Market evolution: Raw tobacco (CN 240110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's trade in raw, unstemmed or unstripped tobacco (customs code 240110) between 2015 and 2025. The period was marked by a fundamental shift in market dynamics: a sustained decline in traded volumes coupled with a sharp rise in unit prices. Despite these countervailing trends, the overall trade value increased modestly, and the EU's structural trade deficit in this commodity widened. The analysis is based on annual trade data and explores the key drivers behind these changes, including evolving supplier relationships, price volatility, and the changing composition of traded tobacco types. A detailed overview of the product and its data can be found here.

A Decade of Divergence: Soaring Prices Offset Falling Volumes

The most striking feature of the EU's raw tobacco trade between 2015 and 2025 is the inverse relationship between quantity and price. While the physical volume of trade declined significantly, the average price per tonne surged, leading to a moderate increase in total value.

Import Volumes Shrink While Import Value Rises

EU imports of raw tobacco fell by 21.5% in volume, from 59,876 tonnes in 2015 to 47,023 tonnes in 2025. This decline was not linear but represented a long-term contraction. Conversely, the average import price rose by 44.0%, from EUR 5,191 per tonne to EUR 7,473 per tonne. The net effect was a 13.1% increase in the total value of imports, which grew from EUR 310.8 million to EUR 351.4 million. This indicates that the EU is paying more for less tobacco. The full import trade data is available here.

Export Trends Mirror Imports, Amplifying the Deficit

EU exports followed a similar pattern but with more extreme movements. Export volumes plummeted by 40.3%, from 41,576 tonnes to 24,823 tonnes. This dramatic drop was, however, offset by a staggering 90.7% increase in export prices, which reached EUR 9,954 per tonne in 2025. Consequently, the total value of exports grew by 13.8% to EUR 247.1 million. Despite this value growth, the EU's trade deficit in raw tobacco widened from EUR 93.8 million in 2015 to EUR 104.3 million in 2025, a deterioration of 11.3%. This confirms the EU's role as a persistent net importer of this raw material.

Shifting Geographies and Growing Supplier Concentration

The decade saw a notable restructuring of the EU's raw tobacco sourcing, with a higher degree of import concentration and distinct roles for key EU member states as conduits for this trade.

North Macedonia's Dominant Rise and the Evolving Supplier Base

The EU's import landscape became increasingly dominated by a single partner: North Macedonia. Its share of import value surged by 77.6%, from EUR 69.3 million to EUR 123.0 million, making it the undisputed top supplier by 2025. Türkiye remained a major partner but saw its value decline by 12.8%. More volatile suppliers like Serbia (+370.0%) and Lebanon also grew in importance, while imports from Indonesia fell sharply (-39.2%). This consolidation is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value, which rose from 1,815 to 2,029, indicating a more concentrated supplier base. The detailed partner breakdown can be explored here.

EU Member States as Specialized Hubs: Belgium and Greece Lead

Within the EU, trade was channelled through a few specialized member states. In 2025, Greece and Belgium exhibited the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) indices for this product, at 0.95 and 0.61 respectively, highlighting their strong export specialization. Belgium was the largest single exporter by value, shipping EUR 115.8 million of raw tobacco outside the EU, while also being a top importer (EUR 115.2 million). This dual role suggests Belgium functions as a major processing and re-export hub. Germany, once a significant importer, saw its role collapse by 68.9%. You can view the EU's internal specialisation profile here.

Volatility, Price Shocks, and the Dominance of Oriental-Type Tobacco

The market was not only characterized by long-term trends but also by significant price volatility and specific supply shocks, all occurring within a market increasingly focused on one main tobacco type.

High Volatility Partners and Detected Price Shocks

Several key trade relationships showed high volatility, measured by the coefficient of variation (CV). Imports from the United Kingdom (CV 0.89), Lebanon (0.43), and Serbia (0.36) were particularly unstable. On the export side, trade with North Macedonia (CV 0.89) and Ukraine (0.59) was highly erratic. The volatility analysis also flagged concrete shock events. The most notable was a major price shock in imports from India in 2022, where the average price spiked by 23.1% with an abnormality score of 10.3. A supply shock occurred with the United Kingdom in 2025, where imports effectively ceased. A significant price shock was also detected for Serbian imports in 2023, with a 63.0% price increase. These events underscore the fragility of certain supply chains. Detailed shock data is available here.

Product Segmentation: Sun-Cured Oriental Tobacco Defines the Market

A breakdown by tobacco type reveals that the market is overwhelmingly dominated by a single segment: Sun-cured oriental type tobacco (CN 24011060). In 2025, this type accounted for 60.8% of total import volume (28,623 tonnes) and 71.8% of total import value (EUR 252.3 million). Its import price (EUR 8,816/tonne) was the second highest, behind only the minor "other" category. The second largest segment, Flue-cured tobacco (24011085), had a volume share of 15.9% but was significantly cheaper. The dominance of oriental tobacco is even more pronounced in exports, where it constituted 66.5% of exported volume and 69.2% of value in 2025. This product segmentation data can be compared here.

EU Imports by Tobacco Type (2025)

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's raw tobacco market underwent a fundamental transformation. It transitioned from a volume-driven to a price-driven market, with soaring unit prices compensating for declining physical trade flows and maintaining a modest growth in overall value. This price increase, however, did not prevent a widening of the EU's trade deficit. Geographically, trade became more concentrated, with North Macedonia solidifying its position as the primary supplier and EU hubs like Belgium and Greece specializing in handling this trade. The market was also prone to significant volatility and specific supply and price shocks, most notably from India and Serbia. Structurally, the product landscape is overwhelmingly dominated by sun-cured oriental tobacco, making the entire market segment highly dependent on the dynamics of this single type. The long-term implications of these trends—higher import bills, concentrated supply chains, and a narrowing product base—present both economic and strategic considerations for the EU's tobacco processing industry.