Market evolution: Stainless steel hot rolled coils thick (CN 721912) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in Flat-rolled products of stainless steel, of a width of >= 600 mm, not further worked than hot-rolled, in coils, of a thickness of >= 4.7 mm and <= 10 mm (CN 721912) over the period 2015–2025. The product sits within the broader category of flat-rolled stainless steel (CN 7219) and encompasses two sub-segments differentiated by nickel content: CN 72191210 (containing ≥ 2.5% nickel by weight) and CN 72191290 (containing < 2.5% nickel).

Over this eleven-year window, the EU's position in global trade for this product underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc shifted from a comfortable net exporter — recording a trade surplus of €105.0 million in 2015 — to a net importer with a deficit of €74.3 million by 2025. This structural reversal was driven by a simultaneous collapse in export volumes and a sustained increase in import demand. At the same time, the geographic composition of trade partners was radically reshaped, domestic production more than doubled, and unit prices experienced significant turbulence, particularly around the 2022 commodity price shock. The following three sections unpack these dynamics in detail.

1. A Decisive Swing from Trade Surplus to Deficit

The most striking feature of the EU's trade in CN 721912 over the past decade is the reversal of its trade balance with non-EU countries. From a position of clear export strength in 2015, the EU's external accounts in this product deteriorated steadily, crossing into deficit territory and ending the period deeply in the red.

Export volumes fell by two-thirds while import volumes rose by a third

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 721912 to non-EU countries fell from 108,531 tonnes to 35,876 tonnes, a decline of 66.9%. In value terms, exports dropped from €242.6 million to €107.3 million (−55.8%). Over the same period, imports grew from 69,596 tonnes to 93,032 tonnes (+33.7%), rising in value from €137.5 million to €181.6 million (+32.0%).

The trade balance thus swung by €179.3 million over the period, from a surplus of €105.0 million in 2015 to a deficit of €74.3 million in 2025 — a change of −170.8%. The data further shows that the deficit reached its worst point at some stage during the period at −€111.7 million, before partially recovering by 2025.

Unit prices diverged between exports and imports

A notable feature is the divergence in unit price trends. EU export prices rose from €2,235/t in 2015 to a peak of €3,775/t (the period maximum) before settling at €2,990/t in 2025 — a net increase of 33.8%. Import prices, by contrast, were essentially flat over the entire period: from €1,976/t to €1,952/t (−1.2%), with a period maximum of €2,810/t. This means the EU's exported product commanded an increasing premium (rising from 13% above the import price in 2015 to 53% above in 2025), suggesting either a shift in the product mix of exports toward higher-value grades, or a growing cost disadvantage for EU producers relative to their foreign competitors.

EU production volumes more than doubled even as exports collapsed

According to the production data, EU domestic output of CN 721912 grew from approximately 2.99 million tonnes in 2015 to 6.52 million tonnes in 2025 — an increase of 117.9%. In value terms, production rose from €2,163 million to €4,140 million (+91.4%). The production peak was even higher at 6.80 million tonnes (and €7,560 million in value). This massive expansion in output, occurring simultaneously with a 66.9% drop in export volumes, implies that the additional production was absorbed either by intra-EU demand or by domestic consumption rather than by external markets. The EU's stainless steel hot-rolled coil sector is clearly oriented toward serving its own industrial base, and the growth in imports alongside rising production points to robust — and growing — internal demand.

2. A Radically Reshaped Geographic Landscape

Behind the headline trade figures lies a dramatic restructuring of the EU's trade relationships for CN 721912. Both on the import and export sides, the relative importance of individual partners shifted substantially, with some traditional relationships eroding and entirely new corridors gaining prominence.

China lost its dominant position as an import supplier

In 2015, China was by far the EU's largest extra-EU supplier of CN 721912, accounting for €112.3 million in imports. This figure surged to a peak of €175.8 million before declining sharply to just €21.4 million in 2025 — a drop of 80.9% from the 2015 level. The import concentration HHI fell from 6,753 to 2,391 (−64.6%), reflecting precisely this shift away from Chinese dominance toward a much more diversified supplier base. The decline of Chinese imports likely reflects a combination of EU trade defence measures (anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties on Chinese stainless steel) and the broader competitive rise of alternative Asian producers.

Indonesia, Taiwan, and India emerged as major new suppliers

Three countries filled — and more than filled — the gap left by China on the import side:

Indonesia's growth is linked to the rapid expansion of its stainless steel industry, notably through Chinese-backed investment in nickel processing and stainless steelmaking. Taiwan's share grew massively from a small base, while India — essentially absent in 2015 at just €332,000 — became a nearly €49 million supplier by 2025, with a peak above €55 million. Korea remained a relatively stable but secondary supplier.

EU export markets contracted across most traditional destinations

On the export side, the EU experienced a near-universal decline in shipments to its major non-EU customers:

Malaysia, which was the EU's single largest export destination in 2015 at €53.4 million, saw shipments collapse to just €3.2 million (−93.9%). Türkiye and Spain's export destinations also shrank dramatically. Only India and Mexico showed significant growth among the top partners, with India rising to €15.5 million (+78.1%) and Mexico growing from virtually nothing to €7.0 million. The overall export concentration HHI remained relatively low and stable (1,361 to 1,637), indicating that while individual partner shares shifted, the export base did not become dramatically more or less concentrated.

Within the EU, Italy dominates imports while Spain and Italy saw their exports collapse

The EU Member States played very different roles:

Importing side: Italy was by far the largest importer of CN 721912 from outside the EU, growing from €95.2 million in 2015 to €151.5 million in 2025 (+59.2%). Belgium held second position at €14.6 million, while Poland grew from €2.6 million to €6.9 million. Notably, the Netherlands and Finland essentially exited as importers over the period.

Exporting side: Sweden remained the largest EU exporter throughout the period, though shipments declined from €58.4 million to €41.3 million (−29.4%). Belgium followed at €43.4 million (down from €50.9 million). The most dramatic collapses occurred in Spain (from €76.1 million to €1.5 million, −98.0%) and Italy (from €12.4 million to €0.5 million, −96.0%). Finland's exports roughly halved from €37.9 million to €16.8 million.

Nordic and Benelux countries hold a revealed comparative advantage

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that three EU Member States hold a strong revealed comparative advantage (RSCA > 0) in CN 721912:

Belgium stands out with 62.7% of its total stainless steel flat-rolled exports consisting of this specific hot-rolled coil product, suggesting a highly specialised production base. Finland and Sweden, with their integrated stainless steel mills (Outokumpu and Aperam/Outokumpu operations), also show strong specialisation. All other EU Member States examined have negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers of this product in comparative terms.

3. Volatility, Price Shocks, and Sub-Product Dynamics

Beyond the structural shifts in trade volumes and geography, the 2015–2025 period was marked by significant price volatility and supply disruptions, most notably around the 2022 global commodity price surge. The two sub-segments of CN 721912 — differentiated by nickel content — also exhibited distinct trade patterns.

The 2022 commodity shock produced sharp price spikes for imports from India and Indonesia

The volatility and shock analysis identifies three major shock events, all centred on 2022:

These shocks coincide with the global surge in raw material and energy prices in 2022, which was amplified for stainless steel by nickel price spikes on the London Metal Exchange. India-origin imports saw an abnormal price jump of 69.5%, while Indonesian imports rose by 53.7% — both far exceeding normal fluctuations. Given that Indonesia and India together accounted for a growing share of EU imports, these price shocks had outsized impacts on the EU's total import bill.

Import and export volatility varies sharply by partner country

The coefficient of variation of trade values reveals wide differences in the stability of different trade relationships:

Most volatile import sources (CV > 1.0):

• United States (CV: 1.55) — reflecting sporadic, small-volume shipments
• Türkiye (CV: 1.54) — highly intermittent flows
• India (CV: 1.27) — rapid scaling from near-zero to major supplier

Most stable import sources (CV < 0.6):

• Japan (CV: 0.51) — consistent low-volume supplier
• South Africa (CV: 0.52) — steady niche supplier

On the export side, the most volatile destination was the United Kingdom (CV: 1.07), while the most stable was Hong Kong (CV: 0.23) and Korea (CV: 0.29).

The high-nickel sub-segment (CN 72191210) dominates both imports and exports

The product segment breakdown reveals that CN 72191210 (≥ 2.5% nickel content) accounts for the overwhelming majority of trade:

Imports by sub-segment (2025):

Exports by sub-segment (2025):

The high-nickel sub-segment accounts for 92.3% of imports and 84.2% of exports by value in 2025. Its unit prices are substantially higher: imports of 72191210 cost 47% more per tonne than 72191290, while exports commanded a 105% premium.

Export prices for the high-nickel segment peaked sharply in 2022

Tracing the price evolution of CN 72191210 over the full period reveals the 2022 spike clearly:

The 2022 spike saw export prices reach €4,205/t (the period maximum for 72191210 exports), while import prices peaked at €2,906/t. By 2025, import prices had largely returned to pre-shock levels (€2,001/t vs. €2,052/t in 2015), but export prices remained elevated at €3,254/t — 43% above their 2015 level. This persistent export premium, widening from 10.8% in 2015 to 62.6% in 2025, suggests either increasing product differentiation, higher EU production costs, or a strategic shift by EU producers toward higher-value-added specifications that command premium pricing in niche markets.

The low-nickel sub-segment shows more volatile but divergent patterns

CN 72191290 (< 2.5% nickel) represents a smaller but more volatile trade flow. Import quantities fluctuated between 2,446 tonnes (2020, the period minimum) and 10,976 tonnes (2022), with no clear upward or downward trend. Export volumes, however, grew from 7,026 tonnes in 2015 to 13,849 tonnes in 2024 before dropping back to 5,687 tonnes in 2025. This sub-segment's export price remained far more stable (range: €1,271–€2,153/t) compared to the high-nickel segment, consistent with the lower raw material cost exposure to nickel price swings.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in CN 721912 over 2015–2025 tells a story of fundamental structural change. The bloc transitioned from a net exporter with a €105 million surplus to a net importer carrying a €74 million deficit, driven by a 66.9% collapse in export volumes alongside a 33.7% increase in imports. This occurred paradoxically against a backdrop of surging domestic production, which more than doubled to 6.52 million tonnes — confirming that the shift was not caused by deindustrialisation but rather by the reorientation of EU output toward internal demand and the growing competitiveness of Asian producers in export markets.

The geographic landscape was transformed: China's share of EU imports plummeted, replaced by Indonesia, Taiwan, and India — all of which scaled from marginal suppliers to major ones. On the export side, the EU lost ground in nearly all traditional markets, with shipments to Malaysia, Türkiye, and Spain falling by 88–98%. The 2022 commodity price shock left a visible scar, particularly through price spikes on Indian and Indonesian imports, though prices have since normalised on the import side even as EU export premiums have remained structurally elevated.

Looking ahead, the concentration of EU production in a small number of specialised Member States (Finland, Belgium, Sweden) and the growing reliance on a geographically diverse but individually volatile import base present both resilience and vulnerability. The persistence of high export unit premiums, meanwhile, may reflect either a competitive niche strategy or an emerging cost challenge — the answer to which will shape the EU's position in global stainless steel trade in the years to come.