Market evolution: Recovered waste paper (CN 4707) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade of recovered waste and scrap paper (Harmonized System code 4707) by the European Union with non-EU partners from 2015 to 2025. The period was marked by significant structural shifts, moving from a market dominated by exports to China towards a more regionalized trade pattern with diverse Asian and European partners. Overall, the EU's role as a net exporter persisted, but the scale diminished while prices became more volatile, reflecting global disruptions and changing demand dynamics.

1. The Collapse of the China-Led Export Model and Pivot to New Asian Markets

The most dramatic change in the EU's recovered paper trade was the near-total evaporation of exports to China and the rapid emergence of alternative Asian destinations.

The disappearance of China as the primary destination

In 2015, China was the overwhelming destination for EU exports, absorbing EUR 620 million worth of the material. By 2025, this trade had essentially vanished, with exports valued at just over EUR 211,000—a decline of -100%. This collapse is directly linked to China's 2018 "National Sword" policy, which imposed strict contamination limits and eventually banned the import of most scrap materials, including recovered paper. The top export partners data shows this shift starkly.

Surging demand from India, Indonesia, Türkiye, and Viet Nam

The void left by China was filled by several key markets, though none individually replaced its volume.

The combined growth in these five markets exceeded the value lost from China, indicating a fundamental redirection of the EU's waste paper streams. This pivot is also reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports, which dropped from a very high 4546 in 2015 to 1750 in 2025, signifying a massive reduction in market concentration and increased diversification.

A paradoxical trend: rising prices despite falling volumes

The EU exported less paper (7.18 million tonnes in 2015 vs. 5.97 million in 2025, a -16.9% decline) at higher average prices (EUR 130/t vs. EUR 140/t, +8.0%). This suggests that while demand volume softened, competition for quality scrap in the new Asian markets intensified, allowing EU exporters to achieve better prices for their material.

2. Volatile Import Dynamics and Increased European Self-Reliance

While the EU remained a major net exporter, its import side underwent notable shifts, characterized by growing dependence on a few key European partners and the shock-induced exit of Russia.

The United Kingdom consolidated its position as the EU's top import source

Despite Brexit, the United Kingdom not only maintained but strengthened its role as the leading supplier of recovered paper to the EU. Import values grew by +38.6%, from EUR 96 million to EUR 133 million. This increase may reflect tighter UK regulations diverting waste streams back to the EU or integrated supply chains across the English Channel. The top import partners data shows that Switzerland and Norway also remained important, stable suppliers.

The complete collapse of imports from the Russian Federation

Trade with Russia, which was worth EUR 3.6 million in 2015, dropped to just EUR 102 by 2025—a de facto cessation (-100% change). The data indicates the decline began well before 2022, with value already falling to EUR 102 by 2021. This was likely an early signal of trade sanctions and geopolitical tensions, fully severing this supply line.

Regional import patterns reflect intra-EU trade strength

Looking at the top EU member state importers, countries like Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy consistently showed the highest import values from outside the EU. This indicates that major paper-producing nations within the EU supplement their domestic collection with imported scrap to feed their mills, highlighting the importance of cross-border waste flows within Europe.

3. Price Volatility, Shocks, and Divergent Segment Performance

The market was characterized by significant price volatility, with a major shock event in 2021 that affected different paper segments unevenly.

A major price shock in 2021 impacted several Asian export partners

The volatility analysis identifies 2021 as a year of severe price shocks for exports to Viet Nam, Indonesia, and Türkiye. For example, the price of exports to Viet Nam surged by +128.6% in that year. These shocks are likely linked to global logistics disruptions, container shortages, and a scramble for raw materials during the post-pandemic recovery.

Kraft & Corrugated (470710) was the most resilient and valuable export segment

This sub-product, primarily consisting of cardboard waste, was the backbone of EU exports. It consistently accounted for the largest share of both exported quantity and value. In 2025, it represented 74% of exported volume and 72% of exported value. Its average export price (EUR 137/t) in 2025 was more stable and lower than other segments, reflecting its bulk commodity status.

Mechanical Pulp (470730) showed the highest price volatility and a steep decline

Exports of this category (e.g., old newspapers) exhibited extreme price swings. Its import price peaked at EUR 264/t in 2022 before falling back. More significantly, its exported volume and value declined dramatically—quantity fell by -44% from 2015 to 2025. This reflects a structural decline in demand for newsprint as print media circulation shrinks globally.

Bleached Chemical Pulp (470720) is a niche, high-value but volatile segment

This segment (e.g., high-grade office paper waste) consistently commanded the highest prices (EUR 189/t export price in 2025). However, its trade volumes were small and erratic, making its revenue stream the most volatile. Its specialization data shows that countries like Denmark and Poland have a relative comparative advantage in exporting this product.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in recovered waste paper underwent a fundamental transformation. The China-centric export model disintegrated, forcing a rapid but successful diversification to markets across Asia. This shift led to a more fragmented export market but also to a paradox where falling export volumes were paired with rising unit values. On the import side, the EU became more reliant on key European partners like the UK, while seeing Russian supplies vanish entirely. The period was punctuated by severe price volatility, particularly in 2021, with the kraft/corrugated segment proving the most stable, while the mechanical pulp segment faced a long-term decline. Overall, the data points to a market that has reoriented itself, becoming more regional, less concentrated, and subject to the divergent fates of its constituent paper types.