Market evolution: Telecommunication cables (CN 85444920) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the EU's external trade in telecommunication cables, classified under Combined Nomenclature code 85444920, over the period 2015–2025. The product consists of insulated electric conductors for voltages up to 80V, without connectors, primarily used for telecommunications. The analysis covers import and export flows, production trends, market concentration, and dependency risks, based on official trade statistics. The overarching narrative is one of robust internal demand met by a surge in imports, leading to a significant widening of the trade deficit despite a concurrent strong growth in EU domestic production.

A Surge in Imports Driven by Structural Demand and a Widening Trade Deficit

Over the decade, the EU's import bill for telecommunication cables more than doubled, far outpacing the growth in exports and fundamentally altering the trade balance. This dynamic points to strong, sustained internal demand, likely driven by investments in telecommunications infrastructure, which domestic production alone did not fully satisfy.

Imports grew at twice the rate of exports in value terms

The value of EU imports more than doubled from €241.9 million in 2015 to €490.4 million in 2025, an increase of 102.7%. In contrast, exports grew by 20.0% over the same period, from €197.3 million to €236.8 million. The import volume (in tonnes) rose by 50.7%, indicating that the value increase was also significantly driven by rising unit prices (+34.5%).

China solidified its position as the dominant supplier

The concentration of EU imports intensified, particularly with a massive increase in sourcing from China. China’s share of EU imports in value more than doubled, growing from €102.1 million to €279.4 million (+173.6%). By 2025, China alone accounted for approximately 57% of the total EU import value for this product category.

Top EU Import Partners by Value (EUR million)

The EU trade deficit worsened dramatically

The divergence between import and export growth led to a substantial deterioration in the EU's trade balance. The deficit widened from -€44.6 million in 2015 to -€253.5 million in 2025, a 468.5% increase. Net import reliance, measured as the trade balance relative to total trade, shifted from -19.8% to -8.3%, indicating the growing weight of imports on the overall market structure.

Robust Domestic Production Within a Changing Internal Market Structure

Concurrently with the rise in imports, EU domestic production of these conductors also grew significantly, suggesting the market expanded overall. However, the internal specialization and export performance of EU member states evolved, with production growth concentrated in a few central and eastern European economies.

EU production volumes and values expanded sharply

PRODCOM data indicates that EU production quantity increased by 51.8% from 1.56 billion kg in 2015 to 2.37 billion kg in 2025. The value of production grew even faster, by 91.3%, from €8.6 billion to €16.5 billion. This indicates strong growth in the overall EU market for this product, driven by both internal consumption and exports.

Specialisation in production was concentrated in Central and Eastern Europe

The EU exhibited marked internal differences in export specialisation for this product. In 2025, the most specialised exporters (based on Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) were Slovakia, Hungary, Portugal, and Ireland, while large economies like Germany had a more balanced profile.

Specialisation in Exports of CN 85444920 (2025)

This pattern suggests a regional supply chain, where central and eastern European countries have developed comparative advantages in producing for export.

Major exporting member states saw divergent fortunes

While Germany increased its exports by 104.8% to become the EU's largest exporter, two other traditional hubs, the Netherlands and Belgium, saw stagnation or decline. Belgium's exports, in particular, contracted by 57.5%. Ireland emerged as a major growth story, increasing its exports by 317%. This shift reflects a redistribution of export activity within the EU.

Rising Market Concentration and Emerging Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

The trade data reveals a concerning trend towards higher concentration on the import side, which increases dependency on a small number of partners. While volatility in key export routes is relatively low, several significant price shocks have been recorded.

Import sources became highly concentrated, mirrored by geoeconomic risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration more than doubled for imports from 2,203 in 2015 to 3,624 in 2025. A score above 2,500 is generally considered highly concentrated. This was almost entirely driven by China's surging share. In contrast, the export market remained much more fragmented (HHI of 622 in 2025). This asymmetry highlights a critical vulnerability: a disruption to supplies from China could have significant impacts on the EU market.

HHI Concentration Index (0 = perfect competition, 10,000 = monopoly)

Volatility is moderate for major pathways, but severe shocks occurred for smaller partners

Trade flows with major partners like China, the UK, and Türkyie exhibited moderate volatility (Coefficient of Variation between 0.16-0.27 for imports). However, the system detected significant price shock events, most notably a massive price abnormality in exports to Saudi Arabia in 2022 (abnormality score 321.2) and to the United States in 2020. Such events, while not disrupting core flows, indicate segment-specific instability.

Export propensity and trade intensity tell a story of internal focus

The EU's export propensity fell from 30.7% to 27.6% between 2015 and 2025. This indicates that an increasing share of the EU's growing domestic production is being consumed internally rather than exported, aligning with the strong import demand narrative. The overall trade intensity (imports+exports as a share of production) remained stable at around 40%, confirming a consistently high level of cross-border integration for this product.

Conclusion

From 2015 to 2025, the EU market for telecommunication cables (CN 85444920) expanded considerably, characterized by vigorous growth in both imports and domestic production. The defining trend was an outsized surge in imports from China, which led to a doubling of the import value and a severe widening of the trade deficit to over €250 million. This dynamic, against a backdrop of growing EU production, suggests that import growth was meeting incremental demand for infrastructure roll-out.

Strategically, this has resulted in a significant increase in import dependency concentration, posing a latent supply chain risk. Internally, the production landscape evolved, with Central and Eastern European economies becoming more specialised exporters. While trade with major partners remained stable, periodic severe price shocks in smaller trade flows underscore the market's susceptibility to segment-specific volatility. Overall, the data paints a picture of a productive but increasingly import-dependent EU sector, whose strategic vulnerability has heightened over the past decade.