Market evolution: Old corrugated containers (CN 470710) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in CN 470710 — recovered waste and scrap of unbleached kraft paper, corrugated paper or corrugated paperboard, commonly known as old corrugated containers (OCC) — over the period 2015 to 2025. OCC is the single most traded grade of recovered paper worldwide and a critical feedstock for the containerboard and packaging industry. The EU has historically been one of the world's largest net exporters of OCC, generating a significant trade surplus in this commodity.

Over the decade examined, the EU's trade profile in OCC underwent a structural transformation. Total export value declined from €658.5 million in 2015 to €603.5 million in 2025 (−8.4%), while export volumes fell more steeply from 5.22 million tonnes to 4.42 million tonnes (−15.4%). Meanwhile, imports into the EU more than doubled in value — from €65.5 million to €131.8 million (+101.1%) — and nearly doubled in volume. The trade surplus narrowed from €593.0 million to €471.7 million (−20.5%). Behind these headline figures lie three defining dynamics: the collapse of exports to China following its waste import bans, the redirection of OCC flows toward South and Southeast Asia and Türkiye, and a series of price shocks triggered by the post-COVID demand surge and supply-chain disruptions of 2021.

1. From China Dependency to Asian Diversification: The Reshaping of EU Export Flows

The collapse of the China corridor

The most consequential shift in EU OCC trade over the past decade was the near-total disappearance of China as a destination. In 2015, China absorbed €514.3 million of EU OCC exports — accounting for roughly 78% of total extra-EU export value — making it by far the dominant partner country. By 2025, exports to China had fallen to just €89,885, effectively zero. This dramatic decline is directly attributable to China's progressive tightening of waste import policies — the "National Sword" campaign launched in 2017, followed by a complete ban on all recovered paper imports effective January 2021.

Source: Top partners by value — exports

The rise of India, Southeast Asia, and Türkiye as alternative markets

The vacuum left by China was not filled by a single replacement but by a broad array of markets across Asia and the eastern Mediterranean. India emerged as the single largest destination by 2025, absorbing €180.3 million in value — a more-than-sixfold increase from €27.5 million in 2015. Indonesia grew from €37.9 million to €95.1 million, and Türkiye surged from €16.3 million to €101.8 million. Viet Nam and Malaysia, which were marginal destinations in 2015 (€6.7 million and €1.8 million respectively), grew to €81.0 million and €41.6 million — increases exceeding 1,000% in both cases.

This diversification is strongly reflected in the export concentration index (HHI). The export HHI by value fell from 6,165 in 2015 to 1,719 in 2025, a decline of 72.1%. A value above 2,500 is conventionally considered highly concentrated; the EU's export market for OCC moved from extreme concentration on China to a genuinely diversified structure spread across multiple partners.

EU member states that lost — and gained — from the reorientation

The redistribution of export flows also reshaped the roles of individual EU member states. The Netherlands, historically the EU's largest OCC exporter (likely reflecting the role of Rotterdam as a major collection and re-export hub), saw its exports fall from €184.6 million to €92.9 million (−49.7%). Belgium experienced an even steeper decline, from €85.1 million to €24.5 million (−71.2%), and Germany from €54.6 million to €10.5 million (−80.8%). By contrast, Spain maintained its volumes broadly (+2.8%, reaching €90.9 million), and France and Ireland registered increases of +47.0% and +13.7% respectively. Italy remained a major exporter at €133.1 million, though slightly below its 2015 level.

These shifts suggest that the port-centric re-export model (Netherlands, Belgium) was disproportionately affected by the loss of the China trade, while southern European exporters (Spain, Italy) may have been better positioned geographically and commercially to serve the new Mediterranean and Indian Ocean routes.

2. Growing EU Import Needs and the Narrowing Trade Surplus

EU imports of OCC more than doubled

While EU exports declined in volume terms, imports of OCC from non-EU countries grew substantially. Import volumes rose from 456,684 tonnes in 2015 to 846,762 tonnes in 2025 (+85.4%), and import value increased from €65.5 million to €131.8 million (+101.1%). This trend reflects growing domestic demand for recovered fibre feedstock within the EU, driven by capacity expansions in containerboard manufacturing (particularly in the wake of e-commerce growth and plastic-to-paper substitution trends) and, at times, by tight domestic collection volumes.

Source: General overview — trade

The United Kingdom and Norway as key import sources

Among non-EU import partners, the United Kingdom became the largest source, growing from €12.9 million in 2015 to €53.7 million in 2025 (+316.1%). This likely reflects the post-Brexit reclassification of UK–EU paper waste trade as extra-EU flows, as well as genuine cross-border flows of OCC from UK collection systems into EU recycling mills, particularly in the Netherlands, France, and Belgium. Norway also grew significantly, from €6.7 million to €26.9 million (+300.3%), while Switzerland remained relatively stable (€20.1 million to €23.0 million). Notably, imports from the Russian Federation collapsed to essentially zero (from €0.3 million to €59), consistent with sanctions and trade disruptions following 2022.

The import HHI rose moderately from 2,069 to 2,615 (+26.4%), indicating that while the EU's export market became more diversified, its import market became somewhat more concentrated — partly because the UK's share grew substantially.

Germany and the Netherlands drive import growth

On the EU member-state side, the Netherlands saw the most dramatic import increase (+145.8%, from €15.6 million to €38.4 million), followed by Sweden (+193.6%), Belgium (+170.5%), Italy (+125.9%), and France (+83.7%). Germany remained the largest single importer at €30.9 million in 2025 (+74.4%). Hungary was the only major importer to show essentially flat growth (+2.3%). These figures suggest that the expansion of containerboard capacity in western and northern Europe has outstripped domestic OCC collection, necessitating supplementary imports.

Specialisation patterns reveal structural roles

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals a clear division of labour within the EU. France (RSCA 0.47), Poland (0.39), Denmark (0.40), and Latvia (0.41) are the most specialised net exporters of OCC — countries with large paper collection infrastructures relative to their domestic consumption. Conversely, Ireland (RSCA −0.82), Spain (−0.73), Finland (−0.70), and Hungary (−0.51) are the least specialised, meaning their OCC export share in total trade is well below the EU average. This is consistent with Finland's orientation toward virgin fibre pulp, Spain's growing domestic recycling capacity, and Ireland's small-collector profile.

3. The 2021 Price Shock and Persistent Volatility in Key Corridors

2021 stands out as a year of exceptional price disruption

The year 2021 emerges from the data as the most volatile and disruptive period for OCC trade. Shock detection identifies three major events, all centred on 2021:

The price shocks in exports to India and Viet Nam — with abnormality indices of 134.9 and 57.9 respectively — indicate extreme, historically unprecedented price movements. Export unit prices to India surged by 135.3% and to Viet Nam by 130.9% in that single year. This aligns with the well-documented global OCC price spike of 2021, driven by a combination of post-COVID demand recovery, containerboard capacity expansions in Asia, shipping container shortages, and the final enforcement of China's import ban which redirected massive demand pressure to remaining Asian buyers.

EU export unit prices overall ranged from a trough of €93.6/t to a peak of €196.9/t over the period, with the peak almost certainly occurring in 2021. Import prices followed a similar arc, ranging from €94.4/t to €218.3/t.

Persistent volatility in key bilateral corridors

Beyond the 2021 spike, several trade corridors display chronically high volatility (measured by the coefficient of variation of export or import value):

• China (exports, CV = 1.37): By far the most volatile corridor, reflecting the boom-to-bust trajectory from dominant buyer to near-zero.
• Malaysia (exports, CV = 1.12): Rapid growth punctuated by policy uncertainty (Malaysia also imposed temporary import restrictions on waste paper in 2018–2019).
• Russian Federation (imports, CV = 1.36): Import flows from Russia fluctuated wildly before collapsing to zero.
• Algeria (imports, CV = 1.60), Israel (1.02), Bosnia and Herzegovina (0.96): Small-volume import corridors with high variability.

By contrast, Switzerland (imports, CV = 0.06) and Indonesia (exports, CV = 0.39) represent relatively stable, mature trading relationships.

The 2021 aftermath: prices receded but did not return to pre-shock levels

By 2025, EU export prices stood at €136.6/t and import prices at €155.6/t — both well above the 2015 starting points of €126.1/t and €143.5/t respectively (+8.4% and +8.5% over the full period). This suggests that while the extreme spike of 2021 was temporary, a structural upward shift in OCC pricing occurred, reflecting tighter global supply-demand balances, the permanent redirection of trade flows away from China, and higher logistics costs.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in old corrugated containers over 2015–2025 was defined by one overarching structural shift: the redirection of export flows from China to a diversified set of markets in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Türkiye. This was not a gradual market evolution but a forced transformation, triggered by China's regulatory decisions to ban waste imports. The EU successfully diversified — the export HHI fell by 72% — but at the cost of reduced total volumes (−15.4%) and a narrowing trade surplus (−20.5%).

At the same time, EU import needs for OCC have grown substantially, driven by expanding domestic containerboard capacity and, in some years, constrained collection. The United Kingdom has emerged as the largest extra-EU import source, reflecting both genuine trade flows and the post-Brexit statistical reclassification.

The 2021 price shock was the most significant market disruption of the decade, with unit prices to key Asian partners more than doubling in a single year. While prices have since moderated, they remain above pre-2020 levels, suggesting a structurally tighter market. Looking ahead, the EU's OCC trade balance will depend on the interplay between continued demand growth in Asia, domestic collection and consumption trends, and the policy environment governing waste paper trade in both exporting and importing countries.