Market evolution: Adhesive tape (CN 391910) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in self-adhesive plates, sheets, film, foil, tape, strip and other flat shapes of plastics in rolls ≤ 20 cm wide (CN code 391910) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers a broad range of adhesive tapes and films, from rubber-coated polypropylene strips to general-purpose plastic tapes, serving packaging, industrial, healthcare, and construction applications.

Over the decade, the EU has maintained a structural trade surplus in this product category. However, behind aggregate stability lie significant transformations: a marked divergence between value and volume trends, a reshaping of trade partner geography—particularly the surge of Chinese imports and the collapse of EU–Russia trade—and a substantial expansion of EU production in value terms. This report unpacks these dynamics across three main themes.

1. The Price–Volume Divergence: A Decade of Structural Upgrading

EU exports grew in value but contracted in volume

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of CN 391910 rose by 30.0% in value, from €618 million to €803 million, while export volumes actually declined by 10.1%, from 81,601 tonnes to 73,381 tonnes (General Overview). The export unit price consequently climbed by 44.5%, from €7,573/t to €10,942/t. This pattern points to a clear shift toward higher-value-added product mixes in EU exports—specialty tapes, technical films, and performance adhesive products—rather than volume-driven growth.

EU imports followed the opposite trajectory: volume-driven growth

Import value grew by 38.4% (from €475 million to €657 million), but this was almost entirely accounted for by a 33.6% volume increase (from 82,888 tonnes to 110,767 tonnes). The import unit price rose by only 3.5%, from €5,728/t to €5,931/t. This indicates that import growth was supply-driven—fueled by additional volumes arriving at relatively stable prices—rather than by a move toward premium products (General Overview).

The trade surplus persisted despite volume shifts

The EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout the period, ranging from a low of €87 million (2018) to a high of €178 million (2021), ending at €146 million in 2025. Net import reliance remained negative (−5.6% in 2025), confirming the EU's status as a net exporter. However, the surplus grew more modestly (+2.1%) than either flows alone, reflecting the fact that imports grew faster in volume terms while exports compensated through price increases (Net import reliance).

EU production expanded dramatically in value

PRODCOM data shows that EU domestic production of CN 391910 surged by 84.1% in volume (from 216 million kg to 398 million kg) and by 209.9% in value (from €904 million to €2,802 million) over the period (Production volumes). The value growth vastly outpacing volume growth confirms the sectoral trend toward higher-value production—specialty adhesives, films for electronics, and medical-grade tapes likely account for much of this premiumization.

2. A Shifting Geographic Landscape: Partners, Polarisation, and Disruption

China became the EU's dominant import supplier

Of all partner dynamics, the rise of China stands out most sharply. EU imports from China nearly doubled in value over the decade, rising by 99.5% from €106 million to €212 million, with a peak of €216 million in 2023. China's share of total imports therefore grew substantially, making it by far the largest single origin. Taiwan, by contrast, saw a slight decline (−17.1%), while India grew strongly (+73.1%) and Serbia exploded from a negligible base (+2,286%) (Top partners by value).

The UK and US remained the EU's key export markets, but Russia collapsed

On the export side, the United Kingdom remained the largest destination (€122 million in 2025, −3.3%), followed by Switzerland (+59.1%) and the United States (+91.8%). The most dramatic change was the collapse of exports to the Russian Federation, which fell by 60.1% from €33 million to €13 million. This decline accelerated from 2022 onward and is almost certainly linked to EU sanctions imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Morocco (+53.0%) and Australia (+12.2%) also grew as export destinations (Top partners by value).

Import concentration rose while export markets diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports increased by 16.5% (from 1,491 to 1,737 by value), indicating growing concentration of import origins—driven primarily by China's expanding share. By volume, the import HHI rose even more steeply (+63.4%). In contrast, the export HHI declined by 15.5% (from 769 to 650), meaning EU exporters diversified their customer base over the decade (Concentration). This asymmetry—rising import concentration alongside export diversification—reflects a dual trend: increasing dependence on a smaller number of low-cost suppliers (notably China), but growing resilience on the demand side through broader market reach.

Geopolitical shocks left visible traces in the data

Several supply shock events are detectable in the data. UK import prices spiked abnormally in 2021 (abnormality score 92.1, +131.5% price shift), likely reflecting post-Brexit customs frictions and pandemic-era supply chain disruptions. Egyptian export prices showed an extreme anomaly in 2020 (abnormality 332.3, +89.2%). Trade with the Russian Federation exhibited the highest volatility coefficient among all partners (CV = 1.18 for imports), reflecting the dramatic disruption from sanctions and geopolitical instability.

3. EU Production Leadership and the Evolving Competitive Landscape

Germany dominates production and trade, but Poland and France are rising fast

Germany accounted for 30.4% of EU production value in 2025 and was by far the largest exporter (€306 million, +19.3%) and importer (€186 million, +7.5%) among EU member states (Top reporters). Italy was the second-largest exporter (€119 million, −4.0%) and the second-most specialised producer in the EU.

The most striking growth, however, came from Central and Eastern Europe. Poland's exports grew by 217.6% (from €19 million to €61 million), and its imports surged by 113.8%. France similarly more than its export value (+118.3%). These shifts suggest production capacity relocation toward lower-cost EU member states, a trend consistent with broader European manufacturing reorganisation.

Italy and Luxembourg led in revealed comparative advantage

Analysis of specialisation in 2025 shows that Luxembourg (RSCA = 0.63, RCA = 4.40) and Italy (RSCA = 0.49, RCA = 2.94) had the strongest comparative advantages in CN 391910. Italy's position is particularly significant given that it accounted for 23.6% of EU production and 8.0% of total trade. Germany, while dominant in absolute terms, had a more moderate RSCA (0.18), reflecting its broader industrial base. At the other end, newer EU members such as Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovenia showed negative RSCA values, indicating that they remain net importers and have not yet developed significant competitive capacity in this segment.

Trade intensity and export propensity both increased

The EU's trade intensity (imports + exports as a share of production) rose from 34.4% to 42.8%, while export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 23.2% to 29.1% (Trade intensity and Export propensity). The higher salience score for export propensity (46.4 vs. 31.4 for trade intensity) suggests that the EU's growing international orientation in this sector is driven more by outward competitiveness than by import dependency. This is consistent with the EU's positioning in higher-value adhesive products where domestic producers can compete globally.

Product sub-segments reveal divergent import and export structures

The product segment breakdown shows distinct specialisation patterns between imports and exports. On the import side, CN 39191080 (general-purpose self-adhesive plastic tapes) dominated with 72,669 tonnes in 2025, accounting for the bulk of import volume. On the export side, CN 39191015 (polypropylene strips coated with unvulcanised rubber) was the largest category by volume (23,431 tonnes), followed closely by 39191080 (30,053 tonnes).

Notably, the import price of 39191080 (€6,286/t) was substantially lower than its export price (€16,223/t), suggesting that the EU imports low-cost, commodity-grade tapes while exporting higher-specification variants. This price differential—nearly 2.6x—is consistent with the broader premiumisation thesis. Meanwhile, 39191019 (other rubber-coated strips) showed the highest export unit price at €15,375/t, up 63.8% from 2015, confirming a niche but growing specialisation in specialty products.

Conclusion

The EU adhesive tape market (CN 391910) underwent a significant structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. While headline trade figures suggest stability—the EU maintained its surplus and both flows grew—the underlying story is one of qualitative change. EU exports shifted toward higher-value products, domestic production expanded dramatically in value terms, and the sector became more internationally integrated. At the same time, the geographic landscape was reshaped by the near-doubling of Chinese imports, the collapse of trade with Russia following sanctions, and the rapid rise of Central European producers like Poland.

Looking forward, the key risks relate to growing import concentration on China, which exposes the EU to potential supply disruptions or trade policy changes. The sector's strong export propensity and positive trade balance, however, suggest that EU producers retain a competitive edge in higher-value segments—an advantage that has, if anything, strengthened over the decade.