Market evolution: Strawberries (CN 081010) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The trade in fresh strawberries (CN 081010) for the European Union has undergone a notable transformation over the decade from 2015 to 2025. Characterized by a shift from volume-driven growth to a landscape dominated by rising unit values, the EU has solidified its position as a net exporter. This report examines the key dynamics, revealing a market where increased earnings, evolving trade partnerships, and significant supply chain volatility have redefined trade patterns. The overall trade data provides the foundation for this analysis.

1. A Market Driven by Price, Not Volume

A defining trend of the past decade is the stark divergence between trade value and trade quantity for EU strawberry trade with non-EU countries. Both exports and imports have seen significant value increases coupled with volume contractions, pointing to a fundamental rise in unit values.

EU exports became significantly more valuable despite declining in volume

The EU's export performance has been primarily a story of value appreciation. While export volume decreased by 22.2% over the period, the total export value increased by 38.6% to over €463 million in 2025. This is explained by a dramatic 78.1% surge in the average export price, from €2,631 per tonne in 2015 to €4,686 in 2025. This suggests that EU producers, particularly from specialized member states, have successfully focused on higher-value segments of the market.

The EU's internal exporters consolidated around key producers

The concentration of export value among EU member states intensified. Spain and the Netherlands dramatically increased their share, with Spain's export value rising from €117 million to €193 million (+65.3%) and the Netherlands' nearly doubling from €88 million to €169 million (+91.8%). In contrast, some traditional exporters like Germany and Belgium saw their relative positions diminish, indicating a possible shift in production and trading efficiency. The top reporters data highlights this consolidation.

Import patterns mirrored the export trend, with price as the primary growth driver

EU imports followed a similar value-over-volume trajectory. Import value grew by 16.8% while volume fell by 17.9%, driven by a 42.4% increase in the average import price (from €2,960 to €4,214 per tonne). This indicates that even the external supply feeding the EU market has become more expensive, likely due to a combination of global supply pressures and a shift towards more premium imported varieties.

2. Shifting Geographies of Supply and Demand

The trade landscape saw significant geographical diversification and rebalancing, with notable changes in both the EU's source markets and its key export destinations outside the bloc.

Import sources diversified away from traditional suppliers

While Morocco remained the largest non-EU supplier, its share declined slightly (value change: -2.8%). The most dramatic shifts were the rapid rise of Albania, which grew from a negligible €8,389 to over €4 million (a 48,029% increase), and Egypt, which solidified its position as the second-largest supplier with a 49.7% value increase. This partner diversification reduced the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value from 3,901 to 3,543, indicating a modest decrease in concentration.

Export growth targeted geographically proximate and neighbouring markets

The United Kingdom solidified its role as the EU's paramount export market, with its value increasing by 33.8% to €273 million, accounting for the majority of export value. Switzerland and Norway also demonstrated strong, stable growth. Meanwhile, new or rapidly expanding markets emerged closer to the EU's eastern borders, with exports to Serbia (+544%) and Ukraine (+2,670%) growing exponentially. This suggests a strategic focus on reliable regional markets.

The specialisation of EU member states is pronounced

Analysis of Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) for 2025 shows extreme specialisation within the EU. Greece and Spain are highly specialised in strawberry exports (RSCA of 0.91 and 0.78, respectively), indicating a strong competitive advantage. In stark contrast, countries like Ireland, Finland, and Czechia are deeply specialised as importers (RSCA near -1.0), reflecting a complete lack of export competitiveness. This specialisation structure underpins the regional flow of strawberries within the EU.

3. Volatility, Shocks, and Supply Chain Resilience

The period was marked by significant fluctuations in trade flows with certain partners, culminating in at least one major shock event that underscores the geopolitical fragility of agri-food supply chains.

Trade flows with several partners exhibited high volatility

The coefficient of variation (CV) for trade values reveals persistent instability with some partners. On the import side, flows with the United States (CV: 1.67) and Ukraine (CV: 0.92) were highly volatile. For exports, trade with Moldova (CV: 1.95) and Morocco (CV: 1.60) was particularly erratic, while even core partners like the United Kingdom (CV: 0.16) showed relative stability. This volatility highlights the uneven reliability of different supply and demand relationships.

A major price shock hit exports to Belarus in 2022

The data identifies a significant supply shock event in 2022 concerning exports to Belarus. This shock was characterized by extreme price abnormality (score of 7.9) and a 104.4% price shift. While Belarus's share of total EU exports was 4.0%, this event demonstrates how geopolitical tensions (likely related to sanctions and trade disruptions following the invasion of Ukraine) can immediately and severely distort trade patterns with certain partners.

Export concentration remained relatively stable despite changes

Despite the geographical shifts in export markets, the overall concentration of EU exports, as measured by the HHI by value, decreased only marginally from 4,142 to 3,937 (-5.0%). This indicates that while the EU successfully diversified into new markets like Serbia and Ukraine, the dominant position of the United Kingdom prevented a more dramatic de-concentration. The market structure remained fairly consolidated.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's fresh strawberry trade evolved into a higher-value, more strategic business. The primary narrative is the successful capitalization on rising unit prices, which more than compensated for falling volumes and propelled a growing trade surplus. Geographically, the EU diversified its imports beyond Morocco and Egypt while strengthening its export dominance in key neighbouring markets, especially the UK. Internally, production and export capacity consolidated around specialised members like Spain and Greece. However, the market is not without its vulnerabilities, as evidenced by high volatility with several partners and a severe price shock linked to geopolitical instability. Future resilience will depend on managing these price sensitivities and maintaining diversified yet stable trade relationships.