Market evolution: Automotive petrol engines (CN 84073491) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of new spark-ignition petrol engines with a cylinder capacity between 1,000 and 1,500 cm³ (CN 84073491) for the European Union over the period 2015 to 2025. The engine segment covered is a key component for passenger vehicles, and its trade evolution reflects broader shifts in the European automotive industry's global supply chains and production strategies.

Based on the general trade overview, the period is characterised by a profound structural transformation. The EU has transitioned from a position of strong net exporter to one approaching trade balance, driven by a significant contraction in export volumes and a concurrent rise in import values. This shift is coupled with a clear move towards higher-unit-value products and a major realignment of key trading partners.

The Collapse of the Export Engine and the Rise of Import Dependence

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic reversal in the EU's trade position for this engine category. The bloc began the period as a major net exporter but saw this advantage erode substantially, leaving its trade balance precariously thin.

The steep decline in export volumes and value

EU exports of CN 84073491 engines fell sharply across all key metrics between 2015 and 2025:

The 98% collapse in the supplementary unit count (engine pieces) is particularly severe and indicates a fundamental change in the nature of exports, potentially moving away from mass-volume engine shipments. While the average price per tonne rose by 8.9% (from ~€14,898/t to ~€16,223/t), the supplementary unit price (value per engine) exploded by 3,561%, suggesting a radical shift in the product mix or reporting toward much more expensive, niche, or complete powertrain units.

Simultaneous growth and instability in imports

In contrast, EU imports grew in value, albeit with significant volatility:

The more moderate growth in quantity (tonnes and units) compared to value (36.6%) confirms that import prices also increased substantially, with the average price per tonne rising by 24.7% (from ~€12,419/t to ~€15,491/t). This price inflation aligns with the global trend of rising input and production costs, as well as a potential shift in import composition toward higher-specification engines.

Erosion of the EU's trade surplus

The combined effect of declining exports and growing imports led to a severe compression of the EU's trade surplus. The positive balance peaked at over €628.7 million but, after a period of deficit in some years, settled at €202.1 million in 2025—a 61.2% decline from the start of the period. This trajectory highlights the EU's growing import dependency for this engine segment.

A Geographical Realignment of Supply Chains and Destinations

The period witnessed a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's key trading partners for CN 84073491 engines, moving away from traditional partners toward new manufacturing hubs.

The decline of traditional partners: The UK and Others

The United Kingdom's role diminished sharply, reflecting post-Brexit supply chain reconfigurations. It was the EU's top import source in 2015 (€268.1 million) but fell to the second position by 2025 (€141.7 million, -47.1%). As an export destination, its decline was even steeper, falling from the top spot (€154.7 million) to fourth (€39.0 million, -74.8%). South Korea and Russia, once significant export destinations, saw their trade with the EU collapse by over 90% and 88% respectively by 2025.

The ascent of new engine sourcing hubs

Several countries have emerged as critical new import sources for the EU, reshaping its supply security profile:

The concentration index (HHI) for imports fell by 66.6% (from 9,220 to 3,075), indicating that the EU's import sources became significantly more diversified, reducing dependency on any single country.

Emerging export hubs: Morocco, Türkiye, and Central Europe

The map of EU engine exports has also been redrawn. Morocco has risen from near-zero (€20,000 in 2015) to become a major destination (€93.4 million in 2025), likely reflecting investments in integrated Euro-Mediterranean automotive production networks. Türkiye grew by 137.1% to €163.8 million. Within the EU, Poland saw its exports explode by 193,957% to €202.9 million, establishing it as the EU's top exporter in 2025, while Hungary and Czechia also grew significantly. This points to a strong eastward reorientation of engine production and export capacity within the EU.

Market Transformation: Specialisation, Volatility, and a Move Upmarket

Beyond trade flows, the market structure itself has undergone a fundamental transformation, characterised by increased specialisation in Central Europe, heightened supply chain volatility, and a definitive shift toward higher-value production.

Internal specialisation and production value growth

The EU's engine production landscape is highly specialised. In 2025, Poland and Hungary demonstrated strong Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) scores of 0.79 and 0.71, respectively. These countries, alongside Austria, have become specialised production and export hubs for this engine segment. At the EU level, production quantity fell by 35.0% (from 6.16 million to 4.00 million engines), but production value rose by 22.5% (from €9.80 billion to €12.00 billion). This stark divergence confirms a strategic move upmarket towards more complex, higher-value, and likely more efficient engines.

Volatile supply chains and price shocks

The EU's import supply chain for these engines has been volatile. Key partners like India and Mexico exhibit high coefficient of variation (CV) scores (2.33 and 1.02), indicating unstable year-on-year flows. Several significant price shocks were detected around 2020–2021, likely linked to global pandemic-induced supply chain disruptions, semiconductor shortages, and logistics bottlenecks.

Conclusion

The EU market for 1.0–1.5L petrol engines (CN 84073491) between 2015 and 2025 has been fundamentally reshaped. The era of the EU as a dominant net exporter has ended, replaced by a more balanced but import-reliant position. This change is underpinned by a severe contraction in traditional export markets and volumes, offset only in part by rising import values.

The geographic centre of gravity for both sourcing and destination has shifted. The UK's role has receded, while emerging economies like India and Mexico have become critical import sources. Simultaneously, the EU's export landscape has pivoted towards the Mediterranean (Morocco) and, most notably, towards its own eastern member states, with Poland becoming the bloc's leading exporter. This internal shift is part of a broader transformation where the EU produces fewer engines but of significantly higher value, indicating a move towards more advanced, premium powertrain technology.

The market's increased geographical diversification for imports offers some resilience, but the high volatility observed with key new partners underscores persistent supply chain risks. The data tells a clear story: this segment of the European automotive industry is consolidating, moving upmarket, and being reconfigured within a new, more complex global network.

Appendix: Top EU Member State Exporters in 2025

Source: Data extracted from the Trade Dashboard.