Market evolution: Kiwifruit (CN 081050) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade performance of the European Union in fresh kiwifruit (customs code 081050) between 2015 and 2025. Over this period, the EU market for this tropical fruit has undergone significant transformation, characterised by a substantial increase in import value and a widening trade deficit. The analysis is based on yearly trade data and highlights key shifts in trade volumes, values, partnerships, and market structure.

1. Surging Import Dependency and Widening Trade Gap

The period under review is defined by a dramatic expansion of the EU's kiwifruit import bill, which far outpaced the growth in export revenues. This has fundamentally altered the trade balance, turning a modest deficit into a substantial one.

Import Value Growth Significantly Outpaces Export Growth

EU imports of fresh kiwifruit surged from €271.6 million in 2015 to €851.9 million in 2025, marking a 213.7% increase over the period. In contrast, export values grew by 77.8%, rising from €246.0 million to €437.6 million. This differential growth indicates a growing domestic consumption that is increasingly met by foreign supply.

Source: General Overview

Trade Volume Trends Tell a Different Story

While the value of imports grew sharply, the physical quantity imported increased more moderately, from 223,120 tonnes to 294,779 tonnes (+32.1%). The quantity exported actually decreased slightly from 222,049 tonnes to 205,338 tonnes (-7.5%). This divergence points to significant price inflation, with the unit value (price per tonne) for imports rising by 137.4% and for exports by 92.3% over the decade.

The Trade Deficit Has Expanded Dramatically

As a direct result of the trends above, the EU's trade balance for kiwifruit deteriorated severely. The deficit widened from -€25.5 million in 2015 to -€414.4 million in 2025. This represents a more than fifteenfold increase in the net outflow of payments for kiwifruit, underscoring the bloc's increased reliance on external suppliers.

2. Shifting Trade Partnerships and Market Concentration

The nature of the EU's kiwifruit trade relationships has evolved, with import sources becoming more concentrated while export destinations have diversified.

New Zealand Consolidates Its Dominance as the Primary Supplier

New Zealand has solidified its position as the undisputed leader in supplying kiwifruit to the EU. Its exports to the bloc grew from €196.3 million in 2015 to €728.9 million in 2025, accounting for 85.6% of total EU kiwifruit imports by value in 2025. Chile remains the second-largest supplier but with a much smaller share (€113.3 million in 2025). The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value increased from 5,918 to 7,497, confirming this trend towards greater reliance on fewer key partners, principally New Zealand.

Source: Top partners by value

EU Export Destinations Have Become More Diversified

In contrast to the import side, the EU has successfully diversified its export markets. While the United States and the United Kingdom remain the top two destinations, there has been strong growth in exports to Brazil (+243.4%), Ukraine (+307.3%), and Canada (+181.9%). The HHI for export concentration by value, while increasing from 633 to 964, remains well below the threshold for high concentration, indicating a balanced and competitive export portfolio.

Internal EU Specialisation is Highly Uneven

Within the EU, specialisation in kiwifruit trade is starkly uneven. Greece, Belgium, and Italy are the most specialised exporters (high RCA scores), suggesting they have a strong competitive advantage. Conversely, countries like Sweden, Romania, and Estonia have minimal involvement in kiwifruit exports. This highlights a production-centric bloc within the EU (led by Italy) that drives external trade flows.

3. Price Trends, Volatility, and External Shocks

The kiwifruit market experienced significant price inflation and was subject to specific volatility patterns and external shocks, which impacted trade flows.

Price Inflation Has Been the Primary Driver of Import Value Growth

The dramatic increase in the value of kiwifruit imports was primarily fuelled by price increases rather than volume growth. The average import price per tonne rose from €1,217 in 2015 to €2,890 in 2025. Export prices followed a similar upward trajectory, increasing from €1,108 to €2,131 per tonne. This general inflationary trend reflects global supply chain pressures and potentially shifts in product quality or variety.

Volatility Differs Sharply Between Import and Export Partners

Trade with major partners like New Zealand and Chile is relatively stable, with coefficient of variation (CV) values for import value around 0.18. In contrast, trade with smaller partners such as Türkiye, the United Kingdom (post-Brexit), and the United States is much more volatile (CV > 1.0). On the export side, the EU's trade with its top partners (US, UK, Canada) is characterised by low volatility (CV < 0.25), indicating established and reliable market relationships. Detailed volatility metrics.

The Market Experienced Notable Price and Supply Shocks

The data reveals specific shock events. In 2017, exports to Morocco and Saudi Arabia experienced abnormal price spikes (+31.1% and +31.9% respectively). More dramatically, in 2022, exports to Australia collapsed by -99.8%, likely due to a severe supply shock. These events demonstrate the market's sensitivity to bilateral disruptions, even if the overall export portfolio remains stable.

Conclusion

Over the 2015-2025 period, the EU's fresh kiwifruit market has been transformed. The most defining trend is a massive growth in import dependency, led overwhelmingly by New Zealand, which has driven a sharp deterioration in the trade balance. This import growth was largely price-driven rather than volume-driven. Internally, the EU exhibits a highly specialised production and export structure concentrated in Mediterranean member states. Despite growing import concentration, the EU's export markets have remained diversified and stable, though they are susceptible to occasional bilateral shocks. The overall picture is of a bloc with a strong exporting core that is increasingly reliant on a single major external supplier for its consumption needs.