Market evolution: Toy sets (CN 95030070) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's trade in toy sets classified under customs code CN 95030070 — a residual category covering toys put up in sets or outfits, excluding electric trains, construction sets, and puzzles. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU toy set market underwent a pronounced transformation: imports nearly doubled in value while domestic production barely grew, resulting in a trade deficit that widened from approximately EUR 512 million to over EUR 1 billion. At the same time, the geography of sourcing shifted meaningfully away from near-total dependence on China toward a more diversified — though still China-dominated — supply base. This report analyses these dynamics across three axes: the structural expansion of the import market, the reconfiguration of trade partners, and the implications for resilience and volatility.

1. A Market Sustained Almost Entirely by Rising Imports

The EU trade deficit in toy sets roughly doubled over the decade

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade balance in toy sets deteriorated from −EUR 512.0 million to −EUR 1,000.4 million — a worsening of 95.4%. The deficit reached its deepest point at −EUR 1,269.7 million before partially recovering in the most recent years. This widening gap was driven by import growth far outstripping export growth:

Imports thus grew at a rate 1.6 times faster than exports, steadily widening the structural deficit.

Import volumes nearly doubled while unit prices declined slightly

The growth in import value was primarily volume-driven. Import quantities surged from 88,341 tonnes to 171,601 tonnes (+94.2%), while the average import price edged down from EUR 7,457 per tonne to EUR 7,150 per tonne (−4.1%). This suggests that the EU's growing appetite for toy sets was met primarily through higher volumes of relatively low-cost products — consistent with mass-produced sets sourced from Asia.

In contrast, export volumes grew more modestly (from 12,888 to 17,245 tonnes, +33.8%), but export unit prices rose from EUR 11,393 to EUR 13,137 per tonne (+15.3%). The persistent price premium of EU exports over imports — approximately 84% higher in 2025 — points to the EU occupying a niche in higher-value, branded, or specialised toy sets on the global market.

EU production stagnated as import penetration surged

Domestic EU production of toys and games (PRODCOM 32.40.39.00, the closest mapping) grew only 5.7% over the decade, from EUR 1,860 million to EUR 1,966 million, having peaked at EUR 2,166 million and troughed at EUR 1,611 million. Over the same period, imports surged by 86.2%. As a result, net import reliance remained elevated throughout the period — hovering between 54.8% and 65.1% — ending at 61.5% in 2025. The EU's toy set market expansion was therefore powered almost entirely by external suppliers, with domestic production unable to keep pace with demand growth.

2. The Reconfiguration of Global Sourcing: From China-Centric to More Diversified

China retained its dominance but ceded significant market share

China was by far the largest supplier of toy sets to the EU throughout the decade, accounting for approximately 84% of imports by value in 2015 (EUR 553.4 million). By 2025, its share had fallen to roughly 75% (EUR 916.0 million), even as its absolute value grew by 65.5%. Notably, Chinese imports peaked at EUR 1,306.4 million before declining — likely reflecting a post-pandemic demand correction and competitive pressure from alternative suppliers. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell from 7,128 to 6,021 (−15.5%), confirming a measurable decline in sourcing concentration over the period.

Vietnam emerged as the most significant alternative supplier

The most striking development in EU toy set sourcing was the meteoric rise of Vietnam. From a mere EUR 6.1 million in 2015 (less than 1% of imports), Vietnamese shipments surged to EUR 130.2 million in 2025 — an increase of over 2,000% — capturing roughly 10.6% of the EU import market. This growth is consistent with the broader "China Plus One" strategy adopted by multinational toy manufacturers seeking to diversify production away from China, as well as Vietnam's competitive labour costs and improving trade access (notably the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement, which entered into force in August 2020).

Nearshoring signals emerged from several smaller suppliers

Beyond Vietnam, several other partners exhibited exceptionally high growth rates from low bases, suggesting emerging nearshoring and supply chain diversification:

Bosnia and Herzegovina's extraordinary growth — from negligible volumes to EUR 33.8 million — is particularly noteworthy for a European nearshoring narrative, suggesting that Western Balkans production is increasingly integrated into EU toy supply chains. Indonesia's rise similarly reflects broader Southeast Asian manufacturing expansion.

Brexit dramatically reshaped trade flows with the United Kingdom

The United Kingdom's trajectory as both an import source and an export destination illustrates the disruptive impact of Brexit. As an import partner, UK toy set shipments to the EU collapsed from EUR 51.5 million in 2015 (7.8% of imports) to just EUR 4.3 million in 2025 (−91.6%), having peaked at EUR 103.6 million — likely reflecting pre-Brexit stockpiling. As an export destination, EU exports to the UK were more resilient, rising 17.8% overall (from EUR 49.1 million to EUR 57.9 million) but similarly peaked at EUR 113.9 million before falling back. The UK thus went from being the EU's third-largest toy set supplier to a marginal one, while remaining the EU's top export market — a trade pattern consistent with new customs frictions redirecting UK-origin goods away from the EU single market.

Central and Eastern European members built genuine export specialisation

Within the EU, the specialisation landscape for toy set exports shifted notably toward Central and Eastern Europe. By 2025, Czechia (RSCA: 0.40, RCA: 2.35) and Poland (RSCA: 0.22, RCA: 1.55) had become the most specialised EU exporters, with production shares of 11.3% and 10.3% respectively. These countries also saw the strongest export growth among EU members:

Germany remained the largest EU exporter but grew only modestly, while France, Czechia, and Poland exhibited rapid catch-up — reflecting their roles as production platforms for multinational toy companies targeting both EU and non-EU markets. The EU's import concentration HHI also declined, and export concentration fell from 1,673 to 1,411 (−15.7%), indicating that export activity broadened across more EU members.

3. Price Shocks, Volatility, and Structural Vulnerabilities

A major price shock hit Chinese toy set imports in 2022

The volatility analysis detected a significant price shock on EU imports from China in 2022, with unit prices shifting by 31.3% (abnormality score: 4.4). This event is likely linked to the post-COVID global supply chain disruptions — including elevated container shipping costs, factory closures in China, and energy price spikes — that peaked in 2021–2022. A second price shock was detected on EU exports to Mexico in 2023, with a 35.2% price shift (abnormality: 21.1), potentially reflecting currency effects or compositional changes in the traded product mix.

Newer supply routes exhibit higher volatility than established ones

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import flows reveals that newer, fast-growing suppliers tend to show significantly greater year-to-year instability than China:

China's remarkably low volatility (CV: 0.19) underscores its role as the stable backbone of EU toy set supply. In contrast, Vietnam (0.76) and the United Kingdom (0.83) — the latter reflecting Brexit disruption — show much higher instability. For the EU, this means that while diversification reduces concentration risk, it introduces greater year-to-year supply variability from newer partners whose production bases and logistics networks are still maturing.

Net import reliance remained structurally high, leaving the EU exposed

Despite diversification efforts, the EU's net import reliance for toy sets remained elevated at 61.5% in 2025 (up from 59.3% in 2015, with a peak of 65.1%). Trade intensity — the share of total toy set production that enters international trade — stood at 79.3%, confirming the highly trade-dependent nature of this market. Meanwhile, export propensity (the share of EU production that is exported) remained moderate at 38.4%, indicating that the EU produces primarily for its own internal market rather than as an export platform. These structural indicators suggest that any disruption to Asian supply chains — whether from geopolitical tensions, trade policy changes, or logistics bottlenecks — would have immediate and material consequences for the EU toy market.

Conclusion

The EU toy set market (CN 95030070) expanded substantially between 2015 and 2025, but this growth was overwhelmingly import-driven. Domestic production grew by just 5.7% while imports surged 86.2%, nearly doubling the trade deficit to over EUR 1 billion. China remained the dominant supplier throughout, but its share eroded from approximately 84% to 75%, with Vietnam emerging as a credible alternative at over 10% of the market by 2025. Smaller nearshoring suppliers — notably Bosnia and Herzegovina, Indonesia, and Türkiye — also gained ground from low bases.

While the diversification trend is directionally positive for supply chain resilience, the newer suppliers exhibit markedly higher volatility than China, and the EU's overall net import reliance remained stubbornly above 60%. The 2022 price shock on Chinese imports served as a reminder of the vulnerability inherent in concentrated, long-distance supply chains. Going forward, the interplay between continued sourcing diversification, potential tariff and regulatory developments, and the capacity of European producers to recapture market share will determine whether the EU can reduce its structural dependency on extra-EU toy set imports.