Market evolution: Thermometers and hydrometers (CN 9025) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in goods classified under customs code 9025 from 2015 to 2025. This category encompasses a range of measuring instruments, including thermometers, hydrometers, barometers, and hygrometers. The analysis reveals a decade characterized by robust growth, structural shifts in trade relationships, and a significant improvement in the EU's net trade position. The data indicates a move towards higher-value, specialized production, albeit with emerging vulnerabilities in supply concentration and market volatility.

Robust Export Growth Driven by Value Appreciation

Over the 2015-2025 period, EU trade in CN 9025 products expanded significantly. The Union's external trade performance was marked by a stronger increase in exports compared to imports, leading to a substantial improvement in the trade balance. This growth was not merely volumetric but was heavily influenced by rising unit values.

Exports grew faster than imports, strengthening the trade balance

EU exports of CN 9025 instruments increased from €961 million in 2015 to €1.42 billion in 2025, a rise of 47.7%. Over the same period, imports grew from €859 million to €1.10 billion, an increase of 28.1%. This differential growth led to the trade balance swinging from a surplus of €103 million to a surplus of €320 million, an improvement of over 211%.

Volume growth was modest, indicating a pronounced price-driven dynamic

The quantity (net mass) exported by the EU increased by 23.8% (from 6,305 to 7,805 tonnes), while import quantities remained almost stable (+0.5%). The primary driver of value growth was therefore a significant rise in unit values. Export prices per tonne increased by 19.3%, while import prices surged by 27.4%. This pattern suggests a market shift towards more sophisticated, higher-value-added instruments and/or inflationary pressures across the supply chain.

Evolving Market Structure and Shifting Dependencies

The period witnessed notable changes in the EU's trade geography and production landscape. While the EU's export base remained relatively diversified, import sources became more concentrated, and domestic production showed signs of strategic reorientation.

Import concentration increased, with China solidifying its lead

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value, a measure of supplier concentration, rose from 1,623 to 2,187, indicating a less diversified import base. This was driven by the growing dominance of China, whose exports to the EU grew by 59.6% to €438 million. Other significant growth came from Mexico (+216.4%) and India (+123.9%). Conversely, EU export destinations remained more balanced (HHI rose only from 822 to 874), with the United States, the United Kingdom, and China as the top three partners.

Domestic production shows a shift towards higher value, lower volume

EU production data reveals a strategic pivot. While the physical quantity produced declined by 29.4% (from 73.8 million items to 52.1 million items), the production value surged by 129.7% to reach €5.74 billion. This stark divergence indicates a move up the value chain, focusing on premium, specialized, or technologically advanced instruments rather than competing on volume. Germany remained the production and export powerhouse, accounting for 33.2% of EU production value and 35.8% of exports in 2025.

Increased Autonomy, Yet Exposed to Geopolitical and Volatile Shocks

The EU's trade position strengthened in terms of self-reliance, but the period was also marked by significant volatility in key bilateral relationships and detectable supply shocks, often linked to geopolitical events.

Net import reliance diminished sharply, improving strategic autonomy

A key indicator of trade vulnerability, the net import reliance, improved dramatically. It moved from -23.1% in 2015 to -1.2% in 2025, meaning the EU's export surplus in this sector nearly offset its import needs. This indicates a greatly reduced dependency on external supplies for CN 9025 products.

Trade volatility is high, especially with certain partners

Coefficient of Variation (CV) analysis reveals substantial instability in trade flows with specific partners. For EU imports, trade with Hong Kong was the most volatile (CV 0.73), while for exports, flows to the Russian Federation (CV 0.66) and Tunisia (CV 0.74) showed high instability. This underscores the geopolitical and economic risks affecting specific corridors.

Notable supply shocks were detected in 2018 and 2023

The volatility analysis detected several shock events. A significant price shock occurred in 2018 for exports to the United Kingdom (value share 12%), coinciding with Brexit-related uncertainties. Another cluster of price shocks emerged in 2023 for exports to Morocco and Mexico. Furthermore, exports to the Russian Federation collapsed by 93.5% (from €36.3 M to €2.4 M) between 2015 and 2025, a decline that accelerated after 2022, reflecting the impact of geopolitical sanctions.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in thermometers, hydrometers, and related instruments (CN 9025) evolved into a stronger, more value-oriented market. The bloc successfully leveraged its advanced manufacturing base to boost exports and achieve a near-zero net import reliance, signaling enhanced strategic autonomy in this segment. However, this growth occurred against a backdrop of increased import concentration, particularly from China, and exposure to significant volatility and geopolitical shocks in key trade relationships. The domestic industry's shift towards producing fewer but higher-value items is a clear indicator of its competitive repositioning. Going forward, the stability of this trade will depend on managing dependencies and navigating the ongoing volatility in global supply chains.