Market evolution: Soft drinks (CN 220210) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in soft drinks — waters with added sugar, sweetener or flavour (CN 220210) — between 2015 and 2025. Over this period, the European Union has consistently maintained a trade surplus in this product category, yet both the scale and structure of its trade have changed considerably. Exports grew in volume by 56%, while imports expanded even faster in value terms (+70.6%). The data reveals three major dynamics: a divergence between export and import unit prices, a marked diversification of trade partners, and a significant increase in the EU's trade openness in soft drinks. Together, these trends paint the picture of an industry that is both expanding its global footprint and becoming more integrated with non-EU markets.

1. Export-Led Growth Under Pressure from Declining Unit Values

EU soft drink exports have grown substantially in volume and value

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 220210 rose from €2.01 billion to €2.75 billion in value (+37.0%) and from 1.86 million tonnes to 2.90 million tonnes in volume (+56.0%). This confirms a robust expansion of the EU's external sales of soft drinks over the decade, driven largely by rising physical volumes rather than higher prices. The peak export value of €3.18 billion was recorded in 2022, after which exports declined somewhat.

Source: General Overview

Export unit prices have fallen, squeezing per-tonne margins

A key feature of the period is the steady decline in EU export unit prices, which fell from €1,080/t in 2015 to €948/t in 2025 (−12.2%). The lowest point was €941/t. This suggests that EU exporters have increasingly competed on volume and price rather than on premium positioning, or that the product mix has shifted toward lower-value categories. Supplementary-unit prices (EUR per 1,000 m³) tell the same story, declining by 14.0% over the period.

Import unit prices have moved in the opposite direction

While EU export prices fell, import prices rose significantly — from €946/t in 2015 to €1,142/t in 2025 (+20.6%). This divergence means that the EU is increasingly selling soft drinks abroad at a lower unit price than what it pays for imported products. Several factors may explain this asymmetry: imported soft drinks may include more premium or niche products (e.g., from Switzerland, a major supplier), currency effects, or differing product mixes. Notably, EU imports grew by 70.6% in value but only 41.4% in volume, indicating that rising prices — not just higher volumes — drove the import bill upward.

Source: General Overview

The trade surplus narrowed despite continued export leadership

The EU has maintained a positive trade balance in soft drinks throughout the period, but the surplus grew only modestly — from €1.18 billion in 2015 to €1.34 billion in 2025 (+13.6%). The peak surplus of €1.91 billion was reached in 2022, coinciding with the highest export year. The fact that imports grew nearly twice as fast as exports in value terms (70.6% vs. 37.0%) explains the relative stagnation of the surplus, even as both sides of the ledger expanded.

2. Diversifying Partnerships and the Decline of the US Market

Trade concentration has fallen sharply on both sides

One of the most striking structural changes is the steep decline in trade concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI). On the import side, the HHI (by value) fell from 4,151 to 2,289 (−44.9%). On the export side, it dropped from 1,675 to just 640 (−61.8%). Both figures indicate a meaningful diversification of the EU's trade relationships in soft drinks. The export HHI in particular, falling well below the 1,500 threshold, suggests a highly competitive and fragmented export landscape by 2025.

Source: Concentration (HHI)

The United States has lost its position as a top EU export destination

Perhaps the single most dramatic shift in the data is the collapse of EU soft drink exports to the United States. From a peak of €1.18 billion (in the first year), exports to the US fell to just €193 million by 2025 — a decline of 67.9%. This represents a loss of nearly €1 billion in export value. The causes likely include increased domestic US production, tariff or regulatory changes, and intensified competition from non-EU producers. The high coefficient of variation (0.38) in US export flows confirms that this was not a smooth trajectory but one marked by significant volatility.

Source: Top partners

Emerging and neighbouring markets have absorbed lost US demand

The decline in US-bound exports has been partially offset by strong growth in other markets. Norway saw a 244.6% increase in EU soft drink imports (from €52M to €181M), and Brazil recorded a 484.4% increase (from €29M to €168M). Neighbouring markets such as Bosnia and Herzegovina (+152.3%) and Serbia (+148.1%) also expanded meaningfully. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom — the single largest EU export partner — saw a slight decline of 2.2%, from €517M to €506M, likely reflecting post-Brexit trade frictions. A notable price shock of −34.5% was detected in UK export flows in 2021, coinciding with the first full year of post-Brexit trade arrangements.

EU imports have diversified significantly, with rapid growth from Ukraine and Serbia

On the import side, the United Kingdom (€421M, +54.5%) and Switzerland (€503M, +11.0%) remain the dominant suppliers. However, several partners have seen explosive growth: Ukraine's exports to the EU surged from under €1M to €42M (+4,640%), Serbia grew from €8M to €103M (+1,133%), and Türkiye more than doubled from €27M to €54M. These shifts likely reflect EU trade agreements, supply chain reconfiguration, and — in the case of Ukraine — the EU's trade liberalisation measures introduced after 2022. Among EU Member States, Austria remains the largest importer of soft drinks (€449M), followed by Ireland (€287M), with the Netherlands showing the fastest growth (+606%, from €19M to €132M).

Source: Top reporters

3. A Sector Becoming More Open and Internationally Integrated

EU soft drink production has expanded substantially in both volume and value

Over the period, EU production of CN 220210 (measured in thousand cubic metres) grew from 26.5 billion to 37.3 billion (+40.8%). Production value rose even more sharply, from €16.0 billion to €29.9 billion (+87.3%). This near-doubling of production value, substantially outpacing volume growth, indicates significant price increases at the domestic level — a trend consistent with input cost inflation, premiumisation within the category, and general consumer price growth across the EU.

Source: Production volumes

Trade intensity and export propensity have roughly tripled

The most compelling indicator of the sector's growing internationalisation is the sharp rise in trade intensity (total extra-EU trade as a share of production value), which climbed from 5.0% in 2015 to 13.7% in 2025 (+170.6%). Export propensity (extra-EU exports as a share of production) similarly rose from 3.8% to 9.5% (+152.7%). These figures imply that while the EU soft drink market remains overwhelmingly domestic, its external orientation has roughly tripled in a decade. The sector is clearly engaging more with global markets than it did at the start of the period.

Source: Trade intensity

Austria anchors the EU's export specialisation in soft drinks

Austria is by far the largest EU exporter of CN 220210, accounting for €857M in 2025 — nearly a third of total extra-EU exports. It also exhibits one of the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) scores in the EU at 5.19, with an RSCA of 0.68, confirming a strong and sustained specialisation. Other notably specialised Member States include Denmark (RSCA 0.39), Croatia (0.36), and Hungary (0.25). At the other end of the spectrum, Sweden (RSCA −0.69) and Ireland (−0.59) show significant comparative disadvantage, with import-heavy profiles relative to their overall trade.

Source: Specialisation

The EU's net-exporter position has strengthened slightly

Throughout the period, the EU has been a net exporter of soft drinks, with net import reliance consistently negative (i.e., exports exceed imports). This indicator moved from −2.4% in 2015 to −4.9% in 2025, reaching a trough of −10.2% in 2022. The strengthening of net-exporter status, particularly from 2020 to 2022, corresponds to the period of peak exports and was only partially reversed afterwards as imports caught up.

Source: Net import reliance

Conclusion

The EU's soft drink trade (CN 220210) has undergone a significant transformation between 2015 and 2025. While the EU remains a net exporter with a healthy trade surplus, the balance has been reshaped by several forces: declining export unit prices eroding per-tonne margins, the near-total collapse of exports to the United States, and the rapid rise of new import suppliers from Southeastern Europe and Ukraine. At the same time, the sector's internationalisation has accelerated markedly, with trade intensity roughly tripling. Looking ahead, the key questions for the sector include whether EU exporters can reverse the downward trend in unit values, how emerging trade relationships with partners like Brazil and Norway will evolve, and whether continued import growth — particularly from nearby non-EU producers — will further narrow the trade surplus.