Market evolution: Gas and liquid meters (CN 9028) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of EU trade in goods classified under customs code 9028, "Gas, liquid or electricity supply or production meters, including calibrating meters therefor," from 2015 to 2025. The period has been marked by significant shifts in trade flows, market structure, and the EU's position in the global market. By examining key indicators such as trade value, volume, price, partner concentration, and production data, this analysis identifies and explains the principal dynamics shaping the sector over the last decade. The Overview of CN 9028 provides the foundational dataset for this report.

The Reversal of the EU's Trade Balance: From Net Exporter to Net Importer

The most striking development in the EU's trade in meters (CN 9028) is the complete reversal of its trade balance with non-EU countries. The EU transitioned from being a consistent net exporter to a net importer of these goods by the end of the period.

The Erosion of the Export Surplus

In 2015, the EU recorded a trade surplus of approximately €236 million. This surplus generally narrowed over the following years, turning into a deficit of around -€154 million in 2022 before recovering slightly to a deficit of -€23 million in 2025. This represents a shift of -109.9% from the initial positive balance.

The Driving Force: Surging Imports

The reversal was primarily driven by a substantial increase in imports. The total value of EU imports grew by 90.4%, from €573 million in 2015 to €1.09 billion in 2025. This growth was underpinned by a 60.2% increase in the quantity (weight in tonnes) imported. In contrast, while export values rose by 32.0% to €1.07 billion, export volumes actually declined by 15.5%. This indicates that the EU's export growth was entirely price-driven, whereas import growth involved both increased volumes and rising prices.

The Dominant Supplier: China

The surge in imports is overwhelmingly linked to China. Imports from China grew by 146.9% from €214 million to €528 million, making it by far the EU's largest supplier. China's share of EU imports in value terms increased significantly over the decade. Other key suppliers like Tunisia and India also saw substantial growth, but their volumes remained much smaller than China's.

Market Structure: Increasing Concentration and Robust Domestic Production

Behind the aggregate trade figures lie significant shifts in market structure, characterized by growing import concentration and a substantial expansion of EU production capacity.

Rising Concentration in Import Sources

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value increased by 38.2%, indicating that the EU's import market became more concentrated. The concentration was largely driven by the growing dominance of China. Meanwhile, the export market remained relatively less concentrated, with the HHI showing only a modest increase of 4.7%.

Specialization and Production Growth within the EU

EU production of meters grew substantially. The number of items produced increased by 128.4% (from ~48 million to ~109 million pieces), and the production value rose by 80.3% (from €1.76 billion to €3.17 billion). This strong domestic production growth occurred simultaneously with rising imports, suggesting that the EU market expanded to absorb both.

The analysis of revealed comparative advantage shows clear specialization patterns. Smaller EU members like Greece (RSCA: 0.81) and Lithuania (RSCA: 0.76) exhibit strong specialization in meter production/export. In contrast, large economies like Ireland (RSCA: -0.96) and Belgium (RSCA: -0.92) are highly non-specialized, indicating they are primarily net importers.

Divergent Price Trends: High-Value Exports vs. Competitively Priced Imports

The unit price (value per tonne) evolution reveals a key strategic dynamic. EU export prices for the aggregate category rose by 56.3% to an average of €39,044 per tonne in 2025. This was driven by significant price increases in high-value segments, notably electricity meters (CN 902830). In contrast, import prices rose by a more moderate 18.8% to €30,084 per tonne. This price gap suggests the EU tends to export higher-value, more sophisticated or customized meters while importing more standard, competitively priced products.

Volatility, Supply Shocks, and Growing Vulnerability

The period was not stable, with observable volatility in trade flows and events that exposed the EU's increasing vulnerability to external market conditions.

Notable Supply Shocks and Price Volatility

The volatility analysis identifies several periods of high price volatility. A significant price shock is detected in imports from China in 2022 (abnormality score: 44.8, price shift: +28.1%), coinciding with global supply chain disruptions. For exports, a major shock occurred with shipments to Egypt in 2017 (abnormality: 95.3, price shift: +140.5%). Partners like Serbia (import CV: 0.88) and Russia (export CV: 0.74) exhibited very high volatility in trade values over the decade, reflecting political and economic instability.

Declining Strategic Autonomy and Increased Import Reliance

The EU's net import reliance shifted from -6.7% (indicating net export reliance) in 2015 to +1.2% in 2025. This marks a clear move towards dependency on foreign supply. Furthermore, trade intensity (trade as a share of production) rose from 30.2% to 47.5%, indicating the EU market became more globally integrated and thus more exposed to international market fluctuations.

Shifting Geopolitical Trade Patterns

Geopolitical shifts are evident in the partner data. Exports to Russia collapsed by 98.6% to a mere €0.5 million in 2025, a direct consequence of sanctions. In contrast, exports to Ukraine and Switzerland saw dramatic increases of 244.4% and 178.2%, respectively. On the import side, the decline in imports from the United Kingdom by 70.7% post-Brexit is notable, while imports from other partners like Greece and Romania surged, indicating intra-industry trade or supply chain restructuring within Europe.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's market for gas, liquid, and electricity meters underwent a fundamental transformation. The region shifted from a net exporter to a net importer, a change fueled by a massive influx of competitively priced goods from China. Paradoxically, this period also saw a boom in EU domestic production, suggesting strong market growth that absorbed both increased imports and higher output.

The market structure became more concentrated on the import side, while specialization patterns solidified within the EU. The period was punctuated by price shocks and volatility, most notably in Chinese import prices in 2022. Consequently, the EU's strategic position weakened, with rising trade intensity and net import reliance pointing to increased vulnerability to external supply and demand dynamics. The collapse of trade with Russia and the realignment towards other partners underscore how geopolitical forces have redrawn the trade map for this essential equipment.