Market evolution: Unsorted diamonds (CN 710210) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the European Union's trade in unsorted diamonds (customs code 710210) over the 2015-2025 period. The EU is a major global trading hub for diamonds, but its domestic production is negligible, making the bloc heavily reliant on imports. The analysis reveals a market undergoing significant structural transformation, characterized by a sharp contraction in traded physical volumes coupled with a surge in unit prices, a dramatic reorientation of trade partnerships, and notable price and supply shocks. These dynamics point to a shift from a volume-driven market to one where value is concentrated in fewer, higher-quality or higher-priced transactions.
1. Contraction of Trade Volumes and the Rise of Unit Values
Over the decade under review, the EU's physical trade in unsorted diamonds contracted substantially, but the value of these goods did not decline at the same rate, leading to a sharp increase in average unit prices. This suggests a move towards sourcing higher-value stones or a significant repricing of the commodity.
1.1 Dramatic decline in physical import and export quantities
The EU's trade in unsorted diamonds, measured in mass (tonnes) and supplementary units (carats), has fallen sharply since 2015. The decline is evident across both imports and exports.
| Metric | 2015 Value | 2025 Value | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports (Quantity - Tonnes) | 3.593 t | 1.522 t | -57.6% |
| Imports (Supp. Quantity - Carats) | 17.69 million c/k | 7.33 million c/k | -58.6% |
| Exports (Quantity - Tonnes) | 0.080 t | 0.002 t | -97.5% |
| Exports (Supp. Quantity - Carats) | 1.92 million c/k | 0.03 million c/k | -98.2% |
The contraction was particularly severe in exports, which fell by over 97% by mass. This indicates a shrinking role for the EU as a physical re-exporter of unsorted rough diamonds in their raw form.
1.2 Significant increase in average unit prices
Despite the fall in volume, the average value per unit of diamond imported into the EU increased dramatically. Import prices (EUR per tonne) rose by 81.8%, while the price per carat (EUR per c/k) increased by 85.6%.
| Flow | Price Metric (2015) | Price Metric (2025) | Percentage Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | 173.1 million EUR/t | 314.7 million EUR/t | +81.8% |
| Imports | 35.21 EUR/c/k | 65.35 EUR/c/k | +85.6% |
| Exports | 1.73 million EUR/t | 20.94 million EUR/t | +1112.4% |
| Exports | 252.24 EUR/c/k | 131.68 EUR/c/k | -47.8% |
The 1112% surge in the export price per tonne is particularly striking, though it occurred from a very low base and with minimal volume, making it sensitive to small transaction changes. The consistent rise in import unit values is more significant, pointing to either inflation in rough diamond prices or a strategic shift to sourcing higher-quality stones.
2. Reconfiguration of Trade Partnerships and Geographic Concentration
The landscape of the EU's diamond trade partners has undergone a radical transformation. Historical dominance by a single partner has given way to a more diversified, though still concentrated, import base. Concurrently, the EU's export markets have shifted away from traditional partners.
2.1 The collapse of the United Kingdom as the primary EU supplier
In 2015, the United Kingdom was the overwhelmingly dominant source of EU imports, accounting for €594.6 million of the €622.9 million total. By 2025, imports from the UK had collapsed to a negligible €4,553. This represents a 100% decline in value share and is the single most significant structural shift in the market. This collapse likely reflects the end of the UK's role as a conduit or processing hub following Brexit, forcing EU importers to source diamonds directly from other origins.
2.2 Rise of new primary suppliers: Canada, South Africa, and Brazil
With the decline of the UK, the EU has rapidly diversified its import sources. Canada has emerged as the new top supplier, growing from €9.8 million in 2015 to €345.2 million in 2025. South Africa also saw substantial growth, from €23.5 million to €94.1 million. Emerging suppliers like Brazil (€0.5m to €14.6m), Australia (€0.03m to €4.3m), and the Democratic Republic of Congo (€0.03m to €3.2m) have also grown from near-zero bases, indicating a broadening of the supply chain.
| Import Partner | 2015 Value (€) | 2025 Value (€) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 594,608,708 | 4,553 | -100.0% |
| Canada | 9,844,009 | 345,165,522 | +3406.4% |
| South Africa | 23,521,310 | 94,080,078 | +300.0% |
| Brazil | 519,827 | 14,614,666 | +2711.4% |
| Australia | 26,998 | 4,262,182 | +15687.0% |
2.3 Shift in EU export destinations
For exports, the traditional partner, the United Kingdom, also saw its role diminish dramatically (-99.2%). Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) solidified its position as the primary destination, growing from €0.5 million to €1.8 million. New markets like India (€3,780 to €530,340) and the United States (€15 to €81,549) have emerged as significant outlets for the EU's limited exports of unsorted diamonds.
3. Market Shocks, Price Volatility, and Strategic Vulnerability
The market experienced acute shocks and persistent volatility, particularly in key bilateral relationships. These events, combined with the EU's near-total import reliance, highlight vulnerabilities in the supply chain.
3.1 Catastrophic supply shock and price volatility with the United Kingdom
The Volatility & Shocks analysis identifies two major abnormal events involving the UK:
- 2020: A price shock in exports to the UK with a 3606.3% shift and an abnormality score of 25.7. This indicates an extreme, anomalous price movement in a single year.
- 2023: A supply shock in imports from the UK, with a -99.9% shift and an abnormality score of 2.1, marking the final collapse of this trade flow.
The high volatility in the UK trade corridor (Coefficient of Variation of 1.33 for imports, 2.98 for exports) underscores its instability and eventual demise.
3.2 Diversification reduces, but does not eliminate, concentration risk
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell from 9128 in 2015 to 5606 in 2025, indicating a move from a highly concentrated to a moderately concentrated market. However, the new top suppliers (Canada, South Africa) now command large shares. The Autonomy & Vulnerability metrics show that net import reliance remains at 99.9%, confirming the EU has no meaningful domestic production (Production is negligible at 80 carats in 2025). The trade intensity remains very high (~198%), confirming the EU's role as a major trade intermediary, but this is now built on a more diversified, yet still fragile, import base.
Conclusion
The EU's market for unsorted diamonds between 2015 and 2025 was defined by a profound structural shift. The period saw a massive contraction in physical trade volumes, offset by sharply rising unit values, suggesting a focus on higher-value rough stones. Geographically, the market was completely reoriented following the collapse of the United Kingdom as the primary hub, leading to a rapid and successful diversification towards direct sourcing from producer nations like Canada and South Africa. Despite this diversification, which lowered concentration indices, the EU remains almost entirely import-dependent. The data reveals a market that has navigated a major supply shock and evolved into a more complex, value-driven, but still vulnerable, global trade network.