Market evolution: Steel structures (CN 73089098) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in steel structures and parts of structures not elsewhere specified (Combined Nomenclature code 73089098) over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers a broad residual group of fabricated iron and steel structural components — excluding bridges, towers, lattice masts, doors/windows, and scaffolding equipment — and is closely tied to construction, energy infrastructure, and heavy engineering activity. Over the decade under review, the EU's trade in this product has undergone a profound transformation: while exports grew solidly, imports surged at an extraordinary pace, fundamentally altering the bloc's trade balance. The following sections unpack the principal dynamics that shaped this evolution, examining the import surge, the reorientation of export markets, and the deeper structural shifts in production, specialisation, and trade intensity.

1. The Extraordinary Import Surge and the Diversification of Supplier Origins

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the dramatic expansion of EU imports of steel structures. From a baseline of just €849 million in 2015, imports climbed to €3.71 billion by 2025 — a cumulative increase of 337%. Over the same period, import volumes quadrupled from 381,519 tonnes to 1,612,557 tonnes (+323%), while unit import prices remained remarkably stable, rising only 3.3% from €2,225 to €2,299 per tonne. This price stability alongside surging volumes signals that the EU has been drawing on a growing pool of lower-cost external suppliers rather than simply absorbing price-driven inflation.

1.1 China's Dominance in Import Growth

No single supplier contributed more to this import wave than China. EU imports of steel structures from China soared from €313 million in 2015 to €1.57 billion in 2025 — a near-fivefold increase of 400%. By 2025, China accounted for the single largest share of extra-EU imports by value, effectively becoming the EU's dominant external supplier of fabricated steel structures. This trajectory reflects China's massive steel overcapacity, its competitive pricing, and the increasing sophistication of its fabricated-steel export sector. It also underscores the broader trade tensions between the EU and China in the steel value chain, which have been a recurring theme in EU trade defence policy.

1.2 The Rapid Rise of Türkiye and Emerging Suppliers

Behind China, two other suppliers saw particularly explosive growth:

Türkiye's imports grew by nearly 890%, rising from €55 million to €548 million. Türkiye has long been a competitive steel producer and fabricator, and its geographic proximity to the EU — combined with a customs union arrangement — gave it a structural advantage. Vietnam's growth from €8 million to €139 million (a staggering 1,604%) is notable as an indicator of supply chain diversification towards Southeast Asia, although from a much smaller base. Vietnam's import volumes, however, were also the most volatile among the top partners, with a coefficient of variation of 1.10, suggesting an inconsistent and potentially opportunistic trade flow.

The United Kingdom, which became an extra-EU partner following Brexit at the end of the transition period in January 2021, saw its recorded imports into the EU rise from €93 million to €498 million. Part of this increase reflects a statistical reclassification: trade that was previously intra-EU and thus excluded from these figures became extra-EU trade. Nevertheless, the magnitude of the increase suggests that the UK also genuinely expanded its exports of steel structures to the EU, perhaps driven by the depreciation of sterling and the competitive pricing of UK fabricators.

1.3 Growing Import Concentration

Despite the geographical broadening of suppliers to include Vietnam, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and others, the import concentration index (HHI) actually increased from 1,893 to 2,278 by value (+20.4%). By volume, concentration rose even more sharply from 2,173 to 3,327 (+53.1%). This paradox — new suppliers entering but concentration rising — is explained by the overwhelming weight of China's growth, which more than offset the diversification gains from smaller entrants. In practical terms, the EU's import base for steel structures has become more dependent on fewer large suppliers, particularly China.

1.4 Which EU Member States Absorbed the Import Surge?

The import surge was not absorbed uniformly across the EU. Germany remained the largest single importer, growing from €249 million to €541 million, but the fastest growth occurred in southern and peripheral Member States:

Spain's import growth of nearly 977% stands out, possibly linked to the country's renewable energy construction boom (wind farms, solar installations requiring steel structures) and infrastructure modernisation. Italy and Ireland also saw very rapid growth. This geographical shift suggests that import penetration is no longer confined to the traditional industrial heartlands of northern Europe but has spread to markets where construction demand has been strong and domestic fabrication capacity may be less sufficient.

2. Export Reorientation: From Russia to the Atlantic and the High Seas

While the import story is one of rapid growth and cost-driven sourcing, the export side tells a different but equally compelling story. EU exports of steel structures grew from €3.62 billion to €5.36 billion (+48.2%) over the decade, with volumes rising more modestly (+12.0%) and unit prices increasing significantly (+32.4%, from €2,996 to €3,966 per tonne). The combination of moderate volume growth and strong price appreciation suggests that EU exporters have shifted towards higher-value, more specialised structural products rather than competing on volume with lower-cost producers.

2.1 The Collapse of Exports to Russia

Perhaps the most dramatic single-country shift was the near-total collapse of EU exports to Russia. From €119 million in 2015, exports to the Russian Federation fell to just €1.4 million by 2025 — a decline of 98.8%. This is a direct consequence of the EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which progressively restricted trade in steel and steel-intensive products. The Russian market, once a meaningful destination for EU fabricators, has been effectively closed.

2.2 Strengthened Demand from the UK, US, and Norway

EU exports redirected significantly towards transatlantic and North Sea partners:

The United States became the most dynamic growth market, with exports nearly tripling from €353 million to €965 million. US demand was likely driven by the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (2021), the reshoring of manufacturing, and the expansion of energy infrastructure. The United Kingdom, despite becoming an extra-EU partner post-Brexit, remained the EU's single largest export destination for steel structures, growing to over €1 billion. Norway's steady growth (+71%) reflects ongoing North Sea energy infrastructure demand.

2.3 The Surge in "High Seas" Exports

One of the most remarkable features in the data is the explosion of exports classified as "High seas", rising from a negligible €75,000 in 2015 to €684 million in 2025. This category typically captures structures installed on the continental shelf or in international waters — most likely offshore wind farm foundations, oil and gas platform components, and subsea installations. This surge mirrors the EU's massive investment in offshore renewable energy and reflects the structural engineering content of offshore energy projects, where fabricated steel foundations (monopiles, jackets, transition pieces) are shipped directly to installation sites.

2.4 Growing Export Concentration and the Role of the Netherlands

The EU's export market also became substantially more concentrated. The export HHI by value more than doubled from 544 to 1,327 (+144%). This reflects the growing dominance of a few key destinations (UK, US, Norway, "High seas") and the collapse of others (Russia).

Among EU Member State exporters, the Netherlands stands out: its exports grew from €219 million to €1.64 billion (+652%), transforming it from a mid-tier exporter to the EU's largest by value. This likely reflects the Netherlands' role as a logistics hub and its leading position in offshore wind fabrication and assembly. Denmark also grew strongly (+278%, from €75 million to €284 million), consistent with its dominant role in the offshore wind supply chain. By contrast, Germany — the EU's traditional steelwork powerhouse — saw its exports decline marginally from €950 million to €856 million (−10%), possibly reflecting competitive pressures and a shift of production to lower-cost EU Member States.

3. Structural Transformation: Trade Intensification, Production Shifts, and Evolving Specialisation

Beyond the headline trade flows, deeper structural indicators reveal a fundamental transformation in how the EU steel structures sector relates to global markets.

3.1 A Shrinking Trade Surplus but Rising Trade Intensity

The EU maintained a positive trade balance in steel structures throughout the period, but the surplus narrowed sharply. From a surplus of €2.77 billion in 2015, it fell to €1.65 billion in 2025 — a contraction of 40.3%. The net import reliance remained negative (indicating the EU is still a net exporter), improving from −10.9% to −8.2%, but the underlying trend is clear: import penetration is rising faster than export growth.

Yet paradoxically, the EU sector is also becoming more trade-intensive overall. Trade intensity — measured as the share of total output that is traded with non-EU partners — nearly doubled from 16.7% to 30.0% (+80%). Export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 13.5% to 20.8% (+53%). This means that the EU's steel structures industry, once relatively insulated from global competition, is now far more integrated into international trade flows — both as an exporter of high-value products and as an importer of competitively priced fabricated steel.

3.2 Production: Declining Volumes, Rising Values

EU production of steel structures tells a nuanced story. Physical output declined from 16.5 billion kg to 14.8 billion kg (−10.2%), while production value rose from €22.1 billion to €25.6 billion (+15.5%). This divergence — falling volumes but rising values — indicates a structural shift towards higher-value-added products. EU fabricators are producing less tonnage but capturing more value per unit, consistent with a move towards complex, engineered structural components (for offshore wind, advanced construction, and specialised industrial applications) rather than commodity-grade fabricated steel.

3.3 Specialisation Patterns Across the EU

In 2025, the most specialised EU Member States in steel structures exports (measured by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) were Latvia (RSCA 0.54), Poland (0.50), Estonia (0.49), Croatia (0.46), and Denmark (0.35). Notably, Poland — with an RSCA of 0.50 and a production share of nearly 20% — is not only specialised but also large in absolute terms, having grown its exports from €319 million to €542 million (+70%). The Baltic and Central European specialisation likely reflects competitive labour costs and a strong tradition of steel fabrication.

At the other end, Malta (RSCA −0.96), Ireland (−0.64), Cyprus (−0.62), and France (−0.59) showed the strongest comparative disadvantage. France's position is noteworthy given its economic size: despite accounting for 7.8% of EU trade in this product, France is a net importer with limited export specialisation, suggesting structural competitive weaknesses in fabricated steelwork relative to its peers.

3.4 Volatility and Supply-Side Shocks

Trade volatility varied significantly across partners. On the import side, Vietnam (CV 1.10), the UAE (1.31), and Türkiye (0.76) showed the highest price volatility. On the export side, Algeria (CV 0.96) and the UAE (0.74) were the most unstable destinations.

The most significant shock events were concentrated in 2022 — a year marked by the energy crisis, post-COVID supply chain disruptions, and the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war's trade consequences:

The UAE export price shock in 2022, with an abnormality score of 14.1 and a price shift of 115%, is the most extreme event detected. It likely reflects the surge in raw material and energy costs that year, amplified by the UAE's role as a construction-intensive market willing to absorb premium pricing. The Korean import price shock (+177%) may reflect shifts in the product mix or the impact of supply chain disruptions on Korean-origin steel structures.

Conclusion

The EU market for steel structures (CN 73089098) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. Three defining trends emerge from the data:

First, the EU has experienced a massive wave of import penetration, led by China (+400%), Türkiye (+889%), and a constellation of emerging suppliers. Import volumes quadrupled while prices barely moved, indicating cost-driven sourcing from competitive external producers. The trade surplus, while still positive, shrank by 40%, and the import concentration index rose — paradoxically — even as new suppliers entered the market, because China's growth overwhelmed diversification effects.

Second, EU exports have proven resilient but have been dramatically reoriented. The collapse of the Russian market (−98.8%) was more than offset by growth in the UK (+166%), the US (+173%), Norway (+71%), and the extraordinary emergence of "high seas" destinations (+914,416%), reflecting the offshore energy boom. The Netherlands has risen to become the EU's largest exporter, overtaking Germany, and the sector's export concentration has more than doubled.

Third, the sector is undergoing a deep structural shift. Physical production volumes have declined by 10% while production values have risen by 16%, signalling a move up the value chain. Trade intensity has nearly doubled to 30%, indicating that the EU's steel structures industry is now far more exposed to — and engaged with — global markets than it was a decade ago. Central and Eastern European Member States have emerged as specialised exporters, while traditional industrial powers like Germany and France have seen relative declines in this product category.

Looking ahead, the key risks centre on the sustainability of import growth from China amid ongoing trade tensions, the potential for further geopolitical shocks to disrupt supply chains, and the question of whether EU fabricators can continue to move up the value chain fast enough to offset the competitive pressures from lower-cost imports. The data suggests an industry in transition — more globalised, more concentrated, and more specialised than ever before.