Market evolution: Fresh Vaccinium berries (CN 081040) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade evolution of fresh fruits of the genus Vaccinium (customs code 081040) by the European Union with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The product category includes cranberries, bilberries, and related berries. The analysis reveals a period of transformative growth for the EU market, characterized by a dramatic surge in imports, a significant shift in trade balance, and evolving supply chain dynamics. The data indicates a maturing market facing increasing global competition and shifting consumer demand patterns.

1. The Import Boom and Widening Trade Deficit

The period was defined by an extraordinary expansion in EU imports of fresh Vaccinium berries, which vastly outpaced the growth in exports. This transformed the EU from a near-balanced trader into a major net importer.

Explosive Growth in Import Volumes and Values

EU imports of fresh Vaccinium berries experienced exceptional growth between 2015 and 2025. The import value increased by 609.1%, rising from €180.4 million to €1,279.0 million. This was driven by a 658.1% increase in imported quantity, from 28,540 tonnes to 216,349 tonnes. While export values also grew by 110.6%, reaching €415.5 million, and export quantities by 81.5% to 51,708 tonnes, this growth was dwarfed by the import surge.

Source: General Overview

A Structural Shift in the Trade Balance

The asymmetrical growth directly impacted the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the EU had a small positive trade balance of €16.9 million. By 2025, this had flipped to a substantial deficit of -€863.5 million. This shift of over -5,200% underscores the EU's transition from a self-sufficient or minor net exporter to a major net importer, indicating rapidly growing domestic consumption outpacing local production.

Price Divergence Reflects Market Dynamics

The average import price per tonne decreased slightly over the period (-6.5%), settling at €5,912 in 2025. In contrast, the average export price increased by 16.0% to €8,029 per tonne. This divergence suggests that increased import volumes, likely from low-cost producers, exerted downward pressure on import prices, while EU exporters may have focused on higher-value or niche markets, allowing them to command higher average prices.

2. Shifting Global Partnerships and Market Concentration

The source of the EU's imports and the destination of its exports underwent significant restructuring, reflecting new production centers and changing trade flows.

The Rise of Southern Hemisphere and New Suppliers

The top import partners in 2025 reveal a shift towards suppliers in the Southern Hemisphere and emerging European producers.

Source: Top Partners by Value

Peru became the dominant supplier by a wide margin, likely reflecting its advanced blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum) cultivation. Morocco also saw massive growth. The emergence of Serbia as a significant supplier (+5,434%) points to the development of competitive berry production within Europe's immediate neighborhood.

Export Markets Remain More Stable but Show Selective Growth

The United Kingdom and Switzerland remained the EU's top export markets. However, growth was particularly strong for Switzerland (+273%) and the Russian Federation (+1,908%), albeit from a smaller base. This indicates that EU exporters successfully expanded sales into wealthy neighboring markets and some specific third countries.

Diverging Concentration in Import and Export Markets

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), a measure of market concentration, moved in opposite directions for imports and exports. For imports, the HHI increased by 32.3% from 2,444 to 3,232, indicating rising concentration and greater reliance on a few key suppliers, primarily Peru. For exports, the HHI fell by 55.3% from 4,849 to 2,167, showing a significant diversification of export destinations away from a previously more concentrated pattern.

Source: Concentration HHI

3. Product Specialisation and Segment Evolution

The CN code 081040 is a bundle of distinct berry species. The trade data reveals a clear specialization in both the product mix for imports and exports, with cranberries and highbush blueberries driving the import boom.

Imports Dominated by High-Value Blueberries and Cranberries

The product sub-segments show that the growth in imports was overwhelmingly led by 08104050: Fresh fruit of species Vaccinium macrocarpum and Vaccinium corymbosum (which includes cranberries and highbush blueberries). Its quantity surged from 19,036 tonnes in 2015 to 203,024 tonnes in 2025, and its value grew from €124.4 million to €1,205.6 million. This sub-category accounted for 93.7% of the total import value in 2025. In contrast, imports of bilberries (08104030) and other Vaccinium berries (08104090) grew at a much slower pace.

Source: Product Segment Breakdown

Export Composition Reflects European Production Strengths

EU exports show a more balanced but different composition. Bilberries (Vaccinium myrtillus, 08104030) and highbush blueberries/cranberries (08104050) were the largest categories by value. However, the growth rate was highest for the category 08104090 (other Vaccinium species), which saw its value increase by 325.8% to €37.8 million. This suggests EU producers may be finding niches in exporting less common berry varieties.

EU Member States as Both Major Importers and Re-exporters

The data on EU member states as reporters highlights the role of logistics hubs. The Netherlands and Spain were the largest importers by value, with imports of €860.5 million and €302.5 million respectively in 2025. Notably, these countries were also major exporters, with the Netherlands exporting €170.1 million and Spain €110.5 million. This pattern strongly suggests that a significant portion of imports are re-exported after processing or redistribution within the EU, with these countries acting as key gateways.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU market for fresh Vaccinium berries underwent a fundamental transformation. The defining feature has been the explosive growth of imports, driven primarily by highbush blueberries and cranberries from Peru, Morocco, and other new global suppliers. This surge has turned the EU into a major net importer with a trade deficit exceeding €860 million by 2025. Simultaneously, the EU's export profile diversified, though it grew at a more modest pace, focusing on high-value bilberries and leveraging its position as a re-export hub through the Netherlands and Spain. The market is now characterized by increased import concentration, shifting global partnerships, and a clear product segmentation where consumer demand for specific varieties like highbush blueberries has reshaped entire trade flows.