Market evolution: Soft drinks (CN 220299) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the EU's trade in non-alcoholic beverages classified under customs code CN 220299, a residual heading that covers soft drinks excluding water, fruit or vegetable juices, milk, and beer. The category bundles a wide range of products—from flavoured carbonated drinks to plant-based beverages and dairy-adjacent drinks—making it a useful proxy for the broader non-alcoholic drinks market.
Over the 2017–2025 period covered by the data, the EU has firmly consolidated its position as a net exporter in this category. Export values nearly doubled, rising from €1.34 billion to €2.54 billion, while import values grew more moderately from €269 million to €421 million. The resulting trade surplus expanded from €1.08 billion to €2.12 billion—a near-doubling that underscores the EU's growing competitive edge in global soft-drink markets. Importantly, value growth consistently outpaced volume growth, signalling a market shaped not only by expanding demand but also by significant price inflation and a shift toward higher-value product segments.
The following sections explore these dynamics in three dimensions: the structural expansion of EU trade flows, the role of rising unit values, and the evolving product mix driving the sector's transformation.
1. A Structural Acceleration in EU Trade Flows
EU exports have grown at roughly twice the rate of imports
The most striking feature of the 2017–2025 period is the divergence between export and import growth. EU export values rose by 89.1% (from €1.34 billion to €2.54 billion), while import values grew by 56.8% (from €269 million to €421 million). In volume terms, the gap is narrower but still pronounced: export quantities increased by 41.0% (from 1.13 million tonnes to 1.59 million tonnes) against a 30.1% rise in imports (from 251,000 tonnes to 328,000 tonnes).
| Metric | First year (2017) | Last year (2025) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (EUR) | 1,344,117,581 | 2,542,328,520 | +89.1% |
| Export volume (t) | 1,127,209 | 1,589,048 | +41.0% |
| Import value (EUR) | 268,636,732 | 421,354,142 | +56.8% |
| Import volume (t) | 251,383 | 327,092 | +30.1% |
| Trade balance (EUR) | 1,075,480,849 | 2,120,974,378 | +97.2% |
Source: General Overview
The United Kingdom remains the dominant trade partner by a wide margin
The UK is the EU's largest partner on both sides of the ledger, absorbing €999 million in EU exports in 2025 (+83.0% over the period) and supplying €74 million in imports (+58.2%). Its continued prominence reflects both geographic proximity and deeply integrated supply chains in beverages, which have survived (albeit with added friction) the post-Brexit trade reconfiguration.
Other notable export destinations include Switzerland (€187 million, +128.1%), Norway (€77 million, +146.4%), and China (€68 million, +184.4%). The latter's rapid growth points to expanding demand for European-branded soft drinks in Asia. On the import side, Switzerland (€74 million), South Korea (€38 million, +61.2%), and Taiwan (€26 million, +32.7%) are the main sources, while Türkiye recorded the fastest import growth at 172.6%, rising from €5.9 million to €16.0 million.
| Top export partners | Value 2017 (EUR m) | Value 2025 (EUR m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 545.7 | 998.9 | +83.0% |
| Switzerland | 82.0 | 187.1 | +128.1% |
| United States | 93.1 | 100.7 | +8.1% |
| Türkiye | 81.7 | 114.9 | +40.8% |
| China | 24.0 | 68.1 | +184.4% |
| Israel | 16.5 | 49.4 | +200.5% |
| Norway | 31.2 | 76.9 | +146.4% |
Source: Partners
Within the EU, the Netherlands and Germany anchor export growth
Among EU Member States, the Netherlands is the single largest exporter of CN 220299 products, with exports rising from €460 million to €777 million (+68.7%). Germany more than doubled its exports from €228 million to €538 million (+135.8%), while Spain (+156.4%), France (+192.1%), and Belgium (+107.2%) also posted extraordinary growth rates. Italy, despite being a major beverage producer, saw a slight decline (−16.7%), potentially reflecting competitive pressures or a redirection of production toward other tariff lines such as mineral waters (CN 220210).
On the import side, Ireland stands out with a 341.9% increase in imports—from €10.9 million to €48.2 million—suggesting either growing domestic demand or the expansion of re-export logistics through Irish ports. Germany (€89 million) and the Netherlands (€68 million) are the largest importers.
| Top EU exporters | Value 2017 (EUR m) | Value 2025 (EUR m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 460.4 | 776.7 | +68.7% |
| Germany | 228.2 | 538.1 | +135.8% |
| Italy | 156.9 | 130.7 | −16.7% |
| Belgium | 100.0 | 207.2 | +107.2% |
| Denmark | 108.0 | 156.9 | +45.3% |
| Spain | 69.2 | 177.3 | +156.4% |
| France | 52.2 | 152.4 | +192.1% |
Source: Reporters
Trade openness has more than doubled, with the EU becoming more export-oriented
The EU's trade intensity for CN 220299 rose from 7.4% to 17.5%, while export propensity climbed from 6.5% to 15.2%. Both metrics roughly doubled, indicating that the EU's soft-drink sector has become significantly more internationally oriented. The net import reliance deepened from −5.9% to −14.3%, confirming that the EU is not self-sufficient in this category but rather a structurally outward-facing producer whose surplus is widening.
2. Rising Unit Values Signal Upmarket Positioning and Cost Inflation
Export and import prices both trended upward, but exports rose faster
A critical driver of the value growth described above is the sustained increase in unit values. EU export prices per tonne rose by 34.2%, from €1,192/t to €1,600/t, while import prices grew by 20.6%, from €1,068/t to €1,288/t. The widening price premium on exports relative to imports suggests that the EU is increasingly exporting higher-value products while importing more price-competitive ones.
| Price metric | First year (2017) | Last year (2025) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export price (EUR/t) | 1,192 | 1,600 | +34.2% |
| Import price (EUR/t) | 1,068 | 1,288 | +20.6% |
| Export supp. price (EUR/1000 m³) | 1.20 | 1.73 | +44.3% |
| Import supp. price (EUR/1000 m³) | 1.09 | 1.36 | +24.8% |
Source: General Overview
Price shocks have been concentrated in a handful of trading partners
Volatility analysis reveals several notable price shocks during the period:
- Türkiye (exports, 2020): An abnormal price shift of +29.3% (abnormality score 25.4), coinciding with the pandemic year and likely reflecting currency-driven repricing of EU goods in the Turkish market.
- Thailand (imports, 2021): A +21.1% price spike (abnormality 10.3), possibly linked to supply-chain disruptions and rising freight costs in the post-COVID recovery.
- Norway (exports, 2023): A +10.2% price shift (abnormality 12.8), occurring during the period of elevated energy and input costs across Europe.
These shocks, while significant in isolation, were absorbed within a broader upward price trend rather than triggering structural breaks.
The price–volume relationship reveals inflation-driven value growth
Comparing value, volume, and price changes reveals that roughly two-thirds of EU export value growth came from higher prices rather than increased quantities. Export values rose 89.1%, of which 34.2 percentage points came from price increases and 41.0 percentage points from volume growth—though these interact multiplicatively. This pattern is consistent with broader food-and-beverage inflation across the EU economy over 2021–2024, as well as a compositional shift toward higher-value product categories.
3. An Evolving Product Mix Favouring Plant-Based and Dairy-Adjacent Beverages
The dominant sub-category is "other" non-alcoholic beverages, but growth is elsewhere
CN 220299 is a residual, bundled heading comprising six sub-categories. In both imports and exports, the largest single segment is 22029919—"other" non-alcoholic beverages not based on soya, nuts, cereals, or seeds, and not containing milk fats. This catch-all accounted for €1.18 billion in exports (47% of the total) and €256 million in imports (61%) in 2025. Its export volume, however, peaked in 2021 at 948,000 tonnes before declining to 656,000 tonnes in 2025, even as its value continued to rise—evidence of a strong move upmarket in pricing.
Plant-based beverages (22029915) have seen explosive export growth
The most dynamic sub-category is 22029915—soya-based beverages (protein <2.8%) and drinks based on nuts, cereals, or seeds. EU export volumes in this segment surged from 93,000 tonnes in 2017 to 362,000 tonnes in 2025—a nearly fourfold increase. In value terms, exports rose from €69 million to €306 million (+344%). This trajectory closely mirrors the consumer shift toward plant-based diets and dairy alternatives across European and global markets.
| Sub-category | Export vol. 2017 (t) | Export vol. 2025 (t) | Export val. 2017 (EUR m) | Export val. 2025 (EUR m) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22029919 – Other non-alcoholic beverages | 613,372 | 656,017 | 686 | 1,185 |
| 22029915 – Soya/nut/cereal-based (<2.8% protein) | 93,230 | 361,881 | 69 | 306 |
| 22029995 – 0.2–2% milk fat | 104,203 | 323,029 | 141 | 387 |
| 22029991 – <0.2% milk fat | 145,005 | 118,500 | 282 | 463 |
| 22029999 – ≥2% milk fat | 88,257 | 70,622 | 108 | 146 |
| 22029911 – Soya-based (≥2.8% protein) | 83,141 | 58,999 | 58 | 56 |
Source: Product Segment Breakdown
Dairy-adjacent beverages show divergent paths depending on fat content
Among beverages containing milk-derived fats, 22029995 (0.2–2% milk fat) saw export volumes triple from 104,000 tonnes to 323,000 tonnes, with values growing from €141 million to €387 million. This category likely captures flavoured milk drinks, iced coffees, and similar products that have gained significant market traction.
By contrast, 22029911 (high-protein soya beverages) saw export volumes decline from 83,000 tonnes to 59,000 tonnes, with values essentially flat at €56–58 million. This suggests that consumer preference has shifted away from traditional soya milks toward the broader plant-based category captured by CN 22029915, which includes oat, almond, and other alternative milks.
Import concentration has declined, while export concentration remains elevated
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell by 30.0%, from 1,363 to 954, indicating that the EU's import sources have become more diversified. In contrast, export concentration declined only modestly (−6.8%), from 1,893 to 1,764, still reflecting the heavy weight of the UK as a destination market.
Among the most specialised EU exporters, Austria (RSCA 0.58), Cyprus (0.64), and Denmark (0.43) lead, consistent with their strong presence in both carbonated soft drinks and functional beverages. On the other end, Ireland (RSCA −0.91) and Bulgaria (−0.78) are the least specialised, reflecting their roles primarily as importers or transhipment points.
Conclusion
Over the 2017–2025 period, the EU's trade in CN 220299 beverages has undergone a dual transformation: a strong quantitative expansion and a qualitative shift toward higher-value products. Export values nearly doubled to €2.54 billion, driven by a combination of volume growth (+41%) and significant price appreciation (+34%). The EU's trade surplus in this category widened to over €2.1 billion, and its export propensity roughly doubled to 15.2%, signalling that the sector is increasingly oriented toward international markets.
Structurally, the most notable development is the rise of plant-based and dairy-adjacent beverages. The sub-category covering soya, nut, cereal, and seed-based drinks (CN 22029915) grew from a marginal position to become the second-largest export segment by volume, with shipments quadrupling over the period. Similarly, low-fat milk-containing beverages (CN 22029995) tripled in export volume. These shifts reflect global consumer trends toward plant-based diets and functional drinks, and position the EU as a key supplier of these fast-growing product categories.
Looking ahead, the sector faces a mixed outlook. On one hand, the EU's strong brand equity, diversified production base, and expanding trade openness provide a solid foundation for continued growth. On the other hand, the increasing importance of the UK as a post-Brexit export market introduces regulatory and logistical risks, while the concentration of export flows among a handful of Member States and destinations—particularly the UK, which alone accounts for nearly 40% of EU exports—leaves the sector exposed to demand shocks in specific markets. Price dynamics will also be critical to monitor: if the inflationary environment that drove unit values upward over 2021–2024 moderates, future value growth will need to come more squarely from volume expansion and product innovation.