Market evolution: Sandwich panels (CN 73089051) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in sandwich panels comprising two walls of profiled "ribbed" sheet of iron or steel with an insulating core (Combined Nomenclature code 73089051) over the period 2015–2025. These panels are a key product in the construction sector, used for walls, roofing, and cold-storage applications. The EU is a major global producer and a structural net exporter of this product, yet the decade under review reveals significant shifts in the balance between domestic production, exports, and imports. Three broad dynamics emerge from the data: a dramatic surge in imports from new supplier countries, a resilient but price-inflated export performance, and deep structural changes in the EU's production landscape and trade integration.

1. The Surge in Imports and the Rise of Western Balkan and Turkish Suppliers

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the explosive growth in EU imports of sandwich panels from non-EU countries. While imports started from a relatively modest base, they expanded far more rapidly than exports, reshaping the competitive landscape.

1.1 Import value and volume more than tripled

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports grew from €67.3 million to €223.5 million, an increase of 232.1%. Import volumes rose even faster in relative terms, climbing from 42,358 tonnes to 96,923 tonnes (+128.8%). The fact that value grew nearly twice as fast as volume indicates that unit import prices also increased substantially — from €1,589/t to €2,306/t (+45.1%) — reflecting both global raw-material cost inflation and the sourcing of higher-value products.

1.2 Western Balkan countries and Türkiye became major suppliers

The most dramatic import growth came from a cluster of Western Balkan countries and Türkiye, as shown in the table below.

Türkiye, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina each moved from marginal supplier status (below €3 million) to above €30 million, collectively accounting for roughly €96 million of imports by 2025. The UK remains the single largest non-EU supplier, roughly doubling its shipments. This pattern is consistent with Western Balkan and Turkish manufacturers having invested in production capacity over the decade, leveraging proximity to the EU market, lower labour costs, and — in the case of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina — preferential trade arrangements.

1.3 Import sources became far more diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell by 50.6%, from 5,484 in 2015 to 2,711 in 2025. This halving of concentration reflects the shift from a market dominated by the UK to one where multiple suppliers compete. For EU buyers, this diversification reduces dependence on any single source and increases competitive pressure, though the volatility of some newer suppliers — notably Türkiye (coefficient of variation of 1.39) and Korea (1.22) — is notably higher than that of established partners like the UK (0.17) or Switzerland (0.20), as shown in the volatility data.

2. Export Resilience Anchored by Prices Rather Than Volumes

While imports surged, EU exports of sandwich panels remained large in absolute terms but told a more nuanced story: export volumes stagnated or slightly declined, while rising unit prices sustained overall export value growth.

2.1 Export value grew modestly but volumes declined

EU exports rose from €430.8 million to €508.7 million over the decade, a gain of 18.1%. However, the underlying physical volume actually fell from 222,809 tonnes to 213,505 tonnes (−4.2%). The entire value increase was therefore driven by a 23.2% rise in export unit prices, from €1,933/t to €2,383/t. This suggests that EU producers increasingly compete on quality, specification, and brand rather than on volume, or alternatively that they have been unable to match the price competitiveness of newer suppliers in nearby markets.

2.2 Neighbouring and accession-countries remained the primary export destinations

The top export partners remained broadly stable over the period.

The UK, Norway, and Switzerland — the three largest non-EU destinations — together absorbed over €212 million of EU exports in 2025, confirming the geographic proximity effect typical of heavy construction materials. Notably, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina saw declining EU exports even as their own exports to the EU surged, a clear sign that these countries have shifted from being net importers to becoming competitive producers that both supply the EU and substitute for EU imports in their home markets. Ukraine and Moldova, conversely, saw very strong growth in EU exports, likely linked to post-conflict reconstruction needs and EU integration processes.

2.3 Price shocks affected trade with non-traditional partners

The shock detection identified several abnormal price events in EU export flows:

• Switzerland (2021): A price shock with an abnormality score of 230.0, accompanied by a 30.8% upward shift in unit price and a 16.2% share of total export value. This likely reflects the post-pandemic surge in raw-material costs (steel, insulation) and supply-chain bottlenecks that concentrated on high-value nearby markets.
• United States (2022): A price shock with abnormality 157.5 and a 33.9% price shift, affecting a smaller 4.4% share of exports. This coincides with the global energy and commodity price spike following the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Albania (2021): A smaller shock (abnormality 19.9, +23.4%), reflecting the sensitivity of smaller markets to even moderate price changes.

These shocks highlight that while the EU's export base is geographically concentrated in stable, high-income neighbours, price volatility in raw materials propagates quickly into trade flows, particularly for a product so dependent on steel inputs.

3. Structural Transformation of the EU's Domestic Production and Market Integration

Beyond the trade-flow dynamics, the decade saw a profound transformation in the EU's domestic production landscape and in how integrated the sector has become with external markets.

3.1 EU production more than doubled in value and volume

According to production data, EU production of sandwich panels grew from 1.21 billion kg to 2.72 billion kg (+125.3%) in quantity and from €1.98 billion to €4.72 billion (+138.7%) in value. The fact that value grew faster than volume — mirroring the export-price dynamic — confirms a broad-based inflation in panel prices driven by steel, energy, and insulation-material costs. The production peak reached €5.34 billion in an intermediate year, suggesting some cyclical fluctuation around the upward trend.

3.2 Specialisation became concentrated in Central and Eastern European producers

The revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025 shows a clear geographic pattern in which EU member states hold the strongest competitive positions:

Poland stands out as both the largest producer (18.2% of EU production) and a strongly specialised exporter (RCA of 2.73), combining scale with competitive advantage. Finland, Slovenia, Romania, and Greece each have high specialisation indices despite smaller production volumes, suggesting niche-oriented or regionally focused production. At the other extreme, large economies like France (RSCA −0.71), Denmark (−0.71), and Sweden (−0.69) show negative comparative advantage, indicating they are net importers of this product relative to their overall trade profile.

3.3 Trade intensity increased while the EU retained net-exporter status

Two measures from the autonomy and vulnerability indicators illuminate how the market has opened up:

• Trade intensity (exports + imports as a share of production) rose from 9.5% to 14.6% (+54.0%), indicating that the EU sandwich-panel sector has become significantly more engaged with external markets.
• Export propensity (exports as a share of production) grew from 7.7% to 10.7% (+38.7%).

Despite these trends, the EU remained a net exporter throughout the period. The net import reliance stayed negative, ranging from −4.8% to −15.2%, and stood at −6.5% in 2025. This means that exports consistently exceeded imports as a share of the domestic market. However, the trend has been toward a narrowing surplus: the trade balance in value terms declined from €363.4 million to €285.2 million (−21.5%), squeezed by the import surge. If import growth continues to outpace export growth, the EU's net-exporter status could come under pressure in the coming years.

Conclusion

The EU sandwich-panel market (CN 73089051) underwent substantial transformation between 2015 and 2025. The dominant story is one of import acceleration: EU imports more than tripled in value, driven by the rapid emergence of Türkiye, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina as major suppliers, alongside a doubling of UK shipments. This import surge diversified the supplier base and brought the EU's trade surplus under pressure. At the same time, EU exports proved resilient in value terms but relied entirely on price increases rather than volume growth, with traditional neighbours — the UK, Norway, and Switzerland — absorbing the bulk of shipments. Finally, domestic production more than doubled, led by Poland, Italy, and other Central and Eastern European producers, while trade intensity rose markedly, confirming that the sector is increasingly integrated into global value chains. The EU remains a net exporter, but the margin is narrowing, and the competitive dynamics — particularly from Western Balkan producers benefiting from cost advantages and EU trade preferences — are likely to continue reshaping the market in the years ahead.