Market evolution: Self-adhesive plastic film (CN 391990) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in self-adhesive plates, sheets, film, foil, tape, strip and other flat shapes of plastics wider than 20 cm (Combined Nomenclature code 391990), covering the period 2015 to 2025. The product scope encompasses a broad range of industrial self-adhesive plastic materials, from packaging films and labelling tapes to specialty products such as semiconductor polishing pads (sub-code 39199020). These products serve critical roles across sectors including electronics, automotive, construction, healthcare and packaging.

Over the eleven-year window, the EU's trade position in this product category has been characterised by three major dynamics: a pronounced shift from volume-driven to price-driven growth in both exports and imports; a significant reorientation of trade partners reflecting geopolitical changes such as Brexit and sanctions against Russia; and a structural strengthening of EU domestic production capacity alongside changing competitive specialisation among Member States. This report analyses each of these dynamics in turn.

1. Price-Driven Growth: Rising Values Mask Stagnant or Declining Volumes

Export revenues grew substantially while physical volumes fell

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 391990 over 2015–2025 is the divergence between value and volume trends. EU exports to non-EU countries rose from €1.47 billion to €1.83 billion in value (+24.6%), yet export volumes declined from 254,039 tonnes to 209,871 tonnes (−17.4%). The average unit export price consequently surged from €5,767/t to €8,695/t (+50.8%), absorbing what would otherwise have been a significant contraction in trade receipts. The peak export value was reached in 2022 at €1.94 billion, before retreating modestly in 2023–2025.

Import growth was even stronger in value terms, driven by both volume and price

EU imports expanded from €852 million to €1.33 billion (+55.8%), making the import side the faster-growing segment of this market. Unlike exports, import volumes also increased — from 116,398 tonnes to 129,011 tonnes (+10.8%) — while unit import prices rose from €7,316/t to €10,283/t (+40.6%). The acceleration of imports reflects growing domestic demand for self-adhesive plastic products that EU producers could not fully meet, as well as increasingly competitive offerings from third-country suppliers, notably China.

The EU trade surplus narrowed despite strong domestic production

The EU has remained a consistent net exporter of CN 391990 products throughout the period, but the trade balance in value terms eroded from €614 million in 2015 to €499 million in 2025 (−18.8%), reaching its lowest point in the final year of the series. The peak surplus of €756 million was recorded in 2022. The net import reliance indicator, which was at −52.3% in 2015 (negative confirming net exporter status), moved to −36.9% by 2025, indicating a gradual convergence of import and export volumes relative to production. This erosion of the surplus was driven almost entirely by faster import growth; the EU's export propensity actually increased from 77.8% to 91.2% of production, suggesting EU producers increasingly relied on non-EU markets to absorb output.

Price inflation in plastics and input cost pressures were the common driver

The price increases observed on both the export and import sides — well above general inflation — point to structural factors affecting the plastics industry globally: rising raw material costs (particularly petrochemical feedstocks), increased energy prices (especially acute during the 2021–2022 period), and supply-chain disruptions linked to the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent energy crisis. The unit import price consistently exceeded the unit export price, reflecting the higher-value or more specialised nature of some imported products, including the semiconductor polishing pads classified under sub-code 39199020, which command prices exceeding €80,000/t in import.

2. Geopolitical Reorientation of Trade Partners

China emerged as the dominant import supplier, more than doubling its share

Among EU import partners, China recorded the most dramatic growth, with import values rising from €146 million to €317 million (+116.5%). China's share of total EU imports in this product thus grew substantially. The volatility of Chinese shipments (coefficient of variation of 0.28) was moderate but higher than that of Western suppliers, suggesting some year-to-year variability. South Korea (+89.0%) and Türkiye (+100.1%) also roughly doubled their export values to the EU, while India (+65.2%) showed strong growth from a lower base. These trends reflect the broader shift of global plastics conversion capacity toward Asia and emerging economies.

EU exports to Russia collapsed following sanctions

On the export side, the most notable shift was the decline in exports to the Russian Federation: from €144 million in 2015 to €64 million in 2025 (−55.3%). This decline, which accelerated from 2022 onwards, is a direct consequence of EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The volatility of EU-Russia trade flows was among the highest for any major partner (coefficient of variation of 0.47), reflecting the abrupt disruption. In parallel, EU exports to the United States surged from €136 million to €247 million (+81.4%), and exports to Switzerland grew from €91 million to €129 million (+41.3%), suggesting partial redirection of export capacity toward stable Western markets.

Import concentration modestly decreased while export markets remained diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value fell from 1,928 to 1,777 (−7.9%), indicating a moderate diversification of suppliers — still above the 1,500 threshold sometimes associated with moderate concentration. By contrast, the export HHI remained low and essentially flat at around 736–755, reflecting the EU's highly diversified customer base. The volume-based import HHI rose sharply (+69.4%), however, suggesting that while import spending became more spread across partners, physical import volumes became more concentrated — likely reflecting China's growing share of tonnage alongside higher-value niche imports from other sources.

The United Kingdom retained importance for both EU imports and exports post-Brexit

The United Kingdom remained a top-3 partner on both sides of the trade flow. EU imports from the UK grew from €159 million to €247 million (+54.9%), while EU exports to the UK rose from €256 million to €297 million (+16.2%). The UK thus continued to function as a major trading partner in this product category despite the post-Brexit introduction of customs formalities, though the growth rates were more moderate than for some other partners.

3. Expanding EU Production Capacity and Shifting Internal Competitiveness

EU domestic production grew strongly in both volume and value

EU production of CN 391990 products increased from 335,546 tonnes (€1.38 billion) to 438,413 tonnes (€2.10 billion) over the period, representing volume growth of +30.7% and value growth of +52.0%. This expansion significantly outpaced the growth of extra-EU exports in volume terms (which actually declined), indicating that a larger share of EU production was being absorbed by the internal market or by intra-EU trade. The production peak in value reached €2.87 billion in one of the intermediate years, suggesting cyclical fluctuations alongside the structural upward trend.

Germany dominated EU production and trade, but Central European members gained ground

Among EU Member States, Germany accounted for the largest share of both extra-EU exports (€769 million in 2025, +8.1%) and extra-EU imports (€278 million, +6.1%). However, the most dynamic growth came from other Member States:

The Netherlands' extraordinary export growth (+402.7%) likely reflects its role as a logistics and re-export hub (Rotterdam port), while Poland's rise (+152.9%) mirrors its broader industrialisation in plastics conversion and its integration into European manufacturing supply chains. Belgium's strong import growth (+206.3%) alongside declining exports (−13.6%) may indicate a shift toward serving as a distribution gateway rather than a production base.

Specialisation patterns reveal concentrated competitive advantages

The revealed comparative advantage analysis for 2025 shows that Luxembourg had the highest RSCA score (0.95) — though in absolute terms its production was negligible (0.11% of EU total). More meaningfully, Finland (RSCA 0.35), Belgium (0.26), Italy (0.17) and Germany (0.12) demonstrated positive specialisation, with Germany alone accounting for 26.8% of EU production. At the other end, Portugal (RSCA −0.86), Romania (−0.73) and Bulgaria (−0.68) showed significant negative specialisation, indicating these markets were heavily import-dependent for this product category.

The semiconductor polishing pad sub-segment introduced price volatility

The product breakdown into two sub-codes reveals that CN 39199080 (general self-adhesive plastic film and sheets) accounted for over 99% of trade volumes in both directions, while CN 39199020 (circular polishing pads for semiconductor wafers) represented a tiny fraction of tonnage — around 300–500 tonnes in import and 500–1,400 tonnes in export — but with extremely high unit prices. Import prices for sub-code 39199020 escalated from €13,448/t in 2017 to a peak of €100,291/t in 2023, reflecting the high-tech, low-volume nature of this niche. This sub-segment, while small, contributed disproportionately to value fluctuations and introduced significant price volatility into aggregate CN 391990 trade statistics.

Conclusion

The EU trade in self-adhesive plastic film and sheets (CN 391990) over 2015–2025 reveals a market that has undergone significant structural transformation beneath seemingly stable headline figures. The EU maintained its position as a net exporter, but the surplus narrowed from €614 million to €499 million as imports grew faster than exports in value terms. The dominant story is one of price-driven growth: unit prices rose 40–50% on both sides of the trade flow, driven by input cost inflation, energy shocks and supply-chain restructuring, while physical export volumes actually declined by 17%.

Geopolitical shifts reshaped the partner landscape. China more than doubled its export value to the EU, while Russia's share collapsed under sanctions pressure. The EU's traditional diversification of export markets provided resilience, with the US, Switzerland and Türkiye absorbing redirected flows. Within the EU, Germany remained the dominant player but Poland and the Netherlands emerged as increasingly important nodes in the production and logistics network.

Looking forward, the rising export propensity (now at 91% of production) and high trade intensity (95%) signal that this industry is deeply integrated into global value chains. The gradual erosion of the EU's net export position, combined with rising Chinese import penetration, warrants monitoring — particularly in the context of ongoing debates around European industrial competitiveness in the plastics sector.