Market evolution: Steel billets (CN 72071116) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in semi-finished steel products, specifically for customs code 72071116 (steel billets of low-carbon, non-alloy steel), over the period 2015–2025. The data reveals a decade of significant structural change, characterized by a substantial expansion in trade volumes, a dramatic shift in sourcing patterns, and pronounced price volatility linked to major global shocks. The EU's position evolved from a balanced importer to one with a large and growing trade deficit in value terms, driven by surging imports from new origins and a simultaneous contraction of domestic production. This period highlights the EU steel industry's increasing integration into—and vulnerability within—global supply chains.

The Surging Import Reliance and Widening Trade Deficit

The period was defined by a major expansion of imports, far outpacing the growth in exports. This trend fundamentally reshaped the EU's trade balance for steel billets, making the bloc increasingly reliant on foreign supplies to meet its demand.

• Imports grew dramatically in both volume and value. EU imports of billets increased by 93.3% in quantity and 161.7% in value between 2015 and 2025. Import values climbed from €305 million to nearly €798 million. In contrast, while exports also grew (by 170.7% in volume), they started from a much smaller base and failed to keep pace, rising in value from €31 million to €101 million.
• The trade deficit widened sharply. As a direct consequence, the EU's trade deficit in value terms more than doubled, from -€274 million in 2015 to -€697 million in 2025. This structural deficit underscores the EU's transition to a net importer of billets on a significant scale.
• Domestic production volumes declined. The shift towards import reliance coincided with a 17.2% reduction in EU production volumes, which fell from 10.04 million tonnes to 8.31 million tonnes. However, the value of production more than doubled, indicating significant price inflation in the market.

A Radical Reorientation of Trade Partners and Market Volatility

The source of the EU's imports underwent a profound transformation, with new, often distant, suppliers rising to prominence while traditional partners' shares fluctuated wildly. This reorientation introduced new sources of volatility into the market.

• Ukraine solidified as the top supplier, but China and India emerged dramatically. Ukraine remained the largest import partner, with its value increasing by 144.9%. The most striking change, however, was the rise of China, whose exports to the EU surged by 383.9% in value, and India, which grew by an exceptional 2825%. Norway also became a major, though volatile, supplier.
• Export destinations became more diversified but less stable. The EU's export market also shifted. North Macedonia became the dominant destination, with value growing by 74.2%. Exports to the United Kingdom collapsed by 95.9%, reflecting post-Brexit adjustments, while Morocco and Türkiye grew as key partners.
• Trade volatility was high, with extreme shocks detected from new suppliers. The coefficient of variation (CV) in trade values was notably high for several partners. For imports, China (CV: 1.85) and India (CV: 1.45) showed extreme volatility. Analysis identified a major supply shock from China in 2017, where imports plummeted by 99.3%, and a subsequent price shock in 2018 with a 547% price surge.

Domestic Production Adjustment and Geopolitical Price Pressures

Behind the trade figures lies a story of adjusting production within the EU and of prices being heavily influenced by global market and geopolitical forces, rather than solely by local dynamics.

• EU production became more value-oriented but less volume-intensive. The fall in production volume (-17.2%) alongside the rise in value (+102.9%) indicates that EU mills produced less tonnage but at significantly higher average prices. This could reflect a strategic focus on higher-value products, the impact of rising energy costs, or reduced capacity utilization.
• The EU's internal market structure shows varied specialization. Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) shows that France and Greece are highly specialized in producing billets, while major trading nations like the Netherlands and Belgium have virtually no specialization, acting primarily as trading hubs. The import market concentration (HHI) remained moderately high, indicating reliance on a limited group of key suppliers.
• Prices experienced extreme volatility, driven by external events. Both import and export prices more than doubled over the period, peaking dramatically. This was not uniform; it was punctuated by shocks. The data points to specific events, such as the 2018 price shock from China and the 2021 price shock in exports to North Macedonia. These were likely linked to broader market turbulence, such as global capacity adjustments, tariffs, or logistics disruptions, demonstrating the EU market's sensitivity to international developments.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU steel billet market underwent a fundamental transformation. It evolved from a relatively balanced market into one characterized by deepening import dependence, a significant trade deficit, and pronounced exposure to global price and supply volatility. The consolidation of Ukraine as a primary supplier, coupled with the volatile but massive rise of imports from China and India, has redrawn the trade map. Simultaneously, the contraction of EU production volumes, despite rising production values, points to an industry under structural and cost pressures. The period was marked by significant price shocks, underscoring the market's integration into a turbulent global system. Key monitoring points for the future include the stability of new supply lines, the trajectory of EU production capacity, and the market's resilience to geopolitical and logistical disruptions.