Market evolution: Soybean oil (CN 150790) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in refined soybean oil and its fractions (customs code 150790) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers refined soybean oil for both food (CN 15079090) and technical/industrial uses (CN 15079010), excluding crude and chemically modified oil. Over the decade, the EU remained a structural net exporter, yet the market underwent significant transformations: a surge in import volumes (largely from Argentina), a dramatic commodity-price shock in 2021–2022, a sharp contraction in domestic production, and a deepening of the bloc's integration into global soybean-oil supply chains. The following sections detail these dynamics in turn.

1. Import Surge Reshapes the EU's Traditional Trade Surplus

The EU entered the period as a consistent net exporter of refined soybean oil and maintained a positive trade balance throughout. However, the structural gap between exports and imports narrowed considerably as import growth far outstripped export performance.

Export values rose while volumes fell, masking a structural decline

EU exports of refined soybean oil grew from €174.7 million in 2015 to €221.0 million in 2025, a nominal increase of 26.5% (trade overview). In volume terms, however, exports declined by 9.7%, from 214,380 tonnes to 193,609 tonnes. The value increase was therefore almost entirely driven by higher unit prices (up 40.1%, from €815/t to €1,141/t) rather than by expanding physical trade flows.

Imports surged in both volume and value, led by Argentina

Imports told a very different story. In value terms, imports rose from €21.3 million in 2015 to €72.1 million in 2025 — an increase of 237.9% (trade overview). Volume grew by 151.1%, from 24,458 tonnes to 61,411 tonnes. At its peak, annual imports reached 169,737 tonnes — roughly seven times the 2015 level — and €187.2 million in value, indicating that certain years saw a massive inflow, likely linked to temporary supply-demand imbalances or strategic stock-building.

The trade balance, while remaining positive in every year, narrowed from €153.4 million in 2015 to €148.9 million in 2025 (−2.9%). At its weakest, the surplus fell to just €38.7 million, underscoring how import surges periodically compressed margins. At its widest it reached €275.7 million, reflecting years of exceptionally strong export performance.

The partner landscape was dramatically restructured

The composition of the EU's trading partners shifted markedly over the decade (by-country partners):

• Argentina emerged from near-zero imports in 2015 (€864) to become by far the EU's largest single supplier in 2025 at €39.6 million — and at its peak supplied €167.4 million in a single year.
• Türkiye followed a similar trajectory, rising from under €6,000 to €5.2 million.
• Russia collapsed from €7.2 million to just €169 (−100%), almost certainly reflecting the EU sanctions regime imposed after 2022.
• The United Kingdom grew steadily as an import source (+118.8% to €23.2 million), reflecting continued post-Brexit trade in processed oils.

On the export side, the EU's top destination remained the United Kingdom (from €36.7 million to €99.0 million, +169.6%). South Africa and Angola — once major African markets — declined sharply (−79.1% and −64.5% respectively), while exports to South Korea surged from under €1 million to €31.6 million, a more than 30-fold increase. This eastward pivot in EU exports is one of the most striking structural shifts of the period.

2. Price Dynamics and the 2021–2022 Commodity Shock

The period 2015–2025 was defined above all by a dramatic run-up in soybean oil prices, concentrated in 2021–2022, which reshaped trade values and exposed the EU to supply-side volatility from a small number of highly concentrated partners.

Unit values peaked in 2022 and have since partially corrected

Both import and export unit prices followed a broadly similar trajectory: relatively stable in the €740–960/t range during 2015–2020, a sharp spike to over €1,500–1,740/t in 2022, and a partial correction toward the €1,100–1,400/t range by 2025 (trade overview). The 2022 peak broadly coincided with the global commodity price surge triggered by post-pandemic demand recovery, drought conditions in South America, and the disruption of Black Sea supply chains following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Three major price shocks were detected in partner-level data

The shock detection analysis identified three statistically significant price anomalies (supply shocks):

The Argentina import shock stands out: with an abnormality score of 48.9 and a 150% price jump, it represented by far the most extreme event. Given that Argentina accounted for 70.7% of EU import value in that year, this single event transmitted significant inflationary pressure into the EU market. Argentina's coefficient of variation (1.84) was among the highest of all partners, confirming its role as a highly volatile supplier despite — or because of — its dominance.

Import concentration has increased, amplifying supply-chain risk

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports rose from 3,683 to 4,115 by value and from 3,334 to 4,452 by volume over the period (concentration analysis). These values are well above the 2,500 threshold commonly associated with a highly concentrated market. The growing dominance of Argentina as a single supplier — a country with a historically high coefficient of variation of 1.84 and a volatility score that ranks it among the most unstable import partners — means the EU's refined soybean oil import base has become more concentrated and more exposed to South American supply disruptions.

Export concentration also increased (HHI from 1,754 to 2,337 by value), though from a lower base, reflecting the growing share of the United Kingdom as the EU's dominant export destination.

3. Structural Decline in EU Production and Deepening Market Integration

Behind the trade-flow data lies a more fundamental structural transformation: a sharp contraction in EU domestic production of refined soybean oil, accompanied by a doubling of trade intensity — indicators that point to a progressively more import-dependent and globally integrated European market.

EU production fell by over 40% in volume and nearly 50% in value

PRODCOM data show that EU production of refined soybean oil (PRODCOM 10.41.51.00) declined from 1,705,400 tonnes in 2015 to approximately 1,000,000 tonnes in 2025, a drop of 41.4% (production volumes). Production value fell by 47.2%, from €947 million to €500 million. The decline was not linear: output reached a trough of 762,238 tonnes at one point, suggesting a particularly acute contraction in one or more years.

This production decline likely reflects a combination of factors: reduced crushing activity in the EU, substitution by other vegetable oils (notably palm and rapeseed oil), and the impact of sustainability regulations on soybean sourcing.

Trade intensity nearly doubled, signalling deeper global integration

The EU's trade intensity — the sum of imports and exports relative to production — rose from 22.2% in 2015 to 46.0% in 2025, an increase of 107%. At its peak, trade intensity reached 58.0%. This means that nearly half of the EU's refined soybean oil market now involves cross-border transactions, up from roughly one-fifth at the start of the period.

Export propensity also grew substantially, from 21.5% to 38.8% (+80.6%), indicating that a growing share of whatever the EU does produce is destined for export markets rather than domestic consumption (export propensity).

The Netherlands consolidated its position as the EU's export hub

Among EU Member States, the Netherlands was by far the most specialised exporter, with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.57 in 2025 — the highest in the EU — and accounting for over 52.9% of EU production (specialisation). Dutch export values rose from €70.3 million to €154.6 million (+119.7%), reinforcing the country's role as the EU's primary re-export and processing hub. Spain ranked second in specialisation (RSCA 0.49), with a production share of 16.9%.

On the import side, Italy emerged as the largest single-country importer within the EU (from €0.3 million to €44.2 million), followed by Ireland (€6.4 million to €12.7 million). Several traditional importers — notably Denmark (−68.0%) and Germany (−81.9%) — saw sharp declines, suggesting a geographic re-concentration of EU import activity around Mediterranean and Atlantic ports.

The food-use segment dominates trade, while the industrial-use segment shows extreme volatility

The product segment breakdown reveals that the vast majority of EU trade consists of the food-use sub-product (CN 15079090), which accounted for around 187,059 tonnes in exports and 15,541 tonnes in imports in 2025. The industrial-use sub-product (CN 15079010) is much smaller in normal years — typically 1,000–12,000 tonnes in exports and a few thousand tonnes in imports — but experienced extreme import spikes, notably surging to 159,821 tonnes in 2023 before collapsing back to 204 tonnes in 2024. Such swings suggest episodic, large-volume industrial procurement (possibly for biodiesel or oleochemical production) rather than steady commercial demand.

Conclusion

The EU's refined soybean oil market between 2015 and 2025 was shaped by three converging trends: a rapid expansion of imports (primarily from Argentina), a dramatic price shock in 2021–2022 that inflated trade values across the board, and a sustained decline in domestic production that pushed trade intensity to record levels. The EU has maintained its status as a net exporter throughout the period, but the margin has narrowed, and the underlying production base has eroded significantly.

Several risks stand out. Import concentration has increased, with Argentina now dominating supply — and Argentina's trade profile is among the most volatile of all partners. The 2021 price shock demonstrated how quickly a single-source dependency can transmit cost inflation into the EU market. Meanwhile, the collapse of Russian supply (from €7.2 million to near-zero) and the decline of traditional African export markets (South Africa, Angola) have restructured the EU's trade geography, with South Korea and the UK emerging as the principal growth destinations.

Looking ahead, the EU's deepening reliance on imported refined soybean oil — combined with rising market concentration and persistent price volatility — suggests that supply diversification and strategic stock management will remain important policy considerations for the remainder of the decade.