domestic production mirrored the volume collapse but gained in value

The EU's domestic production of these engines tells a consistent story. Output fell from 6,155,178 units to 4,000,320 units (−35.0 %), yet total production value rose from €9.8 billion to €12.0 billion (+22.5 %). The implied average production value per unit therefore jumped from roughly €1,592 to €3,000 — an increase of approximately 88 % — confirming that what remains of the market is shifting toward higher-value, larger-displacement, and likely more technologically complex petrol engines. This is consistent with the broader industry trend of smaller, lower-margin engines being progressively replaced by electrified alternatives, while the surviving petrol-engine portfolio concentrates on premium and performance segments.

2. Geopolitical Ruptures and Rerouted Supply Chains

2.1 Russia: a total export collapse after 2022 sanctions

The most dramatic single shock in the dataset is the disappearance of EU exports to the Russian Federation. Russia was the EU's third-largest export destination in 2015 (€211 million), peaking at €294 million before collapsing to just €27,513 in 2025 — a decline of −99.9 %. The shock is classified as a supply-side disruption with an abnormality score of 2.4, confirming it as the single largest trade rupture in the period. This is directly attributable to the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which progressively banned the export of automotive components. The coefficient of variation for this trade flow stands at 0.70, reflecting the abruptness of the break.

2.2 The United Kingdom: a post-Brexit structural decline

The United Kingdom experienced a sustained decline as both an export and import partner. EU exports to the UK fell from €669 million (2015) to €177 million (2025), a drop of −73.6 %. Imports from the UK — historically the EU's single largest source of these engines — fell from €745 million to €399 million (−46.4 %). The UK export flow exhibits the highest volatility among the EU's major export partners, with a coefficient of variation of 1.04. The decline is structural: the UK's departure from the EU single market introduced new customs frictions and rules-of-origin requirements for automotive goods, while the UK's own automotive production has simultaneously contracted. Despite the fall, the UK remained the EU's top import source in 2025, suggesting deeply embedded supply-chain links that cannot be rerouted overnight.

2.3 Türkiye and China: the new growth poles

Against the backdrop of declining volumes overall, two partners stand out for their rapid growth:

• Türkiye became the EU's fastest-growing import source, surging from €27 million to €225 million (+743 %). Türkiye's position as a growing automotive manufacturing hub — with major investments by European and Asian OEMs — explains this trend. By 2025, it had become the EU's second-largest import partner by value, displacing traditional sources.
• China grew from €1.5 million to €42 million as an import source (+2,766 %), and from €35 million to €193 million as an export destination (+456 %). The rapid rise in Chinese imports signals the growing competitiveness of Chinese engine manufacturing, while the increase in exports to China may reflect European OEMs supplying engines for locally assembled vehicles.
• Mexico similarly emerged as a major export growth market, rising from €276 million to €671 million (+143.3 %), reflecting the expansion of European OEM assembly operations in Mexico. Conversely, EU imports from Mexico collapsed from €202 million to just €7 million (−96.4 %), indicating that engine production for re-import to Europe has been relocated.

2.4 North American trade flows shifted markedly

The United States remained the EU's single largest export market throughout the period, with exports stable at roughly €2.0 billion (€1.98 billion in 2015, €2.02 billion in 2025, +1.5 %). This stability — the lowest volatility among major EU export partners (CV = 0.12) — underscores the deep integration of European engine supply into North American vehicle assembly chains. However, EU imports from the US fell dramatically from €135 million to €15 million (−89.1 %), and imports from Canada dropped from €290 million to €4.4 million (−84.7 %). The combined North American import share thus collapsed, further evidence that engine production intended for the EU market has been relocated away from North America.

3. Shifting Production Centres and Rising Concentration Within Europe

3.1 Austria emerged as the EU's second-largest engine exporter

Among EU member-state reporters, the most striking shift was Austria's rise. Austrian exports of CN 84073499 engines surged from €339 million (2015) to €1,266 million (2025), a gain of +273 %. Austria's revealed comparative advantage (RSCA = 0.69) ranks it as the EU's second-most specialised exporter in this product, behind only Hungary. This growth is consistent with the expansion of engine manufacturing capacity by major producers in Austria (notably the Steyr plant).

3.2 Germany remained dominant but lost significant share

Germany exported €2.51 billion worth of these engines in 2015, accounting for roughly 60 % of total EU exports. By 2025 this had fallen to €1.61 billion (−35.8 %), though Germany remained by far the largest single exporter. Germany's specialisation index (RSCA = 0.28) is moderate, reflecting the broad diversification of its manufacturing base. Notably, German imports also fell sharply, from €601 million to €346 million (−42.3 %), consistent with the broader volume decline.

3.3 Export concentration increased while import concentration decreased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU exports rose from 2,766 to 3,505 (+26.7 %), indicating that export flows became more concentrated on fewer destination markets — principally the United States, Mexico, and South Africa. The share of the top three export partners (US, Mexico, South Africa) grew as Russia and the UK dropped away.

Conversely, import HHI fell from 4,056 to 3,555 (−12.4 %), meaning that import sources became somewhat more diversified. The decline of the UK's dominant share was partially offset by the rise of Türkiye, China, and Korea, producing a less concentrated import base — though it remains moderately concentrated by standard thresholds. Romania also surged as an importing member state, with imports rising from €36 million to €219 million (+509 %), likely reflecting the expansion of vehicle assembly operations (e.g., Dacia/Renault) in the country.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's market for petrol vehicle engines above 1,500 cm³ underwent a clear structural contraction in physical terms, with volumes declining by 35–60 % depending on the metric. This decline was only partially offset by rising unit values — themselves a sign of portfolio polarisation toward premium and high-performance engines as smaller petrol units face electrification. Geopolitical events left deep marks: EU sanctions eliminated Russia as an export market overnight, while Brexit progressively severed UK–EU engine trade. Meanwhile, Türkiye and China emerged as fast-growing partners on both the import and export sides, and Austria displaced Spain and France as Europe's second-largest engine exporter alongside Germany. The net result is a market that is smaller in volume, more geographically concentrated on the export side, and increasingly reliant on a handful of destination markets — above all the United States, which alone absorbs more than half of all EU exports by value. Looking ahead, the continued electrification of the global vehicle fleet will exert further downward pressure on traded volumes, while the remaining trade is likely to concentrate ever more heavily in the premium segment.