Market evolution: Stemmed tobacco (CN 240120) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of stemmed or stripped unmanufactured tobacco (CN 240120) for the European Union over the period 2015–2025. The EU remains a major global hub for this commodity — both as a large importer of raw leaf for its domestic manufacturing industry and, increasingly, as a re-exporter of processed tobacco. Over the decade, the EU trade flows reveal a market shaped by rising unit values, a structural deficit that has widened, and a notable diversification of supplier and buyer geographies. The analysis draws on the EU's aggregate bilateral trade data with non-EU countries, broken down by partner, EU Member State reporter, and product sub-segment.

1. A Widening Deficit Driven by Rising Prices Rather Than Volume Growth

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade deficit in stemmed tobacco grew from €1.49 billion to €1.73 billion, a 15.7% deterioration in nominal terms. Crucially, this expansion was not primarily fuelled by surging import volumes — which rose only 7.7% (from 387,278 t to 416,906 t) — but by a pronounced increase in unit values.

1.1 Import values grew far faster than import quantities

EU imports rose 26.5% in value terms (from €2.23 billion to €2.82 billion) while quantities advanced by just 7.7%. The gap is explained by a 17.5% increase in the average import price, from €5,763/t in 2015 to €6,771/t in 2025. The price increase accelerated notably from 2020 onwards, coinciding with supply-chain disruptions and tightening global leaf markets.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.2 Export values expanded even more sharply, albeit from a smaller base

EU exports of stemmed tobacco increased 48.4% in value (from €737 million to €1.09 billion), while volumes grew only 4.7% (from 114,278 t to 119,668 t). The average export price surged 41.7%, from €6,449/t to €9,140/t — substantially higher than the corresponding import price. This suggests that the EU is increasingly exporting higher-value-added or more selectively processed tobacco leaf, while importing in bulk for domestic consumption.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.3 The structural import reliance persists but is easing

The EU's net import reliance stood at 87.8% in 2025, down from 93.8% in 2015 (and a peak of 96.7% in an intermediate year). This modest decline partly reflects a significant expansion of EU domestic production — which, according to PRODCOM data, grew 125% in quantity (from 19,069 t to 42,932 t) and 200% in value (from €76 million to €229 million) over the decade. Nonetheless, the EU remains overwhelmingly dependent on non-EU suppliers for its stemmed-tobacco needs.

2. Geographical Diversification of Trade Partners

A key structural shift over the period has been the rebalancing of the EU's supplier base and, to a lesser extent, of its export destinations.

2.1 Sub-Saharan Africa's rising share of EU imports

While Brazil remained the single largest supplier throughout the decade (growing from €556 million to €620 million, +11.4%), several African origins grew much faster:

Source: Top partners — imports

India's near-doubling of exports to the EU and the robust growth from Malawi and Mozambique illustrate the increasing importance of African and South Asian leaf in the EU supply chain. Conversely, the United States — long a key supplier — saw a 28.3% decline, possibly reflecting shifts in US domestic demand or competitiveness changes. The import-side HHI fell 12.2% (from 1,192 to 1,047), confirming a moderate diversification of the supplier base.

2.2 Russia and Türkiye become the EU's leading export markets

On the export side, the most striking evolution has been the rapid growth of shipments to Russia (+87.7%, from €110 million to €206 million) and especially Türkiye (+148.7%, from €69 million to €171 million). Taiwan also emerged as a significant destination, with exports surging 482% from €9 million to €52 million. By contrast, exports to Switzerland (−33.9%) and Japan (−31.0%) declined.

Source: Top partners — exports

The export-side HHI rose 27.1% (from 705 to 897), indicating a mild concentration of EU exports toward fewer destination markets — driven mainly by the growing dominance of Russia and Türkiye.

2.3 Belgium consolidates its role as the EU's tobacco gateway

Among EU Member State reporters, Belgium stands out as the most dynamic player. Belgian imports grew 66.2% (from €496 million to €824 million), and Belgian exports more than doubled (+101%, from €234 million to €469 million). Belgium now accounts for the largest share of both EU imports and exports of stemmed tobacco, reflecting its position as a major processing and transhipment hub.

Source: Top reporters

Greece and Poland also displayed extraordinary growth in both directions, consistent with the expansion of cigarette manufacturing capacity in Central and Southeastern Europe. The Netherlands, by contrast, saw a 45.4% decline in imports — a notable shift for a country historically significant in tobacco logistics.

3. Price Shocks, Volatility Patterns, and Product-Mix Shifts

The decade was not uniform: distinct episodes of volatility and price shocks punctuated the underlying trend of rising values.

3.1 The EU's supply base is relatively stable, but some exporters show high volatility

The coefficient of variation of export values to the EU is lowest for Brazil (CV 0.089) and Ukraine (CV 0.118), confirming these as dependable suppliers. By contrast, Bangladesh (CV 0.386) and the Philippines (CV 0.345) show much higher variability, suggesting intermittent or opportunistic supply flows. On the export side, Japan stands out with a CV of 0.713, reflecting highly erratic EU shipments — likely related to Japanese procurement cycles or quality specifications.

3.2 Specific price shocks affected key bilateral flows in 2022–2023

Three notable supply-shock events were detected:

Source: Top shock events

The Japan shock in 2023 is particularly striking: a 64.6% price increase with a 6.9σ abnormality, suggesting a dramatic shift in the type or quality of tobacco being shipped. Given Japan's strict regulatory environment and the rise of reduced-risk products, this could reflect a structural change in Japanese procurement patterns. The US price shock in 2022, meanwhile, aligns with the broader inflationary environment and tightening supply of US-grown leaf.

3.3 Flue-cured tobacco dominates the product mix, with prices rising sharply

The product-segment breakdown reveals that flue-cured tobacco (CN 24012085) accounts for the lion's share of both imports and exports:

Source: Product segment breakdown

Flue-cured and light air-cured together account for nearly 97% of import volumes. Notably, the average import price of flue-cured tobacco rose 18.2% over the decade (from €5,644/t to €6,668/t), while dark air-cured and the "other" category command significantly higher unit prices (€21,002/t and €18,738/t respectively), reflecting their niche status. Sun-cured oriental imports surged in volume in 2025 (from around 500–900 t in prior years to 2,846 t), suggesting a possible one-off procurement or growing demand for oriental blends.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's stemmed-tobacco trade has been characterised by three overarching dynamics: a price-driven widening of the trade deficit, a meaningful diversification of the supplier base (particularly toward Sub-Saharan Africa and India), and a growing role for the EU as a re-exporter of higher-value processed leaf. The EU's persistent import reliance (88% in 2025) underscores the continued strategic importance of maintaining stable supply relationships with producing countries, while the expansion of domestic production — though still modest in absolute terms — signals a gradual move toward greater self-sufficiency. The volatility analysis highlights the relative stability of Brazilian supply and the emerging risk associated with some African and Asian origins, while the pronounced price shocks in 2022–2023 for key bilateral flows remind us that global tobacco markets remain sensitive to macroeconomic, regulatory, and climatic disruptions.