Market evolution: Steel road wheels (CN 87087099) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in steel road wheels and their parts and accessories (Combined Nomenclature code 87087099) over the period 2015–2025. This residual subheading covers steel road wheels for all types of motor vehicles, excluding wheels destined for industrial assembly, aluminium wheels, and cast iron/steel wheel centres in star form.

The decade under review has witnessed a fundamental structural shift in the EU's trade position. The General Overview data reveals that the EU moved from a net export surplus of €110.7 million in 2015 to a net import deficit of €137.9 million by 2025 — a swing of nearly €249 million. This transformation reflects confluence of factors: declining export volumes to key partners, rising import dependence on new supply sources, price inflation across all flows, and the dramatic reconfiguration of trade relationships driven by geopolitical shocks, most notably sanctions on Russia and Brexit-related disruptions with the United Kingdom.

1. From Surplus to Deficit: The Unravelling of the EU's Net Export Position

1.1 The trade balance collapsed by over 225% in a single decade

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the reversal of the EU's trade balance. In 2015, the EU exported €434.0 million worth of steel road wheels while importing €323.3 million, yielding a healthy surplus of €110.7 million. By 2025, exports had fallen to €362.2 million (−16.5%) while imports surged to €500.2 million (+54.7%), producing a deficit of €137.9 million. The net import reliance metric confirms this reversal: it moved from −13.8% (indicating net export capacity) to +12.1% (indicating net import dependence).

Source: General Overview

1.2 Export volumes declined far more steeply than export values

The decline in EU exports was driven primarily by a dramatic contraction in physical volumes. Export quantity fell from 111,963 tonnes in 2015 to just 70,054 tonnes in 2025 — a drop of 37.4%. Yet export value declined only 16.5% over the same period. The explanation lies in the sharp rise in unit export prices, which climbed from €3,876 per tonne to €5,169 per tonne (+33.4%). This suggests that EU manufacturers have shifted their export mix towards higher-value, higher-specification products, or that inflationary pressures have pushed up the price of remaining exports. Either way, the EU is exporting significantly less in physical terms while maintaining a partially higher-value output.

1.3 Imports grew in both volume and value, signalling structural dependence

Unlike exports, EU imports grew on both axes. Import volumes rose from 133,206 tonnes to 172,040 tonnes (+29.2%), while values climbed from €323.3 million to €500.2 million (+54.7%). The fact that value growth (+54.7%) significantly outpaced volume growth (+29.2%) points to rising import unit prices — from €2,427/t to €2,907/t (+19.8%). This price increase, while lower in percentage terms than the export price rise, nonetheless amplified the value impact of already growing import volumes.

The trade intensity of the sector increased from 41.4% to 52.6%, indicating that the EU's steel road wheel market has become progressively more intertwined with global trade flows. Export propensity remained relatively stable at around 31%, confirming that the intensification was driven primarily by the import side.

2. Price Inflation and the Shift to Higher-Value Production

2.1 Unit prices rose across all trade flows, but faster on the export side

A consistent feature of the decade is the pervasive increase in unit prices for steel road wheels. Export prices rose by 33.4% (from €3,876/t to €5,169/t), while import prices rose by 19.8% (from €2,427/t to €2,907/t). The widening price gap — from €1,449/t in 2015 to €2,262/t in 2025 — reflects a growing price premium on EU-origin wheels, consistent with a shift towards more specialised, higher-specification products or the effect of higher production costs within the EU.

Source: General Overview

2.2 EU production shifted towards higher-value output despite declining volumes

The EU production data confirms this structural evolution. Domestic production quantity (in kg) fell by 18.3% (from 1.39 billion kg to 1.14 billion kg), yet production value rose by 55.3% (from €3.09 billion to €4.80 billion). This implies that EU manufacturers have moved decisively up the value chain — producing fewer wheels at significantly higher prices. This is consistent with the broader trend in the European automotive components industry: competing on technology, quality, and customisation rather than on volume and cost.

2.3 Shock events confirm pricing pressures in key trade corridors

The volatility and shock analysis identifies several notable price anomalies. A significant price shock was detected in EU exports to Türkiye in 2023, with an abnormality score of 24.5 and a price shift of +63.7%, suggesting a sudden surge in unit values for that market. On the import side, a price shock was recorded for UK-sourced wheels in 2017, with a −21.6% shift — possibly reflecting post-Brexit referendum currency depreciation of the British pound, which temporarily made UK exports cheaper.

3. Reconfiguration of Trade Partners: Geopolitics and New Supply Chains

3.1 Türkiye and China emerged as dominant import suppliers

The partner data reveals a fundamental reordering of the EU's import sources. Türkiye has become the single largest supplier of steel road wheels to the EU, growing from €91.2 million in 2015 to €183.9 million in 2025 (+101.7%). China followed closely, rising from €53.9 million to €99.7 million (+85.0%). Together, these two countries now account for over half of EU imports by value. The United Kingdom, once a major supplier at €59.2 million, grew only modestly to €66.4 million (+12.2%), losing relative market share.

The most dramatic growth, however, came from Viet Nam, which saw imports surge from just €356,000 to €16.0 million — an extraordinary increase of 4,411.5%. This reflects the broader pattern of manufacturing relocation to Southeast Asia and the emergence of new low-cost production hubs for automotive components.

Source: Partners

3.2 Export markets were reshaped by sanctions and shifting alliances

The reconfiguration was even more dramatic on the export side. The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest export market, but its share collapsed from €140.5 million to €77.0 million (−45.2%) — likely a consequence of Brexit-related trade friction and the reorientation of UK supply chains. The most dramatic shock, however, was the near-total loss of the Russian market: exports to Russia fell from €55.2 million to just €676,000 (−98.8%), a supply shock with an abnormality score of 2.5 and a shift of −96.6%, reflecting the impact of EU sanctions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In contrast, the United States emerged as a growing destination, with exports rising from €31.4 million to €61.7 million (+96.7%). Morocco saw the most spectacular growth, surging from €3.2 million to €19.2 million (+504.3%), reflecting the deepening integration of the EU–Morocco automotive value chain, with major OEM plants in Morocco increasingly sourcing EU-manufactured components.

Source: Partners

3.3 Import concentration increased while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) data provides a complementary lens on market structure. On the import side, the value-based HHI rose from 1,586 to 2,040 (+28.6%), indicating that the EU's import supply base has become more concentrated — primarily around Türkiye and China. This rising concentration increases vulnerability to supply disruptions from a smaller number of dominant suppliers.

Conversely, the export HHI fell from 1,435 to 1,060 (−26.2%), suggesting that EU exporters have diversified their destination markets in response to the loss of Russia and the decline in UK-bound shipments. The volatility data reinforces this picture: import trade with Viet Nam shows the highest coefficient of variation (CV = 1.11), indicating highly unstable supply patterns, while Switzerland stands out as the most stable export partner (CV = 0.08).

Source: Concentration

Within the EU, Germany remains the dominant player, accounting for 29.3% of production and 21.2% of total trade value. Italy, with an RSCA (Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage) of 0.23, and Denmark (RSCA 0.35) show notable specialisation, while Ireland (RSCA −0.99) and Portugal (RSCA −0.94) are highly unspecialised in this product category.

Conclusion

The EU market for steel road wheels (CN 87087099) has undergone a profound structural transformation over the 2015–2025 decade. The most consequential shift has been the reversal from net exporter to net importer status, driven by a 37.4% contraction in export volumes that was only partially offset by rising unit prices. Simultaneously, imports surged by 54.7% in value, propelled by growing supply from Türkiye and China and the rapid emergence of Viet Nam as a new sourcing origin.

Geopolitical events have been powerful catalysts of change. The near-total collapse of exports to Russia (−98.8%) following the 2022 sanctions, combined with the halving of exports to the UK in the wake of Brexit, removed two major export markets and forced EU producers to seek new destinations — successfully in the case of the United States and Morocco, though at lower aggregate volumes. On the import side, rising concentration around Türkiye and China poses a growing strategic vulnerability, as reflected in the 28.6% increase in import HHI.

Perhaps the most significant long-term trend is the shift to higher-value production. EU production volumes declined by 18.3%, yet production value increased by 55.3%, and export unit prices rose by 33.4% to exceed €5,000 per tonne. This points to a European industry that is progressively ceding volume competition to lower-cost producers while concentrating on higher-margin, technologically differentiated products. Whether this value-up strategy proves sustainable in the face of growing import dependence and increasing supply chain concentration will be the central question for this sector in the years ahead.