Market evolution: Rough diamonds (CN 710231) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the trade evolution of rough, non-industrial diamonds (Customs code 710231) by the European Union with non-EU countries from 2015 to 2025. The period was characterized by a dramatic contraction in trade volumes and values, a significant reconfiguration of key partnerships, and an increase in market concentration and vulnerability to external shocks, particularly following 2022.
A Steep and Sustained Contraction in Trade Volumes and Value
The EU's trade in rough diamonds experienced a profound decline over the decade, with the sharpest losses occurring in the most recent years. Both import and export values and quantities fell by over 70% from their first to last observed periods.
| Flow | Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports | Value (EUR) | 8.90 B | 2.16 B | -75.7 |
| Imports | Quantity (tonnes) | 15.31 | 3.47 | -77.3 |
| Exports | Value (EUR) | 9.25 B | 2.49 B | -73.1 |
| Exports | Quantity (tonnes) | 18.04 | 5.05 | -72.0 |
The EU maintained a consistent trade surplus in this sector, though the surplus narrowed from €355 million in 2015 to €325 million in 2025. The average price per tonne for imports rose by 7.7%, while for exports it dipped by 3.1%, suggesting a potential shift in the quality or sourcing of diamonds traded. The entire EU trade volume is overwhelmingly concentrated in Belgium, which accounts for nearly all imports and exports of this product. For a detailed overview of these trends, see the General Overview.
A Tectonic Shift in Key Trade Partners
The partner landscape underwent a dramatic restructuring, particularly from 2022 onwards. Major historical suppliers and customers saw their trade relationships with the EU collapse.
Imports: From Russia and the Gulf to Africa
- The Russian Federation, historically the EU's top supplier by value, saw imports plummet by 85.7% from 2015 to 2025, a decline likely accelerated by sanctions following 2022.
- The United Arab Emirates (UAE) saw an even more dramatic collapse of -98.8%, essentially exiting as a direct supplier.
- In contrast, African producers like Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Botswana showed more resilient or even growing trade links, partially filling the void left by Russia and the UAE.
Exports: A Retreat from Traditional Hubs
- India remains the primary destination for EU rough diamond exports, but trade value fell by 75.2%.
- The UAE and Hong Kong, other key processing hubs, saw exports to them drop by -50.7% and -92.1% respectively.
- This contraction in export partners was broad-based, indicating a structural reduction in the volume of rough diamonds flowing through the EU's primary trading hub. The evolution of these partnerships can be explored via the by-country data.
Increasing Concentration, Volatility, and Vulnerability
The market structure evolved towards greater concentration and exposure to external shocks, raising vulnerability concerns for the EU.
Rising Import Concentration The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value rose by 41.4% to 2023, indicating that the EU's import base became significantly less diversified and more reliant on a narrower set of suppliers.
| Concentration (HHI) | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports (by value) | 1431 | 2023 | +41.4 |
| Exports (by value) | 4433 | 4426 | -0.1 |
Identification of Price Shocks The volatility analysis identified three significant price shocks centered around 2022, aligning with the period of the steepest trade declines and geopolitical shifts:
- A major price shock in EU imports from Angola (+77.6% shift).
- An even larger shock in EU exports to the UAE (+90.6% shift).
- A corresponding shock in EU imports from the UAE (+53.8% shift).
These shocks, occurring simultaneously with the collapse in trade volumes, suggest a period of acute market disruption and repricing. The EU's net import reliance remains near 100% (Net import reliance), confirming its total dependence on external sources. The data on supply shocks details these events.
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's rough diamond market contracted severely. The volume and value of trade fell by over 70%, driven by a combination of reduced global demand flows and geopolitical realignments, most notably the sharp reduction in trade with Russia and the UAE post-2022. While the EU maintained a trade surplus, the market structure became more concentrated and volatile. The near-complete reliance on imports underscores a fundamental vulnerability, while the identified price shocks highlight the sector's susceptibility to external pressures. The data points to a market that is smaller, more focused, and more exposed to risks than it was a decade prior.